Rest of season

Sam's injury will hamper the offense and Herman will go with him as long as he can drag himself onto the field.
Joseph O's injury will have huge affect on the defense.
OSU - Loss - Too much fire power, its on the road, refs usually cheat for them. 90% chance we lose
WVU - WIN - Tech beat them, so we might win this one. 68% chance we win
KU - WIN - They are not very good. Should be a win even on the road. 85% chance we win
ISU - Loss - Purdy is pretty good and they have weapons and play good defense too. 75% chance we lose
KSU - Loss - These mofos are good....100% chance of getting our butt kicked

5-5 season ...... How much money does the BMD want to shell out ?
I reserve my right to change my picks if we pull one out of our *** against OSU, and win that one !!!!
Other opinions or predictions ???

 

Both kept playing, I thought they were ok. We lost two games that could have very reasonably been wins. I think 8-2 and 5-5 are equally likely outcomes with this team.

 

The Tech game could have been a loss and the TCU game SHOULD have been a win if Ingram doesn't fumble. The OU game could have been a win, but at the same time OU did kinda let us back in it after dominating us a bit. I agree that with a win over OSU we could actually pull off a possible 8-2 season ( Why I mentioned reserving my right to change my picks if we pull that one out ). LOL

 

Best case 6-4, if this team stays healthy....

 

TH has used Sam like fullback since the first time he stepped on the field. If he stays semi healthy for the rest of the season it will be a miracle.

 

Yeah, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that this team is a hair’s breadth (well, 2 hairs’ breadths) away from being in MNC contention. There is a lot to be disappointed in, and plenty of reason for pessimism, but also some reason for optimism.

 

With never knowing which Texas team comes to play, I’ll say 6-4 on the season record.
On a different note, just think how we, along with Al Bundy, feel years after playing high school football. I’m afraid Sam will be old way before his time. That young man has taken a beating with more to come.

 

If Ingram doesn't fumble (TCU), and Herman goes for 2 (OU), Texas is ranked in the Top 5 in the nation. Very strange.

 

Hard to see this team going better than 2-3 or finishing better than 5-5 overall. They can pick up wins over KU and WVU (though nothing is a given) and I expect losses and maybe ugly losses to Okie State, ISU and KSU. If they can somehow win one of the three expected losses they get to winning season but 6-4 was not where they should have ended up and will mark a truly disappointing season.

 

It is hard to opine on the rest of the season. This team has the talent to win them all. Other than Kansas, this team could lose them all, They have the talent to blow teams out, but don’t. They seem to play to the level of the opponent and then it is a fourth quarter crap shoot.

 

Herman's been here now for 3.5 years, and what, 40 games? There's a definite pattern for his teams, that makes predictions pretty easy, on a risk weighted basis.

He beats the hired chumps: SJS, Tulane, Rice, La Tech, UTEP - 5-0

and the terrible teams in conference: 6-0 against KU and KSU (who is a lot better this year).

He wins the bowl games: 3-0

He's not good out of conference for regular season games: 1-4 (two loses to Maryland, loss to LSU, split with USC).

For the mid-range teams in the league, he usually beats them, but has one loss to each of Baylor, TT, ISU, and W Va. So 2-1 going into this year, now 3-1 against those teams he's played so far (TT and Baylor). Still, with 4 teams in this group, that's one loss per year on average.

Then Herman's biggest issue - his inability to be anything more than an irritant for TCU / OU / OSU. 1-3 against TCU, 1-4 (!) against OU, 1-2 against OSU. Combined 3 wins in 12 games (!!) against these three teams.

As I mentioned on another post, lots of coaches, often really good ones, have long stretches of failure against other teams - Fulmer / Florida, Mack / FSU then OU, Bowden / Miami, Harbough / OSU.

The issue with Herman is that it's not just one team he can't beat more than occasionally, it's three of them. So that works out to 2-3 losses a year, and combined with the 1 loss from the mid-range teams, you're looking at 3-4 losses in the regular season. Plenty good for the ISU and W VA of the world, I'm not sure that's enough for being at Texas.

Using past winning percentages as a guide, it's 33% win OSU, 67% each for ISU, W VA, and 100% for KU and KSU. The KSU one is too high, as KSU is decent this year. I'd put that much lower.

So, using just history - 33, 67, 67, 100, 100, for 3.67 wins.

More likely - 33 for OSU, 50 for ISU and KSU, 67 for W VA, 100 for KU. So three wins.

6-4 most likely - on a per game basis, I'd guess loss to OSU and loss to either ISU or KSU. Win the rest.

4 losses won't be good enough for the B12 game, Not sure what bowl that would translate to - maybe 1 less in stature than the Alamo bowl - I think that's the Copper bowl, but not sure.

This would be a very poor result for year 4 of Herman's tenure, with a senior QB, and a down year for OU.

 

I can't say I agree with that. Texas rarely blows teams out anymore. The only one last year in conference was TT. Year before that was only a few wins by more than 10 points. Texas isn't Clemson or Bama or Ohio State, regardless of our thinking that we have some much "talent".

Either the talent isn't that great, or more likely, it's all based on questionable gold star rankings by various recruiting services, with an incentive to up the rankings of players going to teams who's fans buy lots of subscriptions.

Plus "talent" is a snap shot in time, at a high school level, playing against other HS players. I think of it more as ore than needs to be refined to be at a high level, otherwise it rusts and corrodes away.

 

LSU was the best game we played last year. If we had played like that against everybody, we'd have gone 10-2 or even 11-1.

 

Thats one way to look at it, but could also say.......If we don't get the on-side kick vs TT we have one win over UTEP and probably lose to Baylor after the fork was inserted in Dallas.... It is what it is....There is also........ What could have been if Herman had kept focus on FOOTBALL !!!! As they say," If IFs and BUTs were candy and nuts we would all have a Merry Christmas..."

 

Texas is more lucky to be 1-2 in the first 3 B12 games than otherwise.

Against TT, they needed an on-sides kick. My general remembrance of success percentages for those is what 25%?

Even if the RB doesn't fumble, Texas still needs to score. Then hold TCU out of the end zone, requiring, err, the Texas defense, err, to make a stop. Not a good place to be. The Texas defense couldn't stop TCU from getting a first down and running out the clock.

Closer to a win against OU - Herman really should have got for 2 in the second OT, when Texas got the ball last, and a 2 point score would have won the game. They still needed to make it, but probably 60-40 or better. OU's defense, unlike Texas', wasn't completely worthless in the OT, as they stopped Texas on downs in OT3, blocked a FG, then stopped them on downs in OT4.

 

Look at Herman's record at UH...
Lost to freaking 6-7 U Conn in a 13-1 season...U Conn !!!!!!! WTH ???
Then went 9-3 losing to 9-5 Navy, 5-7 SMU, and 8-5 Memphis.
Now at Texas he loses 4 or 5 games a year.
He is NOT an elite coach, and may not even be a good coach for this level.
There are probably 50-100+ coaches in Texas high school football better than Herman. I bet there are 2000-3000 who care more about The University of Texas' traditions. All of them would take $2-3 million less to coach the Longhorns.

 

Look lots of teams lose to some chump during the year, it often happens.

He's a decent coach - as I said before if he was 8-4 at ISU or even OSU, people would be calling him an up and coming coach.

Problem is, he's winning that many games at Texas which 1. Wants more than 8-4 seasons and trips to San Antonio or Houston for a bowl game 2. Thinks that with the history, facilities, and funding at Texas that he should be doing better.

Can say I disagree with either. But lots, lots of coaches would be doing a far worse job - just look at Charlie Strong for that proof. There's nothing magical about Texas that makes other teams wilt and lose just from the name. Texas still has to play ball and all the other things that go into it. Lots of coaches are fully capable of multiple losing seasons in a row.

 

Expected onside kicks are more like 10-15%

 

That is low. So no, I don't agree with the "We could be 5-0". Lucky to be 3-2.

 

Last several years in football we on-side kicked every time. Got it quite often as we had a heck of a kicker and used a variety of kicks. If we didn't get it we still had about 60 yards or more to defend our goal. Besides before the 25 yard line rule often times the kick would get returned to the 30 or 40 anyway, so why not take a chance to keep their offense away from the ball....Plus it takes away the chance of a return for a touchdown too. If we weren't worried about their offense we high pooch kicked to their 30 to force a fair catch. if they muffed it, we could get that one too. One game we on-side kicked 6 times and got it 5......Won 36 -0. LMAO

 

Pretty much what I believe, with a swing game moving us to 6-4.

Herman cannot survive, and he better not. If — as one source has reported — his buyout drops from 25 mil to 15 mil on December 1st, I hope we fire him on Dec 5, after the KSU game.

I would either promote Yurcich to interim HC and give him a year or, if they can lure Meyer, see if Meyer wants to keep Yurcich & Ash.

I would prefer someone other than Meyer but don’t know who that would be unless John Harbaugh and perhaps Kyle Shanahan could be lured to the Forty Acres. There are certainly a few viable prospects out there, but Meyer is the only sure thing.

 

See I think 6-4 keeps Herman, unless Meyer is available. If so, and a bunch of rich dudes are ready to write a check to get rid of someone who's apparently not liked by them, then Meyer is coach.

But if Meyer doesn't want the job, then who do you propose the big money guys hire instead? Hard to get them to pony up for another coach, who's agent is going to want the same 5 year, 6 million per year deal as is current, for yet another up and coming coach.

5-5 maybe, but I think 6-4 keeps him around, if no Meyer.

 

Nope.

Yep.

Didn't watch the game yesterday but everything I've seen so far leads me to believe this team has at least two more losses coming. I'm also buying 6-4 and missing the Big 12 CCG. Failed season.

I don't particularly want Meyer either but he is available and probably the closest option to a sure thing. Shannahan is an NFL guy and I doubt he'll ever be in play. Not sold on Harbaugh at all. We'd get better but he can't get the OSU monkey off his back even though his team should have won a couple of those. If he leaves Michigan his record vs the buckeyes will likely have a lot to do with it. We need someone who understands big game rivalries and can win them. Urban Meyer understands.

 

I said at the start of the year we would go 7-3 and was pooped for it. This team has talent at a few positions. They do not have talent like Alabama,ohio state,and the elite programs. They dont even have the talent level of a rebuilding OU. I watched the TCU_OU game and it was apparent OU has better players. Texas players may have been great out of High School,but they are not being developed by the coaches here. You put that with the players sense of entitlement and it spells disaster.This team will do no better than 6-4 for this year. We will have to keep Herman because of money problems. May as well get used to being an average team with no trophies except the one from the Alamo Bowl.

 

@Duck Dodgers

Went back and re-read a bit. I was just assuming you meant Jim Harbaugh? John has been in the NFL for 23 years, has a good thing going with the Ravens, and has never been a college head coach. Not that he couldn't of course, but I just don't see a scenario where he would be interested in the Texas job?