I'm putting myself out there by even posting this. Some may make me out to be an idiot. But honestly I consider this to be, in the long term, the greatest threat to more than US security. Putin has deeply secured the seat of his power, and prevented others from taking it from him. He has, in effect, made himself the de facto leader of what is wdely considered the Russian "republic." I would wager without a doubt that we will see a consolidated Russian "republic" directly aligned aganst NATO within the next two years. Within five years we will see a Russian civil war the likes of which most could not have imagined. I tell you this not because I expected it. And I hope you will have the opportunity to mock me for it. (in Highschool I perhaps foolishly prophesied a Chinese uprising agains the US). But the USSR is not dead. Its suppresion of individual rights is definitely not dead, and its impearial tendencies are definitely alive and well. I expect the remains of the USSR to rise up against western ideals and attempt to present a foil to traditional western powers in a way that we have taken for granted. The Cold War is not over, nor is the USSR dead under Putin. Mock me as you wish. I hope I am wrong. I hope to look the fool in the coming years. But there is something seriously wrong in the Russian Republic. And if they choose to look for glory in their past, then we will be looking at a much more dangerous world. God help us.
There is no USSR. Those 15 republics are no longer aligned in the same way and some have conflicting interests. There will never be any direct conflict between Russia and the US. Maybe Russia will support an Armenian/Iranian/Syrian alliance vs. a US supported Saudi/UAE/Iraqi/Georgian alliance. At least that’s the way the current arms race looks.
Granted, I'm drunk right now, but given the Russian stance on Georgia, which Pres. Obama will have to deal with, Russian Imperalism seems alive and well. I'd love to be wrong on this, but I think the ambition of the former USSR is still quite active. I expect alot of turmoil to come out of Russia in the coming years, and I expect it to cause alot of problems. I know that the "USSR" doesn't exist anymore, but try to tell that to the fromer KGB agents who run Russia today.
I disagree and here are some of the reasons: 1. There is no longer an ideological conflict. 2. Russians want to make money and have a normal life. Neither will be helped by a return to the USSR. 3. Russia has major problems to deal with at home without creating more abroad. Immigration, a declining population, crushing poverty in the rural areas, and alcoholism are all serious problems that renewed imperialism will not solve. 4. Putin's consolidation of power is a return to normalcy and says more about internal Russian politics than anything else. 5. Russia is a one commodity economy. Their vulnerability in this regard is readily apparant with the current drop in the price of oil. They are also in their own financial crisis that goes back to the summer.
When you have to preface a statement with "I'm not an idiot" so often the odds are good that the statement itself is pretty damned stupid.
If Russia had a massive civil war, there would be 5 or 6 people left in the country considering their population decline.
We are in far greater danger from an internal threat than we are from an external one. Until we toss out the meatheads in D.C. and clean up Wall Street, we are more likely to see collapse from within.
What Woland said, with the exception that Russia's one commodity isn't restricted to oil, it's energy (largest natural gas producer). Russia's rising for sure but it's almost laughable to compare the current Russian state to the USSR even at its weakest post-WWII moment.
Nice, goverat, you finally got rid of that bear cavalry sig... Don't doubt that russia has ambitions. That would be very naive.
The thing to worry about with Russia is its dependents on oil for revenue. If the price of oil drops below about $45 a barrel, watch out for a "crisis" like the one we saw in Georgia. I expect the next one to occur in the Ukraine which has a pipeline to Europe. I'm sure Putin can concoct some need to send troops there to "protect" Russian interests.
The future Russian threat looked a lot more ominous this summer. Their government and especially Putin has had a bad few months. Like Napoleon's winter retreat from Moscow bad. Geogia - Saakashvili is still in power. Russia deeply embarrassed itself in the affair, especially in the eyes of European diplomats who might have looked upon the country favorably even a year ago. Replying to this post I found this story in today's London Times: Vladimir Putin 'wanted to hang Georgian President Saakashvili by //no sex at all//' Oil Prices and Energy: No one benefitted from high oil prices than Russia. They have high production and relatively small reserves making high energy prices perfect for them. The fall in commodity prices has really hurt their economy. There are now doubts about the huge Russia gas pipeline to Europe. General Economy: Russia's stock market has for all intents and purposes -- collapsed. It's down about 75% off its high. It is pretty much at the level it was when Yeltsin was in power, and the drop has occurred in the last few months. Putin and his Oligarch's stranglehold on the country has also made it hard for them to blame anyone else for the country's problems. They can try to blame the US and George Bush, but that only goes so far. On the other hand, there is simply no organized opposition in Russia. It's been completely stamped out. And to be a major world power they have to do it now. Long term demographics is very against Russia becoming : Russia has a very old population and a low birth rate. Its population has been declining for 20 years. In 1990 Russia had a population of 145 million, the US 245 million. By 2050, the US is estimated to be at 439 million and Russia could be at 110 million. That's a huge swing. Keep in mind as well that a good portion of Russian population growth is coming from their minority groups as well.
