The U.S. Senate has 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats (including two independents). The 2018 Senate election takes place on November 6, 2018. There are 35 seats up in 2018*, of which 26 are held by Democrats. That party will need to gain 2 seats to take control.
So, GOP can lose half of their incumbent races and still have 51-52 seats assuming those 5 Dem incumbents lose.
What's worrisome is that those incumbents actually have to lose. However, Dems have been losing their advantage in recent weeks, so that's encouraging. Honestly, in these close races, I think the Kanye factor could make difference. If he makes it "ok" for even a small number of blacks not to vote Democratic (even if they don't vote GOP) that's major problem for Democrats.
It won't matter what Rudy says if the Dems keep talking impeachment. That will really inspire all the republicans to get out and vote.
Impeachment will hurt Dem's. In fact, I could see the right serving up DJT on a platter to stave off a blue wave.
Two things on this. First, of course we set the standard for acceptable conduct extremely low in the 1990s. If there's a sexual angle at all, anything is ok, including a felony to cover it up. So if Stormy Daniels has anything to do with the impeachment effort, it should be summarily dismissed. If we're talking about an illegal campaign contribution, a sleazy payoff, or even some bank fraud, that's all ok. That wasn't my standard, but it is the Democrats' standard and the standing precedent. Second, I agree that the GOP will likely use the impeachment threat to raise money and motivate the base. However, I don't think that's very effective. Democrats did that in 2014. They did almost everything they could to make sure that Obama getting impeached by Republicans was in the news even though the Republican leadership was basically saying it was off the table. It didn't save them from a red wave, and they were even able to supplement it with the race card and had the media helping them. If it didn't work for them, it won't work for the GOP.
How many people are aware that donors to the Obama campaign were officially guilty of giving more than allowed, in quantities more than $130,000? All they had to do was pay a small fine. Then Dinesh de Souza gave $20,000 to a candidate which is also above the upper limit, and he spent 6-12 months under a type of house arrest. It is more evidence of political corruption by the Democrats. They have politicized supposedly non-partisan government agencies for the party's own benefit. Sounds like the political party Joseph McCarthy wasn't too fond of. Maybe Republicans should use that to motivate their base to vote.
Where is the media on Cardenas? "Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on Saturday called for an ethics investigation into San Fernando Valley Democratic Rep. Tony Cárdenas, who this week acknowledged that he is the unnamed defendant in a Jane Doe lawsuit alleging he molested a 16-year-old girl. Cárdenas has vehemently denied the allegations....." http://www.latimes.com/politics/ess...thics-investigation-1525547434-htmlstory.html
It tends to mean that, but when we're talking about a 16 year old girl, that isn't good enough. If you're an adult, you can't sexually touch a 16 year old girl who isn't your wife. It doesn't matter if she says it's ok or even asks you to do it.
It seems to usually be good enough for Democrats. Touching a 16YO is not as bad as leaving a woman to drown, but Uncle Teddy made out OK.
And elected an electable GOP candidate against Manchin in WV. So, that’s at least 7 Senate Dem incumbents that are on the ropes.
Article asks if the Midwest the Next South for the Democratic Party? Since 2008, Dems have lost dozens of state legislative seats. More than half of the "pivot" counties and 4 pivot states - OH, IA, MI, WI are in the Midwest. 44% of voters in these areas think Dem Party is too liberal. That's a big seawall to a Blue Wave https://amgreatness.com/2018/05/09/is-the-midwest-the-next-south-for-the-democratic-party/
Former Rep Blake Farenthold announced today that he will not repay the $83k settlement that he previously committed to repaying tax payers. Per the norm, he blames it on his lawyers.
It sounds weak, but if there's a chance of subsequent litigation arising from the harassment, I wouldn't want my client to have made such a payment.
Some state politics Dem turnout near a 100-year low ("smallest number of ballots cast — in the 14 Democratic gubernatorial primary runoffs held since 1920")
