Concur with Hammer. Trump has some disadvantages going into this primary that he didn't have last time. For starters, he has a record that has vulnerabilities. Specifically, though the media made Trump out to be a Covid renegade, he largely deferred to Fauci. Desantis went his own way on Covid and erred on the side of freedom rather than authoritarianism. He looks MUCH better on the issue today, especially among Republican primary voters. Though Trump ran his mouth a lot about the Woke, he did little to fight it tangibly. Desantis actually pushed an anti-Woke policy agenda and got most of it passed into law.
Second, Trump has taken some positions recently that will put him at odds with a lot of primary voters. When Desantis tried to take away Disney's special privileges after they endorsed teachers talking about genitals and turning boys into girls with 5-8 year olds, Trump sided with Disney. Trump also criticized pro-life legislation. Whether you agree with him or not on some of the nuances, it's not a good look in the primary.
Third, Trump's act is getting worn out, and he's not executing it well. If you look at what he has done recently in response to Desantis, it looks juvenile. Of course, he has always said juvenile things, but in the past, there was truth to his jabs and they didn't seem like diversions from criticism. Jeb Bush really was low energy. Marco Rubio did seem "little." But giggling and calling Desantis "Meatball Ron" or "Ron Desanctimonious" or suggesting that Casey Desantis faked her cancer diagnosis in response to him pointing out Trumps Covid record will look weak.
Finally, Trump is frankly becoming "low energy" himself. He doesn't seem to be the energetic tough guy he seemed to be last time. He seems tired and worn out. If Desantis is serious about this race, he can outwork him.
It'll take time, but Desantis can pull this out if he doesn't screw up.
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Last edited: May 28, 2023