Who are you voting for in the Texas primary?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Duck Dodgers, Jan 21, 2022.

  1. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    For me:

    Governor - Abbott. He's been OK, not great, as governor, but it's an easy win with him as the candidate, compared to the other guys running in the GOP primary.

    LTG - Patrick. There are a bunch of no-names running against him, and while Patrick always seems slippery, and I wouldn't buy a used car from him, he delivers in the end. Since he's been LTG, we've gotten on 2A issues: open carry, campus carry, emergency carry, Constitutional Carry, blacklisting of anti-gun banks from doing business with Texas (a big win and one that doesn't get enough attention). He's the single most powerful elected official in the state of Texas - more powerful in reality than the governor, thanks to how the state constitution is set up (to deprive Union installed governors after the Civil War from running the state), and if he truly didn't want any of those to pass, they would not have.

    Patrick's MO seems to be: make it take it, like street basketball. If you make him work for gun rights by calling and emailing and showing up to the Legislature, he'll make it happen. If you vote for him, and then hold good thoughts about what you'd like to see done, he'll work on other issues, for voters who are wiling to put in the work. Maybe I have low standards, and am willing to put in the work, but that's good enough for me.

    AG - Paxton. Here's another slippery character, who's been under indictment now since 2015 (which seems foolish - either take him to trail or drop the case DOJ. He's been under indictment now for longer than WWII took to fight). But he delivers, and has had some good wins against both King Obama, and Depends Biden in court. He's running against Louis Gohmert, who's past his prime, Eva Guzman, who I wished has stayed on the Texas Supreme Court, and George Bush the 8th or whatever his number is. The Bush family are turds who quit if the going gets tough (his granddad quit in office in 1991 and gave us Clinton, his uncle quit in office in 2005 and gave us both Obama, and a 60 vote Democrat Senate). Never vote for a Bush. This family needs to get tossed in the trash where they belong.

    Agriculture Commission - I'm going with Rep. James White. He's not the incumbent (that's Sid Miller), but I was very impressed with Rep White when the Constitutional Carry bill was heard in his committee. He moved that bill along, and was very polite and professional during the public hearings, which went on to 6 am (!), as that committee had to spend all day on some Be Nice to Criminals proposed bill, with the associated hollering and screaming as you would expect.

    Land Commissioner - Dawn Buckingham. She did a very good job I'm told helping Constitutional Carry move along in the Senate, behind the scenes, and didn't make a big deal out of it. She's currently a State Senator, and a medical doctor. She'd be a good candidate for LTG or Governor after a 4 year stint in statewide office, and has been endorsed by all the GOP big wigs - Trump, Cruz, Patrick, and Perry.

    Your choices?
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2022
  2. mb227

    mb227 5,000+ Posts

    Y'all need to be paying attention to the down-ballot races. Lots of judicial races are being contested. Republican party is generally trying to find a candidate for each bench, but there will be jurisdictions where there is more than one for a court to choose from.

    If you take a few minutes as the primaries grow closer, information will be easy to find on most of them.

    This is a primary where I am locked into the Republican side since I signed a petition to get a co-worker onto the ballot (Matt Dexter, County Court 12 in Harris County). I believe he is unopposed in the primary but I think the current judge (Genesis Draper) has an opponent.

    In years past, I often would vote in the D primary to try and do my part to weed out some of the idiots on those down-ballot slots. Of course, in Travis County, for so many years, that was also the only way to have anything to vote for in a primary other than perhaps Precinct captain or something similar...

    I am seeing too many races where a perfectly acceptable conservative is being primaried by someone running on being more-pro-Trump than the incumbent. All that does is fracture the party.

    Up top, I believe we will see some run-offs, including for Governor. I don't know that Abbott gets 50%. Huffines is basically one-issue in his campaign, but it is an effective one-issue, specifically the border.

    At AG, Eva Guzman has some decent credentials and I believe will suitably draw some of the conservatives who are tired of the Paxton smarminess. Her other draw is that it gets a potential increase in Hispanic voters into the Republican primary. Although born in Illinois, she was raised in Texas and has been a Republican appointee to the Texas Supreme Court and then was re-elected. As a recall, her husband also had some good law enforcement credentials...to the extent people care about things like that.
     
  3. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    I'm voting Huffines in the primary. He is a real conservative and Mike McCarthy isn't getting done as the Cowboys coach.
     
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  4. Horn2RunAgain

    Horn2RunAgain 1,000+ Posts

    Abbott

    Guzman (my wife is related to Paxton...but I'm voting for Eva)

    Patrick

    Will research other positions before voting day
     
  5. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    A technique often used in engineering problems is to use what's called Risk Weighted Analysis. It's where, instead of deciding all at once what to do, you look at various aspects of the problem, assign probabilities to different scenarios, and then see what the overall risk weighted outcomes are.

    For Texas governor, the knock on Abbott seems to be that he did too much lockdown stuff in the early days of the Wuhan virus, and that various other candidates claim they would have done it differently. But you only have their promise, after the fact, that they would have resisted all the Wuhan panic and kept everything open and running at 100%.

    Being generous to them, it's a 50% - 50% chance they would. Lots of elected officials claim one thing, get into office, then act completely different.

    So, using this, electing someone besides Abbott gives you a 50% chance of them being better.

    But - there's also a general election to deal with. Abbott in the general election would have about a 90-95% chance of winning, against the most likely opponent of Beta Male. Abbots won the governors race twice before, last time by 13%. He can't at this point be typecast as a "meanie who hates!!!', which is the Democrat - Media's favorite line about Republicans. His wife is Hispanic so he gets good support from that group for a Republican.

    Now Beta Male failed in his last race for statewide office, in 2018. He had huge funding, was constantly pumped up by the media as a fresh young leader, and was running against a very conservative Cruz, who could be typecast as a meanie, and thus didn't get a lot of support from the afternoon wino book club crowd. And all this is a good year for Democrats nationwide. He still lost by 3%.

    Abbott vs. Beta Male in 22, with Slow Joe the drooling President having about a 30% approval rate, won't be close. Unless something unusual happens like some hitherto unknow scandal popping up about Abbott, expect another 60/40 blow out like in 14 against the Abortion Barbie Wendy Davis.

    But for West/Huffines/Prather, it's much less. Again, call it 50/50. 2022 will be a good year for the GOP, but any of those candidates are going to have a much harder race than Abbott would. Plenty of opportunity for unknown scandals, real or media created, to pop up. And, it wouldn't be surprising for the establishment wing of the GOP to do their usual thing when their candidate doesn't win the primary, and take their ball and go home crying, and not support the GOP nominee.

    So, you have a 50% chance that West/Huffines/Prather wins the general election, and then a 50% chance that they would do better than Abbott. That's a 25% chance overall.

    And, you now have a 50% chance that instead of them, or the decent but not great Abbott is governor, you have Beta Male as governor, and the endless celebratory stories of "Texas turns Blue!!!". If that communist was governor now, you'd still have the state as locked down as he could possibly have it.

    Here's what a vote for West/Huffines/Prather means:

    25% chance you'll have a more conservative governor that Abbott
    25% chance you'll have the same type of governor as Abbott
    50% chance you'll have a communist swine as governor. And don't count on the Texas Legislature as a backstop - in the event of a Beta Male win as governor, the momentum of him winning could bring in more Democrats into the Legislature. The Texas Senate is 18-13 R, so a swap of 3 seats, and it's a Democrat run Senate.

    Any of West/Huffines/Prather are going to have a hard race in the general election - and if you vote for them in the primary, are you going to do your part to help them in the general? Donate to their campaigns, make phone calls, knock on doors, hold signs at intersections - the hard work of getting someone elected, not marking a ballot and then doing nothing else. Going with West/Huffines/Prather is a bold move for the general election, and if you are not prepared to put in the work to keep Beta Male out of the office, then don't vote for them.

    Abbott doesn't do much for me, and I certainly would not vote for him in a presidential primary. If Milk Carton Cornyn finally disappears in 2026 and doesn't run for re-election, I'd look for about any other viable candidate for that seat. But he's been an OK governor, and is such a slam dunk for the governor's race in 22 I'm voting for him, hoping he doesn't have a runoff to deal with, and will enjoy the easy win against Beta Male, while I donate and volunteer for other races.
     
  6. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I think most of what you said is true, but I think don't these guys are equal. I do agree that establishment Republicans would certainly be tepid about West and especially Prather. I'll always respect his military service, but West is a carpetbagging, opportunistic assclown. There's just no getting around that. Prather is an internet entertainer. He's good at it and he's a nice guy, but that's the extent of his relevance. Neither of those guys are going to get much traction beyond the base, which will be loyal to the GOP this election.

    Like the other two, Don Huffines wouldn't be able to hold the "afternoon wino book club crowd" because he's "mean." That is true. (Abbott actually isn't that nice or cheery either, but the wheelchair sorta nullfies that problem for him. They just can't hate a guy in a wheelchair.) However, unlike the others and like Abbott, he would be able to hold the downtown business crowd (meaning the husbands of the afternoon wino book club crowd), because he's part of it. He's very much of a business insider and had their support when he was a state senator. (He'd still be a state senator had he not been up for reelection in '18.)

    Huffines isn't my choice, but he's more electable than West or Prather would be.
     
  7. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Huffhines it is then. :smile1::e-hookem:
     
  8. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Meh. He's still a throbbing tool.
     
  9. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    And Abbott isn't? Abbott is middle of the road at best.
     
  10. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Abbott's a throbbing tool too. My support for him is tepid at best. It's like being asked if you'd rather have McDonald's or Burger King for dinner.
     
  11. bystander

    bystander 10,000+ Posts

    Beto makes Abbott look good but Abbott has this "We're Texas" attitude that is way too much on the fringe for my tastes.

    Is Huffines the yahoo who in his political commercials say's the Cowboys are going to win?
     
  12. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Deez, I follow Texas Scorecard from a recommendation you made months ago. They are the same as True Texas. Their coverage has been very eye opening about just how bad of a leader Abbott has been. He supports the most liberal Republicans, won't support the most conservative initiatives in the Texas leg, and doesn't execute on things he says he will do.

    Maybe Huffhines isn't great either. That wouldn't be surprising, but he is pushing for things that Texas Republican voters agree with. Someone else needs a chance prove themselves.
     
  13. mb227

    mb227 5,000+ Posts

    The thing that I can see turning some voters off about Huffines is the interview that he gave last night where he wants biblical studies in junior high. If a parent wants their child to receive 'biblical studies,' there are any number of private schools which will address that. However, it has no place as a block of instruction in public schools because that is a court battle in which the State would not prevail.
     
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  14. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    Can't agree with that. Abbott signed off on all pro-gun bills, including Constitutional Carry. He sighed the private party lawsuit bill for Abortions after a fetal heartbeat. He signed the Roe v Wade trigger bill that outlaws almost all abortions in the state if R v W is overturned. He called the Leg back several times to pass anti-voter fraud bills.

    Now I think there was some tranny bills that didn't make it through - didn't follow those so I can't directly comment. But the idea that he hasn't supported conservative bills this past session isn't the case.
     
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  15. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I'm pretty sure Texas Scorecard is a MQS publication. I wouldn't recommend something from him.
     
  16. huisache

    huisache 2,500+ Posts

    I will be greatly disappointed if Gohmert is not the AG candidate. It would be in keeping with the tradition of electing the most buffoonish person available. Also for Huffines for that reason

    and in 2024 who will be the knuckledragger to knock off that Rino Rafael Ted Cruz?
     
  17. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    A counter to that is that classical Western civilization was built on a biblical worldview and philosophy. It doesn't have to be for religious instruction. It can be for history, literature, sociology stuff. The only way out of the Leftish barrage is to rediscover our Christian roots, whether or not you want to believe in Jesus.
     
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  18. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    He did some good things. But much of what you list he didn't really do what he promised or supported clunky options that were pretty moderate when you looked at them.
     
  19. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    You suggested True Texas to me. It was in a discussion about school board elections. I said there was no way to know what the candidates were for. You said to check True Texas, which I did. They didn't have a social media presence, but I followed their links to Texas Scorecard.

    Guess who True Texas supports for the Governor primary? "Anyone but Abbott" with Huffhines on the top.

    Sounds like you are drifting left with all that time in godless Europe.
     
  20. Garmel

    Garmel 5,000+ Posts

    There are many good reasons why I call him a RINO. lol
     
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  21. 2003TexasGrad

    2003TexasGrad OSU Game Prediction Champion

    Alan West and anyone else with an R by their name.
     
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  22. bystander

    bystander 10,000+ Posts

    Abbott unless we have a total Grid failure; then I'll have to think about it. No way Beto can be the Governor. It's unacceptable to me and I don't know if anyone other than Abbott can do it.
     
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  23. mb227

    mb227 5,000+ Posts

    I saw Abbott had a major presser at DPS today on the border situation...AG's from more than a dozen States were also there.

    Included in the information is that Texas will apparently no longer be getting daily updates on border apprehensions and releases from the feds, and that this started last night. I am guessing the Fox coverage yesterday of the bus trips to the parking garage of adult males, after which they were released with tickets to interior States, pissed off the Ron Klain and Susan Rice administration...

    It is easy to see why Border Patrol staff turned their back on Mayorkas yesterday.
     
  24. 2003TexasGrad

    2003TexasGrad OSU Game Prediction Champion

    Biden needs to be impeached for this alone after the midterms.
     
  25. huisache

    huisache 2,500+ Posts

    We need to impeach Biden and elect Huffines and get the twofer——-Kamala as president and the Cowboys in the Super Bowl!!!!

    that’s the ticket, by gum!!!!
     
  26. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I can't fully deny I said that because i can't remember everything I've ever posted. However, I did a search for posts by me with "True Texas" and found nothing other than my post from yesterday. Are you sure you're not confusing me with someone else? I will acknowledge that school board elections is probably where I'm most sympathetic to MQS, but I honestly don't remember this at all. Am I searching wrong?

    Screenshot_20220128-082307.png

    Lol. People called me a RINO (because I did the Work of the Lord) long before I moved to be Europe.
     
  27. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    I don't know if you are searching wrong. I have never tried on this site. I will try myself. You don't remember our conversation? It was similar to others we have had but this time about public schools being broken. You responded by saying something like we get the school boards we want because we vote on it. I said that there is no way to know what the candidates are for or against, and you gave me the recommendation.

    Or maybe someone else gave me the recommendation within our conversation. It was on another thread though. Let me try to search.
     
  28. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    I found your recommendation. My memory was off. It was from this page: supreme court decisions of late

    I looked up Empower Texas and it doesn't exist anymore, so I looked for another Texas voting advocacy group and found True Texas and Texas Scorecard. Plus the group wasn't Empower Texas it was Empower Texans. It just so happens I found this on Wikipedia about the group.

    So you basically told me about Texas Scorecard when you suggested Empower Texans.
     
  29. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Yeah, I'm not surprised. They've changed their name before, set up front groups, etc., and some of that gets hard to follow, especially after being out of the "business" for several years.

    I looked at this in context. I wasn't endorsing the group or its candidates. I was citing them as a resource you could use to find candidates for school board who were not beholden to the school lobby (especially in terms of property taxes) and spending, because you were lamenting the absence of such candidates and organizations that will tell you real information about the candidates.

    As I mentioned, I'm more sympathetic to MQS on school board elections than on other elections, but I'm generally not a fan of his. It's not even really his policy agenda. I probably agree with him 90 percent of the time and echo most of his criticisms of the system. However, his tactics are often counterproductive, and he makes a lot of enemies needlessly. You'd like him though. He's a take-no-prisoners guy who doesn't care what the score is, if you want candidates who would represent you, I'd probably stand by the recommendation.
     
  30. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Hey even I can see what you are talking about. He is always pushing. Even if something positive happens he is challenging those involved about why they didn't get everything.

    I think there is room for personalities like him even when he steps in it. There need to be pushers and there need to be realists. There need to be multiple voices on the "right" side of an issue. Sometimes it is better to take your half win and be happy. Sometimes it is time to push push push.

    This what the Left has been doing for 100 years. Push. Push. Push. If the Right doesn't want to follow suit they will lose. We have been losing for at least 120 years. If you are going to reverse that we need a few more MQSs to energize the fight.

    That is why I like Huffhines. He is pushing to end property taxes. I don't know if that is absolutely the best thing. But let's open up the Overton Window all the way. Let's take a fresh look at where we are without false constraints. If you push for no property taxes and you get a 10% reduction and that much in government spending cuts, that's a win. It is also the basis to push for the next 10% reduction.
     
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