#3 Texas-Start to panic over BCS ranking

#3 Texas-"Start to panic over BCS ranking", says Matt Hayes with Sporting News. He thinks TCU may jump UT if UT doesn't play absolutely lights out in their remaining games.

Time to Panic

 

Fla or Alabma vs Texas
Fla or Alabama Vs TCU

You talk about millions of dollars in lost revenue for the BCS if the second senerio were to happen.

 

He is wrong, but our putrid OOC schedule and the extreme weakness of the Big XII this year means that we will see more articles like this in the next few weeks.

 

Move along. Nothing to see here.

 

It's not what you could have done to teams, it's what you score.I say score 70 points.

 

isn't he a sooner?

 

The media feeds off controversy. In order to have controversy they usually help create it. All we can do is win out. If we get passed up then we can start complaining, til then there's nothing we can do. Besides if we got passed up two years in a row simply because of the system, this would almost spell doom for the BCS.

 

An extra win against an opponent we have not played in the regular season (NU or KSU) will help us in the computers. Period.

TCU is also already ahead of Texas in the computers so there isn't much more they can gain there.

Texas will be the consensus number 2 in both human polls. TCU will be splitting votes for 3/4/5 with Cincy, Boise St and whoever loses the SEC championship game.

Not going to happen.

 

Actually Matt makes a damn good point: Texas has to keep impressing the humans to be assured it stays #3.

Texas will not improve its computer position, but could easily see it drop a bit further once TCU beats Wyoming, or the Cowboys drop another game. Meanwhile the computers love TCU so it's already got that over Texas. If the humans flip-flop us and TCU, we're done.

So it's up to the humans to keep Texas playing for the national championship. TCU is breathing, if not quite down our necks, a half-stride behind us. If they blow out their remaining games and we squeak by ours, we could drop to #4 in the AP/Coaches prior to the SEC Championship game. And that, my friends, would suck.

Note that it's NOT the weak OOC schedule that would do us in, but it's not helping. What would do us in is phoning it in for any of the remaining games. We got a free pass against UCF in that regard, because the passing game was so great hardly anyone faulted us for the slow start, failing to cover the spread and a weak running game.

To keep up the media love we need to win convincingly, develop an efficient running game, and keep doing all the other great things we're doing with defense, the passing game and special teams. And of course root for everyone that plays TCU starting with Utah (sorry, my dear Horned Frog wife).

 

Matt Hayes has been mad at us ever since we got into the Rose Bowl instead of CAL (his alma mater) in 04/05.

The next fall he wrote an article about how much better Reggie McNeal was than VY.

In fairness, I think he did however write a nice article about us after we beat USC>

 

"UnderratedNo. 8 LSU. That's right, LSU. A list of the teams better than the Tigers: Florida, Alabama. Maybe Texas."

Him throwing this little snip in tells us that he is only having wishful thinking in TCU passing the Horns.

 

Matt Hayes used to joyfully trash Mack Brown and Texas this decade when we had trouble with OU. He also wrote that infamous article where he said Vince Young was horrible and Reggie McNeal was the best QB in the Big 12.

I can see being down on Texas every once in a while when we deserve it but he clearly has no crediblity in my mind. I think he has something personal against Mack Brown, he used to savagely rip him when he was at North Carolina also for his inability to beat Florida State IIRC.

 

Forget the messenger, but the message is valid. Look at what happened to Alabama. We need to win big to be assured of keeping our spot in the human polls. It will take a lot of changed votes for TCU to overtake us, but if we sputter against Baylor and Aggies, it could happen.

 

Sorry, but from a BCS standpoint this has been a boring year and as a result, writers are talking about these doomsday scenarios to keep readers looking at their stuff.

There's no way an undefeated non AQ team makes it in over an undefeated AQ. While the computer may not love us because of the number of ranked teams we've beaten, the humans will love us more because the story around Colt will get bigger when he becomes the All Time Winningest QB Ever. TCU is a great story and I hope they get the SEC loser in the Sugar, but passing big brother Texas is unlikely.

 

It serves us well if Cincy & Boise win out. Right now those two schools are also getting 4th place votes.

Right now Florida is in like 1.3 place. Texas is 2.3 place. Bama is 2.4 place. (There is some large disagreement about the top 3 but its nearly unanimous WHO the top 3 are)

You have a similar situation with the next 3 teams. TCU is in like 4.3 place. Cincy at 5.2 place & Boise 5.5 place. Most have TCU ahead in this group, but its not a given. Cincy was hurt because of a close win over UConn. Cincy can easily leapfrog again because they have bigger games remaining.

 

TCU will lose to Utah and Cinnci will get destroyed by Pitt and West Virginia.

Texas wins out we are National Champions, PERIOD!!!!!

Even if TCU and Cinci wins out, all TEXAS has to do is win out!!!!!!!!

 

I remember the 83 season when we were undefeated going into the Cotton Bowl. Everyone was convinced that we needed to hang a hundred on Georgia to have a shot at the MNC. By halftime everyone knew that was not going to happen, and we played the game with very little spark. In the end, catching a punt would have likely done the trick.

Just win.

 

if the unthinkable happens and an undefeated TCU goes to the national championship over an undefeated texas, regardless of the margin of victory yall have, the BCS will be over.

TCU vs whoever would mean significantly less revenues from the game, advertising, attendance, the whole nine.

if it does happen, then say good bye to the BCS.

 

Guys, guys, GUYS!!!!!
Please, this is stupid!!!

First, look at the messenger. The Cal people are still too stupid to figure out that the computers - and not Mack Brown - put Texas ahead of Cal in '04.

Second, as has been pointed out over and over again, a computer advantage only does you good if it is an enormous one. That is NOT the case here! TCU would have to be #1 in virtually all the computers to pass Texas!!! That is not going to happen. TCU will probably be about tied with Texas in the final computer rankings. They will not even be close to passing us in the final BCS rankings.

I was one of the main posters warning about the threat of Iowa, so its not like I am blind to BCS issues. But Iowa was flirting with being #1 in all the computers. TCU is not in any way, shape, or form a threat to do the same.

The only way TCU could threaten Texas is if they jump us on a sizable number of human ballots. That is not going to happen!

PLEASE, let's not start stupid BCS rumors! Texas has nothing to fear as long as we win out, even if we win ugly.

 

1. It is always time to panic.

2. That dude does hate Texas. Here is how it evolves: a sportswriter is ordered to write a man-bites-dog piece. You can't write something that conforms with the majority opinion/ conventional wisdom. But if you write the headline: "Central Florida will win BCS Title" or whatever you will be regarded as an damn fool when it doesnt happen. So instead, you try to identify a cinderella or dark horse (TCU, cincinnati) with at least some hope & write and overblown article jocking them and saying they "have a legitimate chance" to beat Goliath.

First, a lot of people click your article because (1) most people root for underdogs, (2) most people resent "arrogant" Goliath for winning every week, and (3) some people love this particular Goliath and want to argue with you/ pick your argument apart/ make fun of you/ email you and call you a moron.

You're guaranteed a big readership and lots of feedback (proving lotsa people pay attention to you). Plus, if you get lucky and cinderella wins, you look like a savant.

When (as usual) Goliath wins, you look a little foolish. But as long as you dont mention the bad prediction, almost everyone will forget. Some fans will remember, but when cornered, just fall back on the old axiom -- "I said the underdog had a realistic chance. That was correct -- even though they lost by 30..."

Of course, fans of Goliath will castigate you for being stupid. At that point, you start to bear a secret grudge against them and their team. Hence, you habitually insert silly little digs against that program into future articles to get "revenge."

 

Yep. You want a playoff, just f**k the second winningest program of all time, a recent national champion, and a team that goes 24-1 over a two year period out of a shot at the MNC because, well, you feel like it.

Seriously, just try it ************.

 

I cannot believe anyone would believe TCU would be moved ahead of an undefeated University of Texas in the BCS title game. As others have stated this would be the end of the BCS. TCU cannot sell out a 44K stadium in one of the largest metropolitan areas in the country. Matt Hayes or some other jackass will continue to make these claims and several folks on this board will buy that nonsense fear the worst. The recipe is just win baby.

 

Right now no one in the AP poll has TCU ranked higher than 4. Two-thirds of them have TCU ranked lower. Even with the computers ranking them better, and even higher next week, Texas would have to really look bad for two games to drop behind TCU with the voters. I know the AP is not used, but the voter patterns are the same.

Hayes is not trying to be factual. He is trying to get reader reaction. It's working, unfortunately.

 

Of course. .brother Hayes needs to factor in the "New Mexico' computer turd dropping.

Wasn't Utah ranked 13th in the computers prior to its "epic struggle" against a hapless New Mexico team?... and after the game, their computer ranking dropped to 20th????

Good for little TCU this year... they are having a good year. No reason to get your shorts in a twist though.

 

Borrowed from Tokamak on another board...

Its syntex worthy in analysis.

"Let's say we split the first place votes down the middle with the SEC winner. That gives us 1445 points in the coaches (.980) and 2793 in the Harris (.980). That's a best-case scenario for us, as if Florida wins the SECCCG they will certainly retain the lion's share of 1st place votes. Furthermore, assume that TCU moves up to a unanimous #3 after the SECCCG (.920 in both polls).

As of right this moment, Texas' remaining opponents have a combined record of 20-16 (.556 winning pct) (assuming Nebraska in Big 12 CCG). TCU's remaining opponents have a combined record of 12-16 (.429 winning pct). Of course it's very difficult to predict what will happen in the future, but it seems unlikely that TCU can gain much at all on Texas in the computers. But just to be as thorough as possible, assume that TCU ticks up .02 in the computers to .900 and Texas somehow loses .02 down to .850.

That gives Texas (.980+.980+.850)/3 = .9367 and TCU (.920+.920+.900)/3 = .9133. So even given the rather pessimistic (for Texas) computer predictions, Texas still has a fairly decent BCS lead of >.02.

If we assume that Texas will be a unanimous #2 after the SECCCG, its average would then be (.960+.960+.850)/3 = .9233, still a full .01 better than TCU.

In order to pass an undefeated Texas, TCU probably needs the following things:
1) Florida to soundly beat Alabama and be an overwhelming #1 in both polls
2) Texas to look extremely shaky and slip to #3 or lower on some ballots
3) TCU to completely destroy its remaining opponents to grab some #2 votes away from Texas
4) Texas' opponents to completely tank and TCU's to keep winning (computer rankings)

It will be very, very, very difficult for TCU to pass an undefeated Texas in the BCS standings."