UK may vote to leave the European Union

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Mr. Deez, Jun 14, 2016.

  1. Monahorns

    Monahorns 1,000+ Posts

    Horn6721, if they just leave then the EU essentially blocks them from trading with the continent and Ireland. It could be a disaster economically.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Not really. WTO rules would have a base duty of 6.5%.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Nigel hates it. He doesn't think it goes far enough. If you want a good discussion on the deal, here's a debate between a pro-deal Tory MP, an anti-deal pro-hard Brexit MEP, and a Remainer and former Labour MP who wants a second referendum. It explains the issues with the deal pretty well.
     
  4. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Hammer is correct. It wouldn't block trade. It would put the UK under WTO trading rules. That would put UK businesses at a significant disadvantage in dealing with the EU, but it wouldn't completely shutdown trade with them.

    Of course, the UK would be in stronger position if it had a strong trade deal with the United States. It wouldn't match having deal with the EU, but it would certainly blunt the potential losses quite a bit.
     
  5. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Thanks
    I will watch the debate later.
    Wouldn't it hurt the other countries too if they cut off trade with the UK?
     
  6. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Yes. However, the assumption is that the UK would be the bigger loser, because the EU's size would allow it to easier deal with the lost trade. I think that's true, but I think it's overstated by some. This isn't a broke-*** poor country like Bulgaria leaving. It's the UK. They're a major player and have enough money to be a big consumer market. In fact, the EU has a trade surplus with the UK.

    The EU has to play hardball for obvious reasons. However, if the UK left under WTO rules, the EU would come to the bargaining table after the political storm died down. And again, it would help the UK a lot if it had a big trade deal with the US already in the bag. I don't know what the status of that is, but Trump's people should be working on it hard.
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2018
  7. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    A lot of UK industries are net importers. The EU would lose more than UK if tariffs are imposed. Of course it’s more diluted to the EU than for the UK. That’s the leverage that the EU is applying. Like Deez says, a US FTA would help dilute the impact to the UK such that EU loses most of its leverage
     
  8. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Sorry, I posted my comment before reading this bit. Looks like we are on same page. One more thing. Trump didn’t push a FTA when May decided on a Brexit lite strategy. At the time, Trump said he would do it differently. Looks like Trump was right again.
     
  9. Monahorns

    Monahorns 1,000+ Posts

    Really hope UK finds some one to lead them out.
     
  10. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    The May choice was odd. David Cameron stepped down because he claimed that his opposition to Brexit undermined his credibility in negotiating a deal. I think he did the right thing. But then they picked another Remainer as PM. Weird.
     
  11. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Corbyn threatening no confidence vote the the PM
     
  12. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    May responded by calling for Brexit Plan Vote the week of Jan 14

    To which Corbyn said -- "A responsible Prime Minister would have put a deal before parliament this week"
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2018
  13. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Looks like Corbyn put forward a motion of no-confidence in May anyway -- based on her choice not to hold the Brexit vote immediately.

    The wording is not on the government, but on May herself. As such it is a political reprimand not a vote to overturn the government.

    Last week, the no-confidence vote was a party vote from the Tories on their chosen leader.
     
  14. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  15. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Europeans living in different movies

    Top pic is crowds in support for Salvini in Rome
    Bottom is rioters burning the city against Macron in Paris.
    The media says Salvini is a "dangerous populist."
    The same media heralds Macron as the "saviour of Europe."

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Statalyzer

    Statalyzer 10,000+ Posts

    Exactly - the only reason to change that stuff if someone leaves the EU is this: to try and make it so that the cost of leaving is higher than the cost of staying. Which proves that they don't believe that staying provides enough benefits to be worth it.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  17. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
  18. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    The dynamic is somewhat similar to a labor union. You can leave, but they're going to make it hard for you to do it, because their power and their leverage in dealing with outsiders comes from speaking for a large, unified group. If that group fragments, their power and leverage are reduced.
     
  19. Monahorns

    Monahorns 1,000+ Posts

    You have to really fight to leave. You may even have to seem unreasonable at times or say harsh things.
     
  20. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    Well, you have to be willing to accept some negative consequences. As I've always said, Brexit is good, but there will be bad side to it. Some people do lose in the equation as they do with just about everything. If you're a business that relies heavily on exports to the EU, this might hurt you. If you're a UK citizen who works in an EU country or owns property there, this could hurry you. Most of Britain wins, but some lose.
     
  21. Monahorns

    Monahorns 1,000+ Posts

    Yes Deez. It's almost as you have to have some guiding principle to govern by. You have to be sensitive to the people but you also have to have some understanding of how the world works and make tough decisions. I would say, like an adult, but adults don't make tough decisions anymore.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  22. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 10,000+ Posts

    That's a huge problem in countries all over the world. Nobody wants to pay the price for a greater good. They are selfish and don't value things free peoples should cherish.

    The Remainers and the media are obsessed with the economic angle of Brexit - who will get hurt by it. They don't give a crap about what they stand to gain. In fact they roll other eyes at it. British people will have the power to make decisions for themselves again. Their elected leaders won't be under the thumb of an extremely arrogant band of unelected hacks. That's more important than money.
     
  23. Monahorns

    Monahorns 1,000+ Posts

    Ultimately leaving the EU will enrich the UK. They should all be for it.
     
  24. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 5,000+ Posts

    UK Parliament voted today on May's Brexit Deal. No confidence vote for May on Wednesday per CNN although I thought the last one made her immune from these votes for a year.

     

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