I think right now the status of college conference realignment is like a horse race. There are two horses in this particular race, which are the Big 12 and the ACC. Unlike traditional "fair and square" races, however, there is a “Manipulator” in this race. That would be ESPN. The winner of the race will win various prizes. Financial lucre. Stability. Prestige. Beyond these prizes, however, the winning conference will position itself to win the biggest prize of all: Notre Dame. Which also happens to be, not coincidentally, the Manipulator's end goal: Notre Dame and its vast television market. Right now, Notre Dame has 3 viable choices when the day comes – and it will come – when Notre Dame joins a conference. There is the B1G. The ACC. And the Big 12. For those who are certain Notre Dame will join the B1G, you can stop reading right now and move to another thread because your work here is done. For those who understand that a large group of Notre Dame people absolutely detest the B1G, based on valid historical reasons, money be damned, read on. When the Big 12 and ACC left the starting gate, the Manipulator aided the ACC in two critical ways: (a) Syracuse and Pittsburgh, and (b) Texas. The Manipulator, coveting control of Notre Dame’s television rights from NBC, directed the ACC to add Syracuse and Pittsburgh, as bait to lure Notre Dame. Furthermore, when Oklahoma’s Boren decided to take OU to the PAC this past fall, the Manipulator saw that Texas became exasperated, and seized the opportunity to stack the deck against the Big 12 by putting Texas and the ACC together, hoping a deal would be struck, which would virtually guarantee Notre Dame's riches to ESPN. Thus, with this tremendous jump out of the gate, aided by the Manipulator, causing the Big 12 to stumble, the ACC threatened to run away with the race before it reached the first turn. Notre Dame has many goals it wants a conference to deliver before it would ever even consider joining. There’s associating with academic prestige. There’s connecting with its eastern fanbase. There’s protecting its recruiting grounds in the northeastern corridor, especially in New York City. And, of course, money is a factor. The ACC listened to ESPN and added Syracuse and Pittsburgh, both of which have long-term future sports connections with Notre Dame. Connecticut ended its association with Notre Dame because Notre Dame wanted to play games in New York City, and Connecticut felt that was unfair. So, at ESPN’s bidding, the ACC passed over Connecticut in favor of Syracuse, which had replaced Connecticut on Notre Dame's schedule. (Never cross off Notre Dame from your athletics schedule.) But then it happened. The ACC stopped listening to the Manipulator. The ACC failed and refused to find a way to add Texas. When Texas comes knocking on your door, with his buddy ESPN, who also happens to be your boss, you always say, "come in". In 2010, Texas’ dalliance with the PAC was real and almost happened. In 2012, Texas’ dalliance with the PAC was a mere subterfuge, and part of ESPN's attempt to leverage the ACC into taking Texas. But it didn’t work. The ACC passed on one of the few diamond schools: Texas. And that decision may have sealed the ACC’s fate. The ACC passing on Texas allowed the Big 12 to catch up to the ACC in the back-stretch. Then, with input from ESPN, the Big 12 added West Virginia, opening up all manner of opportunity in the east, and the Big 12 suddenly bolted a length ahead of the ACC as the race headed into the far turn. Without Texas, there is now only one way for the ACC to win the race: The ACC must add Notre Dame immediately. Not 10 years from now. Not 5 years from now. Right now. And that appears to be problematical. The Manipulator would be thrilled if Notre Dame joined the ACC right now. No problem for ESPN. The Manipulator does not care how it winds up with Notre Dame's television rights – it only knows it covets them. ESPN owns the ACC’s total package of TV rights, including Tiers 1, 2, and 3. And if Notre Dame was forced to join a conference right now, there is a significant chance they would choose the ACC, thus providing Notre Dame's television rights to ESPN. Yes, Notre Dame would be very unhappy losing its Tier 3 rights, true, but the ACC does fulfill all the rest of Notre Dame’s conference goals that we discussed above. But the reality is that Notre Dame is not forced to join a conference today. Notre Dame has not yet abandoned its designs on setting up its own network. And Texas, by all accounts, is giving Notre Dame as much “advice” as possible about television networks, Tier 3, and “what is in Notre Dame’s best interests.” At the same time, the ACC has discovered, to its horror, that it cannot command the same level of TV contract that the Big 12 can command. Syracuse and Pittsburgh might be decent northeastern bait to lure Notre Dame (if Notre Dame was hard-pressed today, which it isn't), but Syracuse and Pittsburgh do not move the needle very much for purposes of the ACC's television contract. Texas would have moved the needle, but ACC hubris killed that deal. And so, by ignoring the Manipulator, by failing to add Texas, now the ACC is approaching dire straits, losing ground in the final turn. The Manipulator has now turned away from the ACC and is aiding the Big 12 and its most important client: Texas and its LHN (which ESPN owns lock, stock, and barrel). The Manipulator has turned away from the ACC because ESPN now sees the Big 12 as the most likely path to it eventually obtaining Notre Dame's massive television rights, which is the Manipulator's "precious". The ACC must hope against hope that there is no automatic escalator clause in the new Big 12 contract that will raise the total payout by $2.05M per school, based on the added conference championship game. The ACC must pray there is no list of designated schools, the addition of which automatically increases the Tier 1 contract payout. The ACC must hope there is no “opt out” clause that will allow the Big 12 out of the contract to take it to the open market if Big 12 expands to 12 (or further) – of course giving ESPN the right of first refusal on any new contract. The ACC is falling dangerously behind the lead horse. It’s bad enough that the new ACC contract will pay each school less than $15M per year, but it may be fatal to the ACC when the new Big 12 deal will pay $19.2M per year, not including Tier 3, plus if there’s an "automatic escalator" with “opt out” clause? That means trouble in paradise. The ACC simply miscalculated. By refusing Texas, the ACC failed to take into account, first, money, second, ESPN, and third, the degree of endemic dissatisfaction among the ACC’s football-first schools over league priorities. Swofford is looking more and more like a very poor jockey. Leadership is important. With its new $19.2M contract, complete with bells and whistles and escalators and opt out clauses, the Manipulator has now equipped the Big 12 with the ammunition to show Florida State, Miami, and Clemson the cold, hard dollars signed, sealed, and delivered. And if you could make less than $15M per year with one league versus $25M or more with another league, which league would you choose? Especially if, like Florida State, you’re running in the red? Especially if you can bring several of your regional friends with you? And if only one team leaves the ACC, what does that say about ACC stability? If you’re Notre Dame, and it looks like the ACC might lose some schools, wouldn’t you wait to see what happens? The home stretch is approaching. And so here we are. The ACC is falling further and further behind the Big 12 in the race for survival. Not to mention the SEC. The finish line is in sight. If Florida State, Clemson, and Miami merge with the Big 12 that would give the Big 12 a significant southeastern, seaboard presence, which ought to satisfy Notre Dame's needs in the southeast. More broadly, however, the ACC would be effectively smashed as an attractive league for Notre Dame, both now and in the future. Race over. Winner Big 12. Not including Notre Dame, there would still be two slots left for two schools in the northeastern corridor (Rutgers? Maryland? Pittsburgh? Boston College?). Or one school in the northeastern corridor plus some other school with national potential (BYU?). Or perhaps another nice regional school (Georgia Tech? Virginia Tech? Louisville?). Thus does the ACC become an afterthought, leaving Notre Dame with only two realistic options going into the future: The Big 12 and the B1G. I like the Big 12’s chances in that matchup under these circumstances. And so does ESPN.
Notre Dame must never feel like they're being forced into conference affiliation, and there's a window right now where they don't have to make that decision. I agree with you X that that's going to be fatal for the ACC. A lot of people argue that history will keep Florida State, Miami, and Clemson from making the jump. Florida State and Miami haven't been in the ACC that long to have that much history with that conference, and the athletic director at Clemson has strong ties to the Big XII. All three of those schools are "football-first" schools in a basketball-first conference where the real power resides along Tobacco Road. It's safe to say that all three ACC schools, and perhaps Georgia Tech and Maryland as well, are doing their due diligence right now, studying conference deals and payout projections, while waiting to see who the new Big XII commissioner will be. The new commissioner will be crucial to this. If he is pro-expansion, has strong ties to the media, especially ESPN, and if he can bring a sense of peace and cooperation to the Big XII, it will be just a matter of a short time before the conference goes to fourteen teams, probably right now adding Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and Louisville, and goes back to having a lucrative conference championship game. IF that happens, and I agree with you X that it could likely happen before the end of this year, the Big XII will be in very good shape WHEN Notre Dame opts to join a conference. I am curious to hear if anyone else has heard anything further about efforts to lure Notre Dame's non-football sports to the Big XII. I think that's a big deal in the pursuit of the Irish as well. I'm imagining a new Big XII lineup in no more than a couple of years that looks like this: Big XII East West Virginia Florida State Miami Clemson Louisville Kansas Kansas State Big XII West UT OU Oklahoma State Tech Baylor TCU Iowa State If, down the road, Notre Dame wants to come aboard, add them and BYU, Notre Dame to the East and BYU to the West. I understand that this isn't your daddy's Big XII and the geography is skewed a bit, but I don't think that will matter so much, and the tradeoff is you get a conference that is strong on both sides, unlike the old Big XII, where the north didn't hold up its' end of the deal. I still think when realignment totally shakes out, the power conferences will be the B1G, the Big XII, the SEC, the PAC 12, and a watered-down ACC that's pulled in any reasonable teams out of what's left of the Big (L)east to go with what's left of the ACC. They'll still be a powerhouse basketball league, and relevant, at best, in football, which is about where the ACC is right now. I do think ultimately the SEC will go to sixteen teams by taking Va. Tech and one more, probably UNC, from the ACC. I don't see either the B1G or PAC 12 taking anyone else unless Notre Dame comes into play, and in any event, I don't see the Irish headed to either of those conferences. Thoughts?
coolhorn: It's seems like everytime DeLoss Dodds makes a public appearance wherein he's asked about expansion, he mentions Notre Dame. For example, here Dodds is quoted about Notre Dame out in Lufkin back on February 4. I do think Dodds is making a concerted effort with respect to Notre Dame, as is, currently, the ACC, as they must. The schools that are rumored to be considering jumping as a "package" are Florida State, Clemson, and Miami. In fact, there was supposed to have been an "unofficial" meeting between FSU and Big 12 reps as recently as around March 1 or so. One of the complaints FSU mentions in discussions with unofficial Big 12 reps is the ACC's seemingly intentional efforts to make football success difficult for the non-North Carolina schools. For example, FSU especially wants a bye week prior to playing Florida, or at least an OOC cupcake opponent. But they always seem to get a conference game. They complain about always getting stuck with a Thursday away game, never a Thursday home game. They complain about the ACC having tied up their Tier 3 rights for so long (2023), so money is an issue. Remember, FSU is running in the red. And now as an overarching issue it has become clear to the ACC football schools that, short of joining Notre Dame, they are consigned to forever making less money than the other 3 big leagues. And not a little bit less, either, which would be tolerable, if rankling -- we're talking about a gap of more than $10M per year once Tier 3 is completely accounted for (at least with respect to the Big 12 and, more importantly, the SEC). The ACC made an absolutely critical error in failing to join Texas when it had the chance -- a move that FSU strongly favored, BTW. To say that Florida State, Miami, and Clemson are unhappy in the ACC would be correct. But would they actually change conferences? Clemson is very interested, and might make a change even if no other ACC school follows them. OTOH, Clemson really wants a regional partner; namely, FSU, so Clemson becomes even more likely if another ACC school joins them. Miami is very interested, too, but only within the context of joining with FSU, and under no other conditions. Miami wants FSU, but doesn't move, for example, with Clemson without FSU. As for FSU, they insist upon Miami. It kind of boils down to FSU. FSU is warm to the idea, not as hot as Clemson or Miami, but they are getting warmer. As you suggest, a big key is who is named as Big 12 Conference Commissioner. Because of the disdain with which the ACC trio holds for Swofford, they will make no final decision until they see who the Big 12 chooses as its Commissioner. They don't want to jump from one league where there's a non-cooperative Commissioner into another league where there's a non-cooperative Commissioner. So, who the commissioner is, and what he stands for is very important to the ACC trio. The leaking of this new Big 12 contract , which is rumored to contain provisions specifically for expansion, will keep the griddle hot until a new Commissioner is named. Personally, I think we should draft Oliver Luck even if he doesn't want the job. As for the teams, I hope we "merge" (the politically correct term for the ACC schools) Florida State, Miami, and Clemson. I doubt Notre Dame comes at once so you need to add at least one more to get to 14. We need to save #15 for Notre Dame for the day. There's a plethora of schools that could get the final two slots (#14 and #16): BYU (without game forfeiture, otherwise no), Maryland, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Louisville, Boston College (and that's my order of preference). There has been some form of unofficial (or official) contact with all of these schools, with degrees of interest varying from "thanks, but no thanks", to, "huh, let me think about it some more", to, "here's my application" (BYU and Louisville). Actually, I would be remiss if I didn't mention Arkansas, too, but folks, please, Arkansas ain't commin'. So who knows for the last two? As a final thought; remember: The ACC gambit may cave, crumble, and fail. Think about how close Texas and the other four came to joining the PAC in 2010, but it failed, literally, just before the official announcement. The more schools that are involved, the greater the chance for failure. If the ACC plan fails, there's always "Plan B", which is BYU and Louisville, at least as of right now. BTW, coolhorn, just a matter of information: Do you know it's not "Big XII"? Check out the box in the top, right-hand corner. Isn't that a hoot? This was pointed out to me on another thread, and I thought it was hilarious. Instructions straight from the league office! Can you imagine? Obviously I am easily amused.
I don't claim to be any kind of insider. I don't have an "asset" and no "big cigars" talk to me. That being said, and as Bob Dylan wrote, "You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows". The Big XII (I still prefer it that way.) can't sit at ten teams too long. They could go to twelve tomorrow...Louisville and BYU have been in play for a while and both have indicated they'd love a spot in the Big XII. However, I agree that UT WANTS Notre Dame as a partner, and recognizes for that to happen, the Irish need some traveling partners and a presence on the east coast. That's why I think the issue needs to be settled with the ACC teams before Louisville and BYU come into play. That's also why I think the next expansion will be to fourteen teams, not twelve, and Notre Dame won't be one of the four new teams added. I also think Dodds understands that, and has a good long range plan to attract the Irish to the Big XII. It's too early to rule out any teams for realignment right now, but I have a hunch FSU, Miami, Clemson, and Louisville are in the lead, to use the racing parlance from the OP in this thread. BYU and Notre Dame are the independents right now, and neither HAS to make any decisions immediately regarding conference affiliation. This whole realignment of the Big XII is going to require patience, but perhaps not too much patience. It's also going to require people to get over the idea of a conference that feels like a "regional" conference, as the old Big XII did. Those days are gone.
coolhorn: You don't have to be an insider. You just have to search out the so-called insiders, cull them, and evaluate the information. When you get a ticket for "illegal Big 12 trademark confusion" from Big 12 headquarters, give me a shout and I'll try to fix it for you. I warn you now that may require you to write "Big 12" on a chalkboard 100 times. I really don't see the Big 12 moving on BYU or Louisville prior to playing out the ACC gambit. And that won't be over until a new Commissioner is named. Those football ACC schools are damned afraid of losing their edge to the SEC, given the paltry contract renegotiation ESPN is offering due to the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh. The ACC trio is undoubtedly thinking hard, hoping a miracle happens to help them out of their dilemma. So, I think Louisville and BYU are on ice for awhile. Well, at least Louisville is on ice. BYU might be added tomorrow if they have an epiphany and decide to play nice with others. I personally doubt they ever drop their demand for Sunday game forfeiture, but we'll see. BYU would be a great addition, geographic outlier status notwithstanding. Put'um in the group with Texas -- I love trips to the Rocky Mountains. I just don't like game forfeiture. I doubt the league does either. Yup, Notre Dame continues to be the key. And even if Notre Dame goes nowhere short-term, doesn't it make sense to set up your conference so that it is attractive long-term? The Domers love playing Florida State and Miami, and they love recruiting Florida. And Clemson keeps ND close to Georgia and North Carolina, which the Domers also love to recruit. As for patience, most likely the next big signpost is the hiring of the new Commissioner, and that deadline is July 1. As for the ACC trio, I wouldn't expect to see decisions one way or the other until the July and August time-frame. If nothing happens by late August, it may be onto Plan B. The thing is, a 16-team conference does not have to feel all impersonal if it's broken up into regional pods of four where the pods play a different pod every year. In this configuration, you can have 3 pod games per year with your very closest regional partners, a protected rivalry game every year with another team, plus a second protected rivalry game (played every 2 out of 3 years). That's 5 conference games that are stable through the years. This configuration also gives you 8 conference games per year, leaving 4 OOC games per year. A freshman enters school and before the end of his junior year, his school has played every other team in the league at least once. You really can have your cake and eat it, too, in a 16-team league, correctly configured.
X, we basically agree on the template for Big XII expansion. The only thing where we might differ is Louisville vis-a-vis BYU. I think the 'Ville is more in play right now than BYU, and here's why. Louisville has no problem playing Sunday games, while I'm not sure the Morman church will allow BYU any latitude on that issue. That issue is going to be important to the Big XII, and ESPN going forward. Louisville has a little bit better-rounded athletic program than BYU, largely because of their long term basketball success. Louisville also has the advantage of being in a larger tv market, AND that market is on the east side of SEC territory. That's important for more than one reason. Louisville's location not only makes them a good traveling partner for West Virginia, but their location also makes them a good traveling partner for FSU, Clemson, and Miami if those three decide to head to the Big XII. Louisville's location also makes them attractive to Notre Dame when the Irish start looking toward conference affiliation. BYU is not an unattractive target for the Big XII, but AFTER the next round of moves, ONLY if Notre Dame is looking toward the Big XII, and I would expect BYU would only get one chance to change their minds about Sunday play. Otherwise, probably in this order, Maryland, Georgia Tech, and maybe Virginia or Va. Tech (If interested) will be looked at as the 16th team in the Big XII. I think BYU's being considered, but right now, I don't think they hold the edge over Louisville.
coolhorn: Yea, you could be right. Truth is, I don't think BYU ever joins the Big 12. I do find BYU fascinating from a marketing pov. BYU has a national television following -- it is not merely limited to Provo or even to Utah. Due to its national following, BYU also has massive cross-marketing potential. Not surprisingly, BYU also draws very well at 60,265, for number 26 in the nation. But do I really think they'll become Big 12 members? I do not think BYU will give up on some core points, so this exercise with BYU is merely academic, and I will stop now. No, I don't think BYU ever joins the Big 12. If we merge Florida State, Miami, and Clemson, then we need to get real picky, real quick. That's why Louisville is further down my list. For any school, their value to a conference is three-fold: (a) TV revenue, (b) post-season revenue, and (c) cross-marketing (which is indirect TV revenue). Louisville carries their DMA, and that's a plus, but their DMA is limited -- it is the 49th biggest market. Outside their DMA -- the greater Louisville area -- people don't tune into Louisville. Outside greater Louisville, people are either watching SEC ball or they're watching B1G ball. Not even fans of the BE tune into Louisville games like you and I might tune into, say, Kansas State v. Texas Tech. Have you ever watched a regular season Louisville game? That's because they're rarely nationally televised. Louisville will hit post-season play from time-to-time, but how much can we really consistently count on them to make a bowl game in a very tough Big 12? Furthermore, Louisville fans haven't typically tuned into other Big East games. You will get little cross-marketing with Louisville. Might that change in the Big 12? Maybe. But there's no historical reason to believe it will change. Louisville's gameday draw is nothing fantastic, either, coming in at 48,538, which is 46th in the nation. Louisville also lacks any real intangibles. They don't command any area beyond their immediate metropolitan area. They are not a traditional football power. They don't move the needle in attracting Notre Dame (I disagree with you on this point for several reasons). OTOH, Louisville does play excellent basketball, they have new and really nice facilities, with very good endowment. Correct geography, too, as you point out. Overall, though, Louisville is far from a sure-fire winner IMO, especially if the ACC can be breached and additional schools are available. If the ACC trio join, I would focus more on the northeastern corridor and ACC schools like Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Pittsburgh, North Carolina State, or even Rutgers. Having said all this, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Louisville joins the conference. It definitely could happen. I suspect that if Louisville joins, however, it will be out of necessity to balance a more important addition.
I think Virginia, Va. Tech, and Georgia Tech all three are more attractive candidates for the Big 12 than Louisville. I think Maryland is an equally attractive candidate. I compared Louisville to BYU, and by that comparison, Louisville, I think, would have the inside track to one of the next four slots in the Big 12. I've seen nothing to indicate that Virginia or Va. Tech are interested in leaving the ACC. I've seen some talk that Maryland and Georgia Tech might be interested. Pitt might make an interesting alternative, but I have to wonder how ready they'd be to move again after just getting into the ACC. Boston College's two attractions are their history with Notre Dame, and their location in Boston. I don't see them happening. Notre Dame's interest in Louisville would have nothing to do with the school itself, and everything to do with their location. The Irish would love to have a game or two every year in SEC/ACC territory, and the 'Ville fits that description. Louisville would be more attractive in the Big 12 than the Big (L)east, even if they aren't a yearly title contender. I'm not pushing for Louisville to the Big 12...I think there might be better options. I just think that when all is said and done, the Cards will be in the Big 12.
I am so tired of the BYU does not play on Sunday crap. How many Texas Longhorn games do you watch on Sundays? The ones that are not replays? I don't see any issue with that whatsoever. I only know of one Texas football game on a Sunday night, I am sure we will never do that again. Basketball, I don't remember too many Sunday games. Track meets? Swim Meets? Baseball, what is wrong with starting the series on Thursday, or having a double header on Saturday?
I really don't care if BYU does or doesn't play on Sunday, and I'd have no problem with them being added to the Big 12. I think BYU brings a lot to the table, and they'd be a natural fit to the west side of a newly-expanded Big 12. I just think the conference is going to look in a different direction when it gets to the point of offering slots. I'm not saying BYU won't be a Big 12 member...they're just not as likely as some other teams out there.
Xover, the one thing I'm most happy about is the idea of a ten-member conference without a championship game is pretty much a dead issue. With these developments, we are clearly headed toward a 12-16 team conference, maybe not this year, but certainly in the near future. It is very hard for the Big 12 to defend the concept of not having a championship game when TV revenue is the driving force and the PAC 12, Big Ten, SEC, and ACC have conference championships. Hopefully, if we make the right choice for commissioner, we can land Florida State and Clemson. I do think Miami would be very likely to join if Florida State and Clemson were to join. I'm still not thrilled with Louisville, but I can see why the Big 12 is interested in a potential offer. This conference has come a long way in two years. Can you imagine what A&M would think if the Big 12 were to land Notre Dame, BYU, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech?
I can't speak for anyone else, but personally, I could care less what a team we used to play, one that's totally irrelevant, thinks about the Big 12, now, or once it's loaded with new members. Nothing's in ink yet, but get used to the idea of at least a fourteen team Big 12 in no more than two years, and probably sooner. If the conference does go to fourteen, there's a really good chance that a year or two later it'll be at sixteen, and will be no worse than one of the two most powerful conferences around. Quite a big improvement from a few months ago, when everybody was ready to pull the plug on the Big 12. As for the farm school, let them enjoy the prison lovin' they're about to get in their new neighborhood. Showtime will probably do a series on aggy in the SEC and call it "Jailbait".
BYU folks are not shy about telling you they will forfeit Sunday games. And BYU forfeitures do happen. BYU forfeited a NC game in some off-women's sport as recently as 2010. They've forfeited College World Series games in the past. A green light to forfeit games does bug the dog out of me. I might have been a little rough on Louisville in my post upthread. Say we merge FSU, Miami, and Clemson. We need 1 to get to 14. Do you go all out to try to turn Georgia Tech to finish off a southeastern group? (Answer: Yes) Or do you add 1 further north to give WVU some regional partner, and, hopefully, to entice ND? That would mean evaluating Louisville, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Virginia Tech. I think Virginia Tech would be the best add, but even if the ACC is breached, isn't VPI likely to stay with VA in the ACC unless the B1G comes for VA, allowing VPI to the SEC? Scratch off the Hokies. Personally, after VPI, I would go for Rutgers, totally on potential, but I'm in the vast minority here. Scratch off RU. Really, doesn't that mean it will boil down to Louisville, Maryland, and Pittsburgh? Any of those schools are great for WVU, but Pitt and Maryland are probably "best" for WVU. Let's look at these schools: Pittsburgh Panthers: 28,823 students / $2.54B endowment Pittsburgh Greater Metropolitan Area = 2,447,393 Silver's TV viewers = 831,496 (37th) Brewer's Valuations = $44M (47th) Stadium = 59,000 / 52,165 (Off Campus: Three Rivers Stadium) Bowls since 1990 = 11 (BCS = 0) AP Top 20 since 1990 = 1 NC = 9 (Last 1976) Heisman Trophy = 1 (Tony Dorsett) ACC Championships since 1990 = 0 Current NFL = 23 All-Time Record = 677-490-42 (.577) AAU Maryland Terrapins: 37,641 students / $672M endowment Baltimore Washington Metropolitan Area = 8,924,087 Silver's TV viewers = 474,059 (58th) Brewer's Valuations = $14.99M (58th) Stadium = 54,000 / 42,355 (Campus: Capital One Field at Byrd Stadium) Bowls since 1990 = 8 (BCS = 0) AP Top 20 since 1990 = 4 NC = 2 (Last 1953) ACC Championships since 1990 = 1 Heisman Trophy = 0 Current NFL = ? All-Time Record = 611-535-43 (.532) AAU Louisville Cardinals: 19,843 students / $762M endowment Louisville Metropolitan Area (Kentuckiana) = 1,177,883 Silver's TV viewers = 300,443 (73rd) Brewer's Valuations = $30.4M (51st) Stadium = 55,000 / 48,538 (Campus: Papa John's Cardinals Stadium) Bowls since 1990 = 13 (BCS 1) AP Top 20 since 1990 = 6 NC = 0 Conference Championships since 1990 = 5 (3 CUSA; 2 BE) Heisman Trophy = 0 Current NFL = 16 All-Time Record = 455-438-17 (.509) Not AAU I listed Pittsburgh first because I think, overall, Pitt has the best numbers, especially among people who classify themselves as Pitt fans. However, Pitt's football success has come almost exclusively prior to 1982 (the Marino years). Still, Pitt has the best gameday draw of the three, and its AAU. For pure football prowess, Louisville has had the better recent success, although it came in the CUSA/BE. Louisville's problem is its limited market and limited fanbase. Plus the UL fanbase is not great for cross-marketing (watching other league games that don't include the Cardinals). Maryland has a happy placement in that huge metropolitan area that kind of makes your eyes pop out. Still, the Terps' fanbase is not the size you would hope to see in such a huge market, especially with the number of students Maryland graduates. Maryland has had more gridiron success in recent years than Pitt, but not as much as Louisville. I think by looking at this information, you have to give greater thought to Pitt and Maryland over Louisville. I would probably choose Maryland out of the 3 because of its greater potential. The criticism of my choice is that potential means you haven't done it yet. You can see why the Big 12 was targeting Pitt earlier.
I'll echo something Hayden Fry said after he got the University of Iowa head coaching job. Anytime you get the chance, you want to be head coach of a school that starts with "The University Of..." Maryland, as the state's flagship university, has a solid basketball history, a football program with God-awful uniforms that has under-performed for years, and a world of potential. (Yep, Coach Royal said potential means you ain't done it yet.) They also have the advantage of sitting in large tv markets on the east coast. Pitt's in a big enough tv market, and has won enough in football over their history to merit consideration...indeed, they might be the best choice for a fourteenth team when expansion rolls around. The problem is they just moved to the ACC, and may not want to go through the trouble and expense of another move so quickly. Louisville's already been covered. They have some good points, mostly related to their location and their basketball program. They have some drawbacks that have been covered too. Each of these three programs would have to seriously ramp up their football program if they were to be invited to join the Big 12. I'm no sure I have a pecking order, a list of favorites, among the three. I will say that the potential of Maryland intrigues me...with the right coaching hires, that program could take off. I didn't include BYU in this discussion because, frankly, I think they rank below other candidates for inclusion in the Big 12, and I don't believe when all is said and done that they'll be in this conference. I will say that all of this speculation sure makes the off-season more interesting. I am anxious to see who the new Big 12 commissioner will be. If the right choice is made, realignment won't be too far behind.
Many good points made above. I feel conferences are eventually going to 16 teams with the conferences being based on B1G, PAC, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big East. I suspect the merged CUSA and MWC will be picked apart to fill out the main conferences. I have not thought through what will happen to the small remaining Div 1 conferences (Sunbelt, Southland, MAC, WAC). Maybe the CUSA/MWC and these others will form the 7th and 8th big conferences or they will split off from Div 1. In general, they can not compete on a regular basis with the big 6 conferences. I prefer geographic conferences but that seems to be a dead issue these days. I thought I'd throw out my ordered preference: GT - new large market, good academics, good traditions and sports history FSU - new large market, good academics, good traditions and sports history Clemson - new market, good traditions and sports history, not sure on academics Pitt - good market, rival for WVU, good sports history, good academics UNC - doubt they would leave ACC, good academics and sports history, good market to add, good rival for Clemson UVA - doubt they would leave ACC without VT but would be great rivals for WVU and Pitt, if UNC declines, take both VT and UVA to reach 16. Assuming UNC, UVa and VT are not possible, I would add USF, an up and coming state university in large market state that would provide natural rival for FSU. This could provide conference exposure in Florida, Georgia, SC, PA, and possibly Va and NC - quite a swath of markets in east and southeast. That scenario would leave one spot (after adding GT, FSU, Clemson, Pitt & USF) to woo ND with its obvious benefits. The caveat would be that ND agree to participate as an equal member with no special treatments. Personally, I have no great desire to have ND in our conference but admit it would be a plus for the conference. In my perfect world, I would give up Iowa State to provide an 8th team to the eastern division of the revised Big 12. ISU would be picked up by another conference to get to 16.
This is what I'm hoping for: Texas Texas Tech TCU Baylor Oklahoma Oklahoma St Kansas Kansas St Florida St Miami Clemson Georgia Tech Notre Dame West Virginia Maryland Iowa St XOVER, how would a four pod schedule be applied to the above configuration keeping in mind TEXAS should play Oklahoma every year?
Speedway, I'm not the Xman, but I can answer your question about us playing the okies every year. The Big 12 would be like the SEC in that a traditional, existing rivalry game such as the Red River Shootout will be preserved for the good of the conference on tv. Off the top of my head, in a proposed expanded Big 12, UT/OU would be joined by Florida State/Miami, Pitt/West Virginia. and maybe one or two more.
IMO, the best way to preserve the RRR is to put OU into the same pod with Texas, with 2 other Texas schools opposite the Kansas schools, especially with respect to the rivalry games. With Texas and OU in the same pod, Texas could preserve the RRR, also have a yearly rivalry game with ND (on Thanksgiving?), and also, say, invade Florida recruiting grounds.However, that's neither Speedway's dream scenario, nor his request. Here’s an example of a Big 12 structured with either 16 or 20 schools based on Speedway's dream scenario:• Primary protected rival (1st team listed in parenthesis): Play every year, rotating home-and-home.• Secondary protected rival (2nd team listed in parenthesis): Play 2 out of 3 years, rotating home-and-home.• 16 teams: 8 Conference games per year; 4 OOC games per year; (or 7/5 without cross-over games).• 20 teams: 9 Conference games per year; 3 OOC games per year; (or 10/2 with cross-over games).• Divisions change every year.• In all configurations, each school plays every other school in the league no less than every 3 years, as follows: Year 1: Pod 1 & Pod 2 = Division A Pod 3 & Pod 4 = Division B Year 2: Pod 1 & Pod 3 = Division A Pod 2 & Pod 4 = Division B Year 3: Pod 1 & Pod 4 = Division A Pod 2 & Pod 3 = Division B Year 4: Cycle repeats (reverse home-and-home) Southwest Pod 1 “Lone Star”: Texas (Oklahoma; Notre Dame) Texas Tech (Kansas; Iowa State) Texas Christian (Oklahoma State; Miami) Baylor (Kansas State; Georgia Tech) Brigham Young (Louisville, [i]Virginia Tech) [u]Other Possibilities: Tulane, Rice, Houston Northwest Pod 2 “Plains”:[/u][/i][u] [u]Oklahoma (Texas; [i]Florida State) [u]Oklahoma State (Texas Christian; [i]Clemson) [u]Kansas (Texas Tech; [i]Maryland) [u]Kansas State (Baylor; [i]West Virginia) Louisville[/i][/u][i] (Brigham Young, [i]Rutgers[/i]) Other Possibilities: Cincinnati[/i][/i][/u][i][i] Southeast Pod 3 “Dixie”:[/i][/i][/i][/u][/i][/u][/u][u][i][u][i][i][i] Florida State[/i][/i][/i][/u][i][i][i] (Notre Dame; Oklahoma[/i]) Miami[/i][/i][/i][/u][i][i][i] (West Virginia; Texas Christian[/i]) Clemson[/i][/i][i] (Iowa State; Oklahoma State[/i]) Georgia Tech (Maryland; Baylor) Virginia Tech (Rutgers, Brigham Young) Other Possibilities: North Carolina State, South Florida, East Carolina Northeast Pod 4 “Yankee”: Notre Dame (Florida State; Texas) West Virginia (Miami; Kansas State) Maryland (Georgia Tech; Kansas) Iowa State (Clemson; Texas Tech) Rutgers (Virginia Tech, Louisville) Other Possibilities: Pittsburgh, Boston College, Connecticut In all configurations, each school in the league plays every other school in the league no less than every 3 years. A student enters college as a freshman, and his school has played every team in the league after his junior year. For a 16-team league, simply ignore the fifth team in each pod, which then provides 8 conference games per year, consisting of 3 annual pod games, 1 annual cross-over rivalry game, a 2nd cross-over rivalry game (played 2 out of 3 years), plus 4 OOC games per year. A 16-team league is probably the ideal size to attract Notre Dame, which desires a national footprint, yet requires several OOC games to play their most important rivals, including Southern California and Navy. A monster 20-team league would likely require the elimination of any cross-over rivalry games, in which case the 20-team league would provide 9 conference games per year, consisting of 4 annual pod games, plus 3 OOC games per year. Retaining one cross-over rivalry game provides 10 conference games per year, consisting of 4 annual pod games, 1 annual cross-over rivalry game, a 2nd cross-over rivalry game (played 2 out of 3 years), but only 2 OOC games per year. The composition of the divisions also changes each year, thus giving some of the less consistently great programs a better shot at the conference title when they do field a great team. A large league also solves many scheduling problems because the league itself provides significant variety, yet there remains the ability to schedule a generally adequate number of OOC games, especially in a 16-team configuration. These particular configurations ought to command millions of dollars per school per year with respect to Tier 1 and 2 revenue streams, plus Tier 3 on top of that. Any version of this league is also ripe for an “SEC challenge” week, if the two leagues had any interest in that. Hopefully all this reinforces the main point, which is to demonstrate the cohesion, flexibility, and value of a 16-team league, or even a 20-team league, creatively configured. If the ACC is subject to poaching, about the only school which might be considered to be a “long-shot” is Notre Dame. Other reasonably available schools are also included for those who do not like my choices. Debate can be had with respect to which team “properly” aligns with which pod.
The secondary rival aspect seems too manufactured to me. Why not just use two 8-team divisions with 2 games from "other" division each year. All "other" division teams are scheduled once each 4 years. This leaves 3 OOC games per year. Divison winners play in CCG. Traditional rivalries remain for Big 12 teams and similar rivals are available for "other" division teams (WVU, Pitt, FSU, GT, Clemson, Miami?, ND, VT, UVa, Louisville, Maryland?) Sorry, Iowa State just does not fit well in east/west division or 4 pod arrangements, in my opinion. I'd sacrifice Baylor if jettisoning ISU is a no-go. I guess I don't see a great benefit to the 4 pod setup. It seems to complicate scheduling more than it helps. Changing pod composition every few years does not set well with me.
Two reasons, HornSwoggler. #1: The divisional setup causes you to lose an OOC game. The divisional setup configured as you suggest yields 9 Conference + 3 OCC games. The pod setup yields either 7 Conference + 5 OOC games without any cross-over rivalry games, or, if you do employ a cross-over rivalry setup, the yield is 8 Conference + 4 OOC games. Note that the secondary rivalry game is not an additional feature of a 4-pod cross-over rivalry league, but rather, it is a consequence of it. In a pod system, you either have a cross-over rivalry system or you don't. Do you see what I'm saying? #2: The divisional setup also cycles through the entire league every 4 years whereas a pod system cycles through the entire league every 3 years. So, in the divisional setup, you lose one or two OOC games each year plus it takes longer to cycle through the league. Two big negatives. Also note that the pod system with cross-over gives you, essentially, 5 rivalry games per year, which is the same number of rivalry games we had in the old Big 12. The pod system, therefore, is, IMO, a better way to manage a much bigger league, but it functions very similarly to a 12-team league broken up into divisions, yet you command a much larger 16-team footprint, which, if the teams are selected carefully, is making you millions of dollars in additional revenue.
Thanks for the explanation, X. I understand your reasoning now. I don't put the value on the 4th or 5th OOC game that you do. Of course, that feature may be required by some potential expansion candidates like ND. The 9/3 setup is similar to what the Big 12 has now with 10 teams and seems fine to me. With the quality of the added teams and the rotating basis of scheduling, there will be plenty of variety and strength of schedule. I hope we don't end up with multiple weak sister OOC games as training warmups for conference play like was done for years. I fear that 4 or 5 OOC games each year would result in exactly that. Few teams will want to schedule 3 or 4 strong OOC games. The other aspect of the pod system I dislike is the "forced" rivalry. As you laid out in your example, some of your fixed rivalry games don't seem like historic rivalries to me. Maybe they are and I just don't realize it. Another impact of the fixed rivalry game is if your rival is a weaker team, your team then gets a competitive advantage every year over other conference teams outside the weak team's pod. The rotating 2 year "rivalries" are the ones that seem manufactured just to make the 3 year rotation work. If the rotation period is critical, why not eliminate the rivalry games and play a 9/3 schedule where you play your own pod members (3) each year and 2 from each other pod on a rotating 2 year basis. True historic rivalries like Texas-OU would occur at least every 2 years with no special manipulation. In addition, an added meeting might occur in the CCG in any year. The 4th OOC game is given up but a simple scheduling system that is not manipulated results. As with anything, setting priorities and compromise will be needed. It will be interesting to see if any of this comes to fruition.
XOVER, Thanks for the work, very enlightening. How would it work if there were two eight team conferences? You would play all seven teams in your conference. Then the eighth game would be a TBD "playoff game" between conferences with the home team being alternated. Here is an example: West Conference 1. TEXAS 2. Oklahoma 3. TCU 4. Oklahoma St 5. Kansas St 6. Baylor 7. Texas Tech 8. Kansas East Conference 1. Florida St 2. Notre Dame 3. Miami 4. West Virginia 5. Georgia Tech 6. Clemson 7. Maryland 8. Iowa St Eighth Conference Game Texas @ Florida St Notre Dame @ Oklahoma TCU @ Miami West Virginia @ Oklahoma St Kansas St @ Georgia Tech Clemson @ Baylor Texas Tech @ Maryland Iowa St @ Kansas Then the team with the best conference record from each conference plays in the CCG. That provides seven regular conference games every year and an unknown game until the eighth or ninth week of conference play. About the only down side I see is it would not cycle through the whole conference systematically like the four pod system does. It would however make the eighth game a sort of playoff for the CCG. Also give the lower ranked teams a chance to win a sixth game every year and become “Bowl Eligible.” I think both are pretty cool and could command some more TV dollars. What other downfalls do you see with this scenario? For instance, how to prevent a TEXAS vs Florida St or Oklahoma vs Notre Dame rematch in the CCG? Like if both #1s came in with a two game lead over the #2s in their conference; or a one game lead with a victory over the #2, then it would not matter if either #1 won or lost they would rematch in the CCG.
^^^^^^^ Travel planning issues for team and fans. What if some other BIG event is already scheduled at the home site. Inability to build a gameplan as the season progresses to accommodate an unknown opponent.... more critical for high ranked teams. Probably TV broadcast planning issues - last minute logistics.
Speedway: I think HornSwoggler makes some good constructive criticisms of the "unknown game" scenario. Beyond that, however, your proposal does not seem to make any provision for inter-divisional play at all. It's more like two different conferences where the best two teams will play at the end of the year, best I can tell. And that's the danger of two divisions in bigger leagues: They tend to be unwieldy, impersonal leagues. That's exactly why I prefer a pod system for 16-team leagues -- to promote better league cohesion. But everyone has his own opinion.
Yeah, you and HornSwoggler are right. Kind of defeats the purpose of having sixteen teams. Four pods is defintely the way to go. I was thinking the CCG was worth so much money to TV that extending that out a sort of playoff within the conference would be well received by TV, especially at the end of the season. Thanks for outlining the four pod system XOVER.
XOVER I may have missed it but how are CCG participants determined in the pod format? Record, ranking, combination, 4 team playoff? I am assuming a CCG will be included.
