This will be our biggest game yet. Hopefully our ladies will bring their best game and knock off the Bears. No game previews yet, but will post when they are available tonight. Plus, looking forward to Bab's pregame analysis. Go Lady 'Horns! Beat the Bears!
So who wins this game? Smart money probably picks Baylor. Baylor is 6-0 in conference while Texas comes in at 3-3. Baylor struggled in their first two games but won both. Texas opened up with two straight losses. Since then, the Lady Bears have run their record to 6-0 while the Horns have won three of their last four to even their Big12 record at 3-3. Looking at Big 12 stats, the two are close to each other in many categories. While Baylor has a slight edge in many offensive categories, Texas has an edge in several defensive stats. Baylor has a big edge in scoring average, 70.3 to 62.2 ppg and scoring margin, +13.0 to UT’s +2.3. Baylor is hitting a better FG %, 41.1 to 35.3, even though the Horns have taken 14 more shots per game. The Lady Bears are averaging 4.3 3s per game while the Horns make 3.8 per game. They have a slight edge in 3fg% at 30.1% to Texas’ 27.1%. The Lady Bears own a +2.2 rpg edge on opponents while Texas is a negative 1 rpg. Okay, so Texas has an edge on only three categories: FT%, 72.9 to 72.1; steals: 10.7 to 10; and TO margin: +4.8 to +3.8. Baylor has an edge in just about everything else, not a big edge but an edge, nonetheless. Baylor has all five starters averaging double figures in Big 12 play: Tisdale (5-7 Sr. G, 15.5 ppg); Allison (6-1 Jr. F, 13.5 ppg); Player (5-10 Jr. G, 12.7 ppg); Morrow (6-0 Jr. G/F, 11.4 ppg); and Wilson (6-3 Soph. P, 10.0 ppg). Baylor averages 70.3 ppg. Their starters give them 63.1 ppg or 90% of their pts. The Horns, on the other hand, have only two players in double digit scoring in Big 12 play: Brit at 14.8 and Ashley with 11.3. Three others average between 8.7 and 6.7 ppg. The team averages 62.2 ppg in conference and the starters provide 44 pts. That means that the bench provides 29% of the pts. For Baylor, Allison, Player, and Tisdale have started all 19 games. Wilson has started all 18 games she played in. Morrow has started 16 of the 18 games she has played in, including the last three conference games. Four of the starters are averaging over 31 minutes a game. Player (35.3), Allison (33.5), Tisdale (32.7) and Morrow (31.6) don’t come out very often. Wilson averages 26.2 mpg, including three games of 30+ minutes. Baylor basically plays eight players with Jones, a 5-10 guard, averaging 20.3 mpg, Bradley, a 6-3 F/P, with 14.3 mpg, and 5-8 G Griffin averaging 9.7 mpg. Only one starter for Texas averages over 30 minutes in Big 12 play—Brittainey with a 33 mpg average. Kat, usually the first player off the bench for Texas, averages 31.3 mpg. The rotation for Texas, like for Baylor, is usually eight although the minutes are spread out a bit more for the Horns. This could be an ugly game, with both teams emphasizing defense. Baylor is 3rd in scoring defense while Texas is 4th. In a league that likes to shoot the 3, neither of these two likes to give up an open three. Baylor is second in 3pt FG defense and Texas is a step behind in fourth place. The biggest problem for Texas will be containing Allison, who at 6-1, is an outstanding post player equally at ease on either end of the court. She’s second on the team in scoring (13.5), first in rebounding (7.8), first in FTA (29) and second in FT% (80.6), first in steals (2.17) and makes the occasional 3, including 3-4 against OU. It’s likely that Earnie will match up against her initially although various others will also take turns defending her. Player and Tisdale present problems with their ability to penetrate, pass and hit the outside jumper. The Horns backcourt will need to stay out of foul trouble. Crystal could play an important part providing quickness and speed against Player and Tisdale while giving Brit, Ebay and Carla a break. I like the way that the Horns match up with Baylor, especially with Carla getting healthier between each game. If she can stay out of foul trouble, the Horns have a good shot at upsetting the Lady Bears. I think, that along with A&M and OU, we are probably one of the few teams that can match Baylor’s team and individual speed and quickness. What has been a weakness for the Horns, depth in the post, has been getting better as Audrey and Rachel get more playing time although that will be tested against Baylor. Both Nash sisters can also play inside. Niqky also provides quickness around the basket. If the team can maintain focus, they are capable of upsetting Baylor. Making at least 40% of their shots would sure help. They have brought the defense to almost all the games, it’s the offense that has gone missing. But it has shown up in the last couple of games. An appearance this Wednesday could mean good things for the Horns. The Horns have looked confident and unhurried in running their offense recently. They will face a lot of pressure from Baylor. Baylor had only 11 TOs against A&M's pressure D, six by Tisdale. The Horns will have to cause 20 plus TOs by the Lady Bears and convert them into points to give themselves a chance to pull off the upset.
20 plus turnovers by Baylor would be nice but I don't think it is necessary to win. If we continue to attack the rim and get into the lane the way we have lately, play good pressure defense, and REBOUND, we have a shot at this one. It would sure be nice to beat them on their home floor. GO HORNS!!
Yeah, their home floor...which is MIGHTY mean-spirited and completely obnoxious. That factor is going to be hard, as always.
But oh how nice it would be to beat them in their own venue. I'd love to see Mulkey's face if we can pull it off. GO HORNS!!!
Orangehoops, I believe we will get them tonite.If we continue to play pressure defense the way we do.Fans if you can get to the game.Please go, they will need your support! Wish the game was on TV.
WacoTribune: Making the transition to Big 12 a learning experience for Texas' Goestenkors (site requires registration)
28-24, Baylor up at the half. Turnovers appear to be an issue for both teams, we had 15 and Baylor had 10. Fouls show that Baylor was only whistled 5 times and we tallied 10 in the half. Shooting percentages are low for both teams with Baylor having a 36-32% edge...we appear to be winning the battle of the boards 26-17, including 13 on the offensive end of the floor.
9:22 to go, 45-40 Baylor we have the slight edge in shooting right now at 38-35%. Points off of turnovers are an absolute killer though, with Baylor having a 23-6 edge there. Ashley needs one more rebound for a double-double. She also has four blocks so far.
Wow, what a game!!! Great job, Horns! We almost beat the #6 team in the nation! I'm proud of the team for playing tough tonight.
OK. There is no such thing as a good loss. But this team played tough on the road for the first time this season, and if they had made their second half free throws, they would have won fairly easily. OU is going down in the Drum this weekend. And if the improvement continues, I am more confidant that this team will not allow Texas to miss the NCAA's for an unprecedented three years in a row. Everyone except Raven came to play tonight. We need our leading scorer not to dribble the ball off her leg in the closing minutes of a tight game on the road, and to score a couple of points in the first half.
I was at the game and hot diggity dog it was a nail biter at the end. We almost upset the #6 Team in the nation. All I have to say is Gail has these ladies playing tough defense. When we get our offense going on all cylinders we're going to be tough to beat. We couldn't purchase a bucket tonight. Raven had 6 points so whatever game plan Mulkey had on her worked. I'm sure the next game Coach G will figure out how to get Raven open. And then the dribble off the leg. AARRGGHH!!! We almost had this game. I say they are mastering the defense better than the offense so the last half of this season lets work on the offense. It left much to be desired. Hook'em HORNS!!!
No disrespect to Coach Conradt, but with a more talented (on paper) last year (that included Jackson) lost to a very youthful Baylor team (except for senior Mosby) in Waco by 15 points. This year, the team loses a heartbreaker on the road to a more veteran and 6th ranked Baylor team by one point...and without Jackson and Arriaran. Sure sounds like things are progressing nicely. Just wait until Gail brings in some highly touted recruits.
This is exactly what we should have expected when Coach G arrived. This team is making progress and is becoming more and more competitive. We have several wins over top 25 teams and the losses that we have had were not been bad losses to teams that are considered far inferior to us. It's all about March! This team will not miss the NCAAs this year and by the time March rolls around they will have made more progress and will be competitive in the tournament. As far as Raven's performance, she has carried this team many times this year. She may have had a bad game but that is when others have to step up and help carry the load. If you ask me the real issue is that Bailey and Williams combined for 10 points and a combined 3 for 9 shooting. That's too few points and too few shots for two starters. Those two need to show up in the big games.
Can anyone explain to me,why when your outside shoot is not working! We do not drive to the basket! We have tall guards,post the smaller guards up.Lets get ready for OU. Lets fight ladys! Great job Ashley and Carla.
Like most other posters in this string, I was proud of the effort as I listened to it on internet radio. Playing on the road, in one of the toughest conferences this year, in front of a hostile crowd (though it was nice to hear the UT contingent, too), I think they played with the passion Coach G has been asking for. Too bad they struggled a bit with turnovers and free throws. While there are never really "moral victories" at Texas, I was proud of the effort.
