Mus1,
I listened to all of both of the videos your referenced, and wanted to tie them to your comments and emphasize the importance of your title for this thread. My own perspectives & conclusions are the following:
(1) Germany is not only the key to the aftermath of the disintegration of the EU economic "strengths" but also will be a growing US solution for what is happening as it relates to Cohen's description of the growing friction between Russia and the USA. It is not a matter of if but when will the economic ties of the EU splinter apart. What is happening in Greece now will be a determining domino of how soon that will come to pass. With the German backing, the euro will remain a strong fiat, but Germany will lose a large share of its exports into the EU (which amounts to about 25% of its GDP) as these debtor nations like Greece continue to threaten the equivalency of bankruptcy and adopt other fiat forms. It is not a coincidence that Merkel is playing a key role in the discussions of what is happening with the Greek debt as well as what is the future outcome of Ukraine.
(2) Not really disputing Cohen's facts, I am not as concerned about a future possible hot/cold war between US and Russia. I believe that Cohen is overemphasizing the importance of the dispute between BO and Putin. Irregardless of what the sanctions did on Iran, they have had almost no affect upon Putin. The weakness of the Russian currency now is caused by the drop in oil prices, not by anything that BO decided to do. What is missing in Cohen's discussion is my belief that Germany will fill the vacuum caused by Obama's passivity in eastern Europe. You can tell by all the Russian soldiers and armor near the Ukrainian border how much "fear" Putin has about the discussion of putting US soldiers in eastern Europe. A US general pinning a medal on a Ukrainian soldier is a ridiculous symbol and indicative of what is going on. Real discussions are going on now about German soldiers being the ones to defend eastern European countries. It is their security that is at risk with Russia in Putin's border expansions into Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine. If they have to, Germany will be the one to take the lead in the NATO defense of Europe. The major tension in eastern Europe will be between Germany and Russia, not with Russia and USA. What will happen eventually in Ukraine is mainly between Germany & Russia. Look at the leadership that Merkel is taking as opposed to Obama. Obama is purposefully taking a backseat to the interests of Europe.
(3) I see your points with the expansionary nature of Putin's actions and do not necessarily disagree with your facts. However, my viewpoint is that Putin's actions are more defensive in nature and not offensive. I agree with Friedman's point of view that Russia is mainly trying to create a neutral buffer zone at the edge of the Russian border - particularly as it relates toward Europe. They have a severe problem in the devaluation of the Russian ruble right now. It is becoming more common to negotiate international oil prices outside of the the US dollar more recently. Because of the enormous US debt, countries are trying to protect themselves against possible future devaluation of the US dollar. The strength of the US dollar right now is not indicative of a strong US economy but the fact that many major countries are having problems with their economic growth.
(4) There are at least three characteristics of the German people in which I tend to have a strong trust. (a) The first is their ingenuity, particularly in the development of technology. They have funded of the order of 25% of the development of the
MEADS missile defense system along with the US's portion of slightly more than 50%. It will be the German
TLVS weaponry that will defend eastern Europe against incoming Russian missiles. (b) The second is their industrial might. Half of their total GDP is exported. That is a phenomenal number. There are reasons why their unemployment rate is 5% while a number of other European countries have an unemployment rate greater than 20%. There are some who rank Germany as the second world power behind the US in its ability to affect global politics and regional security. (3) The German people are very nationalistic in their nature. You only have to remember what happened in the first half of the 20th century. They also inherently believe in the value of their national government to fund and influencie their major economic endeavors. They do not have the qualms that we do about the inefficiency of combining government policies and business growth.
THEREFORE, in alignment with your thread title, Germany (without a doubt) is the key for determining not only what happens in a major portion of the European environment, but also who replaces the lack of current US leadership in that region.
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