Everyone SAYS that we win and we're in. I'd like to believe them. I really would. But I'm the skeptical type. I was THAT kid as a 4 year old who asked the nuns, "But then who made God?" After last years debacle, pardon me if I don't trust what the experts say. I've got to find out for myself. Colley Matrix computer has a "What if" feature that allows you to do several hypothetical games. PLAYING GOD So I went through our main competitors to see where we'd end up in the computers... At least this one. True, not all comps are the same, but certainly the way things trend in this one would be indicative of how all respond. If Boise State wins out - They'd have a rating of .867 If Gtech wins out (beating Clemson in ACC title - .9178 TCU wins out - .903 Cincy wins out - .91778 Texas wins out and beats Nebraska in title game - .94793. (if we happen to play kstate or Kansas - .944 or .943 Bama wins out - 1.013 Florida wins out - .981 1-loss Bama -(they lose to florida in champ game - .945 1-loss Florida (losing to Bama in champ game - .93 2-loss Oregon - .893 2-loss USC- .873 So if things fall like most people think. Scenario A. Texas beats Nebraska and Florida beats Bama #1. Florida #2. Texas #3. Bama. #4. Gtech #5.Cincy #6. TCU #7. Oregon #8. USC #9. Boise State Scenario B Texas beats Kstate & Bama beats Florida #1. Bama #2. Texas #3. Florida #4. Gtech #5. Cincy #6. TCU ****Let's pretend pac-10 beats each other up #7. Boise Some observations. #1. Let's hope that we play Nebraska in the north. - If Bama loses, they may stay ahead of us in the comps. #2. GO GEORGIA TECH. If they win out they create a big wedge. #3. Boise & TCU are absolutely not a threat to us. #4. Cincy is the biggest threat of the 3 behind us. TCU winning out actually creates a human poll wedge that won't allow them to get close enough to us. I may expound on this later, but TCU winning is good for us! #5. It appears that Bama winning would be slightly better for us, but SEC champ loser is the bigger computer threat than the other 3 undefeateds. BTW... you can do similar calculating with similar results on this other computer... The Link The results will be very similar for the little bit of tinkering i have done. Gtech & SEC & Big12 get huge gains from champ game that TCU & CIncy & Boise just cannot overcome. EVEN IF!!!!! Somehow TCU split 2nd place votes with us down the middle after championship week, we'd still be in because our comp score WILL be better.
We don't need a wedge between us and TCU, because we'll definitively be ahead of them in the polls. TCU could even be slightly ahead in the computers and it wouldn't matter - but they won't be. Beyond that, it doesn't matter if a 1-loss Alabama stays ahead of us in the computers either. Cinci is not a threat either. Be skeptical all you want, but the math says we win, we're in.
I believe TCU plays Wyoming a Wyoming next week. The outcome of that game may make the human polls interesting. If TCU beats Wyoming with a score like 52-0, they will start to get even more attention. For those with short memories, we beat them 42-10.
I agree with you joe. Just trying to come up with strange hypotheticals and doing the math. Even the strangest ones favor us.
Basically only Iowa had a chance to mess us up, and the little purple people eaters from northwestern took care of that. We win out, and we will play for the NC. R.J.
Texas wins out and beats Nebraska in title game - .94793. (if we happen to play kstate or Kansas - .944 or .943 1-loss Bama -(they lose to florida in champ game - .945 So if we play K-State and Florida beats bama, it is an SEC rematch? Bama .945 Texas .943
I did these calculations yesterday. My guess is that the South Florida game and others during the week were updated, maybe? There will definitely be minor things that weren't accounted for... but again... the general trend is telling and while one 1/100 of a point may change here or there... the big lead we show on TCU or Cincy will not change... just too big.
I am really hoping the SEC champ winner has a loss. Assuming Cincy or TCU wins out, things get really interesting and will fall to the voters. This is an interesting post, but remember it is about 1 computer poll of 6, and all the computer polls only represent 1/3rd. Computer polls really only matter if the human polls are in the same neighborhood. Also, last year, had that NU a-hole kicker not made that 65 yarder versus CU, or had (I think) the Mizzou kicker made his 40 something one versus Kansas--Texas was in. Or had Cincy (and OU opponent) lost to WV in the a squaker instead of vice versa--that might have made the difference. It was because the human polls were so close all these tiny parameters involving Texas/OU opponents made the difference--and truly it was not determined until the last regular season weekend and including many game having nothing to do with either the Sooners and Longhorns except that the were beaten opponents many weeks or months before.
I almost want a Florida-Alabama rematch in the title game with several undefeated teams watching in disbelief. The BCS would implode, and there would be no unanimous national champion.
