LOL zogby basically crucified all the other polls a week ago saying they where wrong that it was tightening.
Both campaigns don't care what the national polls say after the conventions. The state polls are the be all and end all.
A team in my kid's soccer league also closed the gap this weekend. We beat them 7-0 last weekend and they lost 7-1 this weekend. The fact they "tightened" up the score cannot be disputed. The gap has indeed narrowed!
Individual state polls are all that matter right now. That said, 100,000 people showed up for Obama today in Denver.
National polls have it's uses. But whether Zogby, who uses a more traditional model, which I think overstates republican turnout this year, is correct remains to be seen.
Austintx is right. The state polls are what are really important. The RCP avgs have Obama ahead in too many states.
I still think Obama has an enthusiasm from his voters unlike anything ever seen. It's very hard to measure that with polls. 100,000 people showed up in Denver? Just last weekend, 100,000 showed up in BOTH St. Louis and Kansas City on the same day. Besides, McCain has always had electoral problems and they're getting worse by the day.
I can see many races tightening. The last 10% are making their decisions. I can see many people, especially conservatives unsure about McCain/Palin but they're unable to make the choice of Obama. Obama has probably pulled as many undecideds as he can. However, unless McCain can convince those already decided on Obama to switch, its looking very unlikely that he can win. And with a fraction of the money that Obama has, McCain will have a hard time getting his message out to the voters. But anything can happen. McCain needs another Joe the Plumber moment that puts Obama on the ropes for a short period before people realize the issue is a paper tiger. And in 9 days, Obama might have trouble getting past that like he did with ol' Joe.
John McCain is a very well known commodity. I fail to see how a majority of undecideds would choose the best known commodity at the last minute when they didn't choose the best known commodity before? Would they ahve been waiting for new information? Hoping for a new repackaging to make the product more appealing?
I keep hearing reports of the race tightening, then I look at the actual numbers and see nothing of the sort. Maybe a little statistical variation but that is all. If the polls are even close to correct this is going to be a blowout. The Reps are going to need to take a long hard look at a lot of things, including their nomination process.
For those of you talking about the race tightening and how anything can happen, I have two words: Land. Slide. It's not going to be close - the only race that is currently tightening is the one in Arizona, and it's tightening away from McCain. State Polls Obama will win Virginia. He may very well take North Carolina, too. It will be over before the west coast finishes voting. You can comfort yourself by talking about him being ousted after four years, but I see a lot more similarities (in the way the country "feels") between Obama to Reagan than I do Obama to Carter.
Well, according to Limbaugh the fact that early voting in California is split 50/50 between Dems and Reps means that it's close, close, close!!!
