Zogby's Electoral has Obama leading 260 to McCain's 172, with 105 toss ups. of the tossups,McCain leads solely in New Hampshire with it's 4 electoral votesfor what it's worth. The Link
None of the purple states on that map have been updated since last week, and many are still from July. It will be interesting to see what that looks like with numbers post Palin selection and DNC convention.
Yeah I knew some of the figures were old, and Zogby is usually pretty good along with rassmuesen. All in flucx until after the GOp convention which to me will again give a baseline wothy of evaluation. Plus I think the survey listed was of adults rather than likley or registered voters. Look at next weekends poll for a better baseline.
Once it is updated with Palin's bait shack customers and the Yukima Eskimo faction she is going to pull......LOOK OUT!!! Genius pick -Geraldine Ferraro.
I'd expect BHO to take NV, CO, the tossups in the Midwest and at least one of SC, NC and VA if not two. McCain carries the West and probably VA.
Zogby had Obama winning California, New Jersey, and Massachusets in the primaries. By a lot. And he lost by a lot. He also had Kerry winning 2004 in a landslide - including winning Virginia - which he lost by a lot. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in Zogby right now.
to be honest Zogby was pretty good in 2004 and that was what I was basing my opinion on. So he could be off his game to be certain, as the only pollster having McCain up.
Polls are sooooooo easy to manipulate. Here's an example. The question Zogby asked was "Does the selection of Sarah Palin help or hurt John McCain's chances of winning the presidential election in November?" It didn't ask if the person they were talking to was going to vote for McCain. This questions asked people how they thought OTHERS would react. What this poll DOES indicate is that more than half of Americans think OTHER Americans will like the pick. I would have probably answered the same way. A subtle but important difference, I think.
