The First 100 days

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by theiioftx, Nov 10, 2016.

  1. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    Daines and Johnson had legitimate gripes as they wanted higher deductions for pass-through business income. They rightly fought for more relief for small to medium business owners, and won bringing the deduction impact to lower the tax rate to under 30% for pass-throughs.

    Take a wild guess which two are raising hell and refusing to go along unless they cut back tax breaks to shrink the deficit impact....Corker and Flake. Suddenly these two are staunch budget hawks. :rolleyes1:

    Coincidence the ones trying to dilute the tax breaks and potential positive impacts are the two retiring Senators who openly fight with DT?

    They were a 'no' unless automatic triggers were put in to increase taxes if growth wasn't up to par with projections.

    The trigger approach was ruled out of bounds in regards to requiring a majority vote and would change it to the 60 vote threshold.

    Supposedly those two through a fit and demanded $350 to $400 billion be removed before they agree.

    To appease them they're considering raising the corp tax rate a few points to around 22%, or adding automatic tax increases in future years. Either proposal is bs and further damaging the intended results.
     
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  2. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    John Cornyn says the Rs have the votes to pass tax bill
     
  3. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    I wonder what those last second re-writes look like.
     
  4. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    WSJ just said that Flake and Corker are being ignored and the bill will be passed 50-50 with Pence tiebreak. The other re-writes are about pass through income for small biz.
     
  5. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    Flake made official statement saying he's a "yes". Collins is in now too after receiving SALT deductions and medical expense deductions.

    Lot of concessions going on today. Kinda worried how this bill will look upon passage.
     
  6. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Some of this brings it closer to the house version. I’m glad the Corker tax increases in the outer years are gone. I hope the Corp tax rate is permanent too.
     
  7. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    If the corporate cut isn't permanent, then I don't think it'll have the desired economic effect because of the long term uncertainty. I'd rather the cut be smaller but permanent than bigger but temporary.
     
  8. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 2,500+ Posts

    For a bill to pass under reconciliation rules, it can't go out more than 10 years. They'd need 60 votes to make it permanent (or use the nuclear option again).

    And by the way, what you are suggesting is what I've heard from a couple of centrist Democrats. It's probably what a compromise bill would look like.
     
  9. I35

    I35 5,000+ Posts

    One word for these two. "SWAMP!"
     
  10. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    If centrist Democrats would go along with that, then I'd at least explore that option and try getting to 60. For example, cutting the corporate rate to 24 percent rather than 20 percent would still be a substantial cut. I'd rather lock that in than have rates go back to 35 percent in 10 years.
     
  11. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 2,500+ Posts

    I agree. To get enough Democrats on board, you’d have to remove some of the provisions that stick it to NY, NJ, CT, MA, and CA. Of course, the far-right Republicans would oppose this, but centrist Republicans recognize the injustice of raising taxes on the states that are already the biggest net givers to the Federal treasury.
     
  12. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Some of this is politics. Obviously if you have to stick it to somebody, why not do it people who are hostile to you? However, it seems foolish as well to be that blatant about it. Those states are blue. Trump isn't going to carry them no matter what he does. However, most high-tax states do have Republican areas that elect Republicans to Congress - enough of them to matter. If you are a Republican congressman who represents a suburban area of Los Angeles or Staten Island, how do you vote for this?

    Nevertheless, this is also a complication of having to deal with reconciliation rules. I'm sure they'd prefer not to gut the deductions if they could.

    One thing I wonder about is how many Democrats could go along even if they wanted to. Some Senate Democrats aren't staunch liberals, but could they overcome a likely primary challenge for helping deliver a policy victory to Trump? I'm no so sure that they could.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2017
  13. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I think several Dems will get on board once they are convinced it will pass.
    There is another election on the way.
     
  14. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Looks like the Senate version .....
    -- Cuts taxes for families and business
    -- Doubles child tax credit
    -- Doubles teacher's tax credit
    -- Repeals Obamacare individual mandate
    -- Allows drilling in ANWR
    -- Taxes College Endowments
     
  15. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    Didn't realize it, but this process is far from over. Lot of differences in the House and Senate bills. The final compromise bill has to pass both chambers again.

    Good luck keeping 2 or more Rep Senators from backing out over adjustments made to form the final version.

    We already know Corker is out as he never went in. Only have one defection left to lose for the final vote to pass.
     
  16. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    WTF is this in the Senate Bill? This absolutely has to change, what a sh*tshow. Delaying the corp tax reduction until 2019, are they f'n insane?

    Corporate rate delay
    One of the most significant sections of the bill is the massive tax cut for corporations. Both bills would take the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. However, the Senate cut would happen in 2019, while the House bill would have the 20% rate kick in next year.

    When the Senate unveiled its bill last month, Wall Street reacted to news of the delay with a 100-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

    Conservatives see no reason to delay what they believe will be an economic boom from cutting the corporate tax, and some worry about the impact on next year's midterm elections.

    "It would mean that the economy wouldn't improve like it needs to so we would lose the majority in the House and Senate, but the Democrats would take power just in time to take credit for the economy improving because of what the Senate did," Rep. Louie Gohmert, a hardline conservative from Texas, told reporters Thursday.
     
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  17. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  18. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Trump was just at a fundraiser in Manhattan. Here is one of the things he reportedly said --

    “All of the new numbers just came out that they have at the RNC.
    Unless they (the Dems) have somebody that we don’t know about, right now we’re unbeatable.”


    [​IMG]
     
  19. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Global stocks are heading towards the $100 Trillion mark
    They gained another whopping $5.2T this week alone
    Which is roughly equal to 125% of global GDP

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I'm not sure what facts Kirk is using to support his claim that it's the biggest middle class tax cut since the Reagan era, but I can see why some would be concerned. The rate cuts aren't very big, and the doubling of the standard deduction is a crappy deal if there are at least 4 people in your family, because of the lost exemptions. Are the small rate cuts and expanded child credits enough to make up for it? It depends on your income and how many kids you have. It's certainly possible to have a tax increase.
     
  21. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Deez, I have 4 kids. I am the test case for this. Note Texas loses the sales tax exemption, so the rate cuts hopefully make up for that (I itemize property tax, mortgage interest and charity). Not sure it will also make up for the lost exemptions of child 3 and 4 - that’s where the expanded child tax credit comes in. Under the current rules, most of my child tax credits phase out. I understand the new child tax credits phase out later. Long story short, I’ll let you know. Even if I pay more, due to my investment holdings, I probably come out ahead 10x. Most high income professionals will be in the same boat as I. I think most people of my ilk understand the trade off.
     
  22. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I'm in a similar boat, and I'm still trying to figure out what'll happen to us. We'll either break even or get a sight cut or a slight increase. Frankly, we need the corporate rate cut more than we need individual rate cuts, so I don't have a big problem with my taxes not dropping a lot. However, the bill is being sold as a big middle class tax cut, and I'm a little concerned about the political ramifications of claiming this. Eventually people are going to file tax returns under this law, and I'm not sure how happy they'll be when they see that they didn't really get much, if any, tax relief and might get hit with an increase.
     
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  23. UTChE96

    UTChE96 2,500+ Posts

    Depending on whether the final bill is closer to the House or Senate version, I could get a slight tax cut or a pretty substantial one due to how the marriage penalty is treated. I am surprised that the House version left the marriage penalty in for some tax brackets.
     
  24. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  25. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    The bet is that it will create jobs and raise incomes (due to lower labor supply). This is why the Dems are so fearful of this.
     
  26. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    And I think it will create jobs and raise incomes, because I'm a supply-sider. However, it should be sold on that truthful basis rather than on the false basis that it's a big middle class tax cut.
     
  27. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Deez when is the last time you heard the truth from any political party when a more positive position/spin is possible - truth is not an issue.
     
  28. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Politicians lie all the time, but usually the lies have "plausible deniability." There's room to BS and make excuses for why the lie isn't actually a lie. For the middle class people who aren't going to get any relief or who might get a tax increase, there isn't any such room.

    Also, remember, Trump isn't supposed to be like other politicians.
     
  29. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Since the low in February 2016, the global market has added $24.7 trillion in market value.

    That's more than the whole thing was worth in 2009.
     
  30. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

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