not surprising. People are buying into Obama's fear mongering about the economy. Leadership is saying, "Relax people, it'll work out. There are serious issues, but fundamentally things are sound. Here's the plan." Crappy leadership is saying, "Panic, people. It's all a huge stinking mess,the ship is sinking. Here's my plan for rescuing you from your horrible plight."
In 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 34 electoral votes (286-252). Seems like all Obama has to do is hold on to the states that Kerry got, and pick off 2 or 3 more. He would need to swing 17 electoral votes from red to blue. It looks like he has a decent lead in Iowa already (7 electorals), so if he could get Virginia(13) or Colorado(9) & NM(5) or Colorado(9) & Nevada(5) that would do it. Those states all look very close. He really needs to hold on to Michigan and Penn, where he looks to have verys slim leads. Should be another nail biter.
Out of curiosity, do polls generally exclude people who solely use cell phones and have no land lines? I had heard that to be the case.
and, of course, if Obama holds the Kerry states and alone flips either Florida or Ohio, it's goodnight Irene This time around, Ohio has a Democratic Governor and Sec of State whereas the botched Ohio elections that hurt Dems in '04 occurred with Repub Gov. and Sec of State. That makes me feel a lot better about Ohio. Florida looks good as well for Obama. Only 3k turning out for Mccain in Jacksonville Monday in a 16k arena tells me the McCainia thing isn't really taking off there. .
Likely voters is indeed very much the most important qualification IMHO. However, the Palin effect is fading extremely fast and we are heading back to John Mccain's forced grin, and running away from the Republican leadership the last 8 years he was an intergral part of. being part the head of the Commerce Committee is going to be an albatross yake placed around mccain's neck in the coming days. Palin- as I said initially would probably fade unless she could come out competently and keep the momentum going. She is nothign more than a stump speech that can't answer a question that isn't an underhand pitch at this juncture. The country isn't out of the woods yet, and sadly you can almost begin to feel the hopes for a terrorist attack building within the rank and file GOP. Palin is boxed in and can't actually answer questions because trooper gate will come up and she will have to act like a perp with no coment. McCain can't get away from his "the economy is strong" comments over months and months. Sadly the GOP concepts of "trust business" they will do what's right is coming home to roost. I sort of trust business, but realize greed is the primary motivation of many business people with ethics a DISTANT second. If the Florida figures are remotely accurate when the likely voters then McCain is in very deep ****. Mainly as he will have to spend more and more in states he had hoped to lock up early.
If I were Obama the only words out of my mouth the next 7 weeks would be about the economy. He doesn't need to waste anymore time talking about Sara Plain.
this is interesting. Indiana now in play? Star/WTHR poll in Indiana: Obama has the edge on McCain, 47% to 44% The Link .
After hearing Palin answer a question about her specific skills in a town hall meeting last night I understand why they are not allowing her to speak out side of a very controlled environment- Here was the question paraphrased- The palin effect is dead if she keeps this sort of "answering" much longer. Here is a quesiton from the town hall meeting last night with McCain- Governor Palin there have been questions about your foriegn policy experience, please respond to that criticism and give us specific skills that you think you have to bring to the White House to rebut that or mitigate that concern." Palin's response verbatim- "But as for foreign policy you know I think I am prepared and I know that on Jan. 20 if we are so blessed as to be sworn into office as your president and vice-president, certainly we'll be ready. I'll be ready. I have that confidence. I have that readiness and if you want specifics with specific policy or countries go ahead. You can ask you can play stump the candidate if you want to. But we are ready to serve." VERY SPECIFIC in describing that skill set Sarah. Reminded me sadly of many of the answers you get from contestants at beauty contests...
Palin's bubble continues to lose air as reality takes hold. After crashing the scene a liitle over 2 weeks ago to much fantasy and fanfare, the last week has shown a dramatic reversal in her approval with a 21 point negative swing. She now has a net negative approval rating per Research 2000: Approve/ Disapprove/ No Opinion 9/11: 52 35 13 +17 9/12: 51 37 12 +14 9/13: 49 40 11 +9 9/14: 47 42 11 +5 9/15: 47 43 10 +4 9/16: 45 44 11 +1 9/17: 44 45 11 -1 9/18: 42 46 11 -4 .
You can get excited you if you want about Florida, NC & Indiana, but Obama is not going to win any of them. Obama has a real chance to win Ohio and or Virginia. If either of those turn then McCain is pretty much done. Dems always get excited about Florida but it goes Red and it will this time. Lets also remember we have the debates yet.
Electoral votes are still a dead heat with an increasing number of tight states. This election could go either way. It's going to come down to the debates because everything else will be noise.
Obama has a great chance to win Florida...and Ohio...and Virginia. On Monday, without Palin, McCain only drew 3k in Florida's largest city. McCain is generating very little excitement. The debates? see above. People have been filing out of the town halls this week after Plain finishes and McCain steps in. And Palin, who McCain calls perhaps the most knowledgable person on Energy in the country? Can't bear to hear her bungle more real questions like this at the debate: