2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

Yes, it’s all modeling but here is the best part: the owner of the outfit is a left-leaning shop.

 

Okay, but how did they do in 2016?

 

It’s a new shop. Besides some states actually have Republican and Dem ballots for VBM and/or hard party registrations.

 

Forty years ago they hated Texans for different reasons. We owned much of it and they didn't like our "style"

 

GDP data released Thursday

 

Watchin Trump in AZ
He just introduced McCarthy who Trump said would be the next House Speaker
Mccarthy said when he took the gavel he would not bang Nancy with it but would gavel in a newer era
NIgel on now

 

No votes have been counted yet

 

Not even in Florida?

 

Not sure about FL, but generally, it's a statistical inference, based upon party affiliation, where this is known. IMO, this leads to more accurate predictions than polling. It did in 2016. I relayed quite a bit of that info in the 2016 election thread but it was largely ignored.

I think most states can begin processing them early, but they are not allowed to actually tabulate votes early. "Processing" meaning open the envelope, check its validity, maybe look at signatures - things of this nature. But I think the vast majority cannot start tabulating votes until the actual day of the election

 

Come on, Minnesota.

 

Trump knows how to talk to the people/ Obama did too
Where is Biden?
Now Trump is boogying to YMCA
How many hundreds of thousands have attended his rallies and watched?
Where is Biden?

 

Cracks me up every time.
Some gay folks are upset about the "cultural misappropriation" of their "national anthem." But I think its time for them to stop always being so prissy about everything, loosen up and have some fun. And Trump, to sort of "drive the point home" even more, has Elton John as his number two rally song. Heh

 

Interesting that the Village People are ok with it. Good for them
I hope they are making a ton off it.

 

Arizona update
The Dem lead in EV shrank by another 4,000 this afternoon
Now ~71k total
At this rate, the Dem EV lead could easily be down near D+30k by election day, in a state which usually has a large R in-person voting presence

Still too close to call, but completely within range for an R-win and hold of the Senate seat

 

Some more Nevada, a local paper
click once to enlarge





The early voting blog

 

Now Rs +424,386
FL In Person Early Voting
Pushing the Dems total early lead below 200k (196,522)

 

JF
Aren't you concerned that the DMC will step up cheating to overcome real people voting?

 

Pennsylvania
While over 50% of the EVs have been by Dems, only about a third of total voters have voted early
I see it as good news for Trump

 

My hope is that the margins will be too large to fake
I think it will be that way in Florida

 

No. They count them on Election Day and report that night.

 

Correct but PA will not process until after the other votes are counted.

 

Could this increased youth vote doom the republicans? Early Nat'l Data Shows Strong Turnout Of Young Voters

 

Iowa Youth Straw Poll winners include Trump, Ernst

 

The comparison to 2016 is ridiculous. Early voting is 5x than 2016. Completely different make-up. The kids % will probably drop on Election Day. Regardless this data doesn’t support anything. Notice there was no final number in 2016 to provide another comparison

 

That's good. Nobody would ever want to touch that gavel again.

 

Crazy story - perhaps out of place here somewhat - perhaps not

 

Apparently the rural vote in Nevada is coming in relatively huge for Trump
The 2016 rural Nev vote was +58k Trump
State Dems originally thought he might get up to +70k this time
Now it looks more like +80k
State Dems voicing concern now - Hillary won 2016 by ~27k
This one is going to be close, but Trump will have a good shot

 

Hopefully they have copies, also pdf? That’s on them.

 

Story on the repercussions of the recent SCOTUS decision regarding Penn

“I reluctantly conclude that there is simply not enough time at this late date to decide the question before the election,” Alito wrote in his opinion. Nevertheless, he added that the case “remains before us” and could be decided “under a shortened schedule” after the election takes place.

The upshot of Alito’s opinion: Pennsylvania will conduct its election. Ballots that arrive before Election Day will most likely be counted. But ballots that arrive during the three-day window that follows may still be tossed out.​

The Supreme Court’s latest decision looks like a win for voting rights. It’s really a threat.

Could end up applying to North Carolina too

"Moore, like Republican Party, could potentially be revisited after the election. So it’s possible that ballots cast in North Carolina could also be invalidated after the election has already happened.​

 

An intervening criminal act is not generally considered foreseeable