Time to Pick the Season - Does History Repeat?

I’m going 11-1. Before you call the folks in the white jackets or check the water for orange Kool-Aid here in SoCal, let me explain why.

1977, coming off a 5-5-1 last DKR season, Akers had a phenomenal year, powered by his Heisman RB, Earl. After the 1st Quarter in Dallas, he operated the rest of the season with a 3rd string QB.

In 1998, coming off a last and losing Mackovic season, Mack Brown, powered by his Heisman RB Ricky, we went 9-3, and performed beyond all expectations.

We enter 2021, Sark’s first season, powered by a transcendent RB, Bijan Robinson. And, we are not coming off a losing season! In fact and as we all know, only 13 points accounted for our three losses in 2020. That included the overtime game at the Cotton Bowl.

I believe the returning talent is quite good, probably superior to anyone we will face in the season except — potentially — OU.

If Sark and his staff are what we hope they will be, this season will be beyond most expectations.

If you believe that history tends to repeat, this could indeed be an excellent year for the burnt orange. I believe that it will be.

 

That would be a great season! It would also help to wash away the dismal seasons under Charlie and Tom. Here's to hoping! HOOK 'EM!!

 

I agree we gonna be good. We are going to be tough to beat.
The question is will we lose to ISU? We will lose to OK. I am going to say that we will beat ISU. So we finish 11 - 1 and lose to Oklahoma again and then we beat somebody in a bowl 12 - 2 so this will be an awesome season. Then some big time recruits change their minds and sign with us.
I know that's high hopes but i'm going for it.

 

I believe we have some solid talent on both sides of the ball. But seems every time I read about practices, the focus it on the QB battle with only a brief mention of the other players.

 

1998 appears to be the most likely scenario. New QB too like Applewhite.

 

You used the words "awesome season" to describe a year where we lose to OU twice

 

I'm hoping that Chris & Castiglione tell Bobbie boy, "we are outa here in no small part because of your incompetence, so shove your CCG up your ***. Let Baylor play Kansas for your TV money"

 

Since many pick us to finish with 8 or 9 wins then finishing 12-2 would be an awesome season inspite of losing to OK twice. Its ok if you don't feel that way.

 

We’re not losing to OU, not even once.

 

I will say we lose 2 games. I don't know which 2 but we will lose 2 games. The whole season we go 11-2 or 12-2 if we go to the Big XII Championship game.

 

We lose to either OU or ISU, but not both.
Nearly every team loses one game they "shouldn't"; ours is against either OSU or TCU.
10-2 in the regular season, and by the end, we're playing like a top 10 team. We finish tied for 2nd in the Big 12, lose the tiebreaker, and miss the Big 12 Championship game. We easily defeat our 2nd tier bowl opponent.

In short, a little better than last year, and on a better trajectory.

 

I hope we play Georgia and this year give Bevo "less sedative" so he can scare that mutt half to death.

 

Looking at the schedule, I believe we win the first four games. Then we go to Ft Worth for TCU. I hope the guys play well and take down the Toads. We haven't had much luck against TCU only posting a 2-7 record against them in B12 play, IIRC. OU the next week, at this point, I lean toward OU. ISU is the only other team that can actually take us down since the game is up there. If all goes well, 11-1 is doable, if not we might end up 9-3, maybe 8-4 at the worst. We'll have a better feel for the season in 2 weeks.

 

Duke,
I like and agree with your comparison to Akers taking over early 1977 and what he put on the field that fall: 10 -0.

I posted elsewhere about this same comparison / parallel to 2021 season coming up.

I will be at the TCU game in FW, I think the Horns will win this game.

My mind says 10-2 maybe 11-1, if Sark and his incredible staff is / are what we are lead to believe they are. If there are a bunch of key injuries or were just not quite there yet... 9-3 is more likely.

I now think we shock and upset ou. Me thinks DC Kiwatowski finds a way to rock Spencer Rattler's world October 9th ! Horns get the upset win vs. ou SUCKS!

 

I agree, and really look forward to what coach K can scheme up. We’re used to getting blown out for the first 15 minutes and then crawling back. That has happened so many times in the last couple of decades. It may happen again October 9 but I have a feeling that it won’t. I think this defensive coordinator might just be the real deal and I can’t wait to see how he will handle the RRR challenge.

 

My friend sent an opinion that Texas' hiring of Sark was and "OU" move rather than a Texas move (Urban Meyer). I agree and have some comfort from this observation. We will beat OU this year, I feel it. God help us beat the Hogs.

 

Dave I totally agree with your Arkansas point. This is a one game season for them. It will take a monumental effort to win up there with a new QB, a new staff, and a jam packed stadium that will be rocking. I think that game will tell us everything we need to know about what we can expect about this team and this staff.

 

YDD
Arkansas will bring it. They did in 2005. They hate us.

I have tickets.

 

The level of kool aid makes me nervous..not for the season but for the safety and integrity of my phone Im holding here...
Really surprised at the level of optimism on this board. Thought I clicked texags for a moment.
I sure hope you all are right, but the majority of history does not support it. New coaches, new schemes, coming off a couple years of turmoil, tough schedule, unsettled qb position and lack of experience, lack of WR depth, linebacker questions, tons of pressure....
9-3 with a much better team as the season winds down and a nice bowl win...Card settled in as starter and some players finally rising up as real leaders at key positions. Poised for a real nice 2022-23 with QB and RB and a couple defenders rising as stars.
There will be growing pains this year and patience is warranted. Enjoy the ride...all of it.

 

New coach, QB, and system. Still think we go 9-3. Bowl win for 10-3 Next two years we kill it.

 

I see more parallels to 1998.

1997 - Got rid of a coach, who, while upgrading talent and winning, was an ******* who alienated most everybody. Same with 2020.

1998 - New coach who immediately won over the vast majority of the fans, BMDs, etc., instilling a sense of excitement. Same with 2021, except I'd say Mack did this better than Sark.

1998 - Team had an established RB, new QB, and was questionable on defense because of how poorly the previous team fared on that side of the ball. Similar to 2021, except I think the question marks on D are less pronounced than 1998.

I can see us losing 2 to 3 games but improving as the season progresses, such that by November and December everybody can see great progress and nobody wants to play us.

Big question in my mind is: will the momentum of 2021 translate for Sark into the type of recruiting victories in 2022 and beyond that propelled Mack's teams to elite status?

 

One could argue that Ricky Williams choosing to stay and play in 1998 — something that was very unusual then and unheard of today — launched Mack’s run at Texas. It may have also had the effect of solidifying DeLoss’ legacy. Recruiting exploded, licensing followed, and the rest is history.

The impact of that decision by Ricky cannot be overstated.

 

I hope to be pleasantly surprised by what a whole new staff with a fresh QB and quality returning players can accomplish. Every season holds unexpected revelations and lets hope this year they are positive ones.

 

How about this observation from what I hear in snippets from the local daily radio show.

The O-line is pretty good, but not deep. Any injuries and we might be in trouble.

Brand new starting QB with not one start on the roster. Sark's offensive scheme is all about timing which could lead to a lot of INT's until whoever takes over gets it down. If the O-line doesn't develop or maintain depth this could be a huge problem.

The receiver corps is the weakest unit on the team and no one has really stepped up as the leading receiver.

The only shining unit on offense is really running backs which is stacked and we've had some good tight end play.

If we can't get our passing game going then everyone will be lined up to stop the run. This could cause our offense to be pretty stagnant for a few weeks or possibly the entire season. If that scenario comes true we could be looking at a 7ish win season.

 

Yep. The pessimistic view is 7 wins. Unforeseen injuries, lack of development, and other horrible crap like that can take its toll. But it is the preseason, and that isn't the time to contemplate such horrors.

 

I've been burned so many times buying into the sunshine pumping I'm determined this year to think things through more. As a result I feel like I'm being more realistic not necessarily pessimistic.

 

Every 1st year coach has gone 1-2 since Akers. I think Vegas is 100% right on with the O/U at 8 wins. If we win 8 with this schedule and a freshman QB, I'll be impressed. I'm not worried about defense, but the offense is going to struggle and this schedule is the toughest that I can remember.

 

The only prediction I’m making; is that we will not like Sarkisian if he gets only 8 wins.

 

Not really taking issue w you Creek personally here...I get the sentiment and tone(a tad sarcasm/humor?)...but....
This^^^^^^
is part of the problem.
I could go on and on from why Saban didn't come here to why (some of at least) nobody likes us.
At least it is almost cute in a stupid little yappy mutt pup kind of way when aggy does it.
When we do it...its just annoying and makes us look bad.
If the fan base doesn't exercise patience, restraint, humility, and be more reasonable with Sark....we risk falling further down the ladder of respectability and as a major player as a destination program. Anyone not recognizing this as a real and imminent threat/risk is acting foolishly. The narrative has been set. We...and Sark and the team/program have to change it and this is one way we can help.
9-3 is the o/u set by the "marketplace" and it is reasonable under the circumstances. Means it may be 10-2, may be 8-4. I personally think 2 or 4 losses a push and if I had to say I'd give the lean to 4. I still say 3 .... 2 would indicate good/real nice success and 3 satisfactory/on par and still progress in my eyes...Of course a lot of this will depend on what the team and coach "looks" like and what the wins and losses look like.

 

11-1
Maybe 12-0