Bedford... Hot seat or nah?

Amazingly this hasn't been talked about much, we all know how horrible we were last year but here are some numbers.

"The defense wound up being ranked in unsavory spot on the school’s single-season charts in several areas: the No. 2 worst scoring defense (30.3 points per game), most first downs allowed (306), No. 3 worst rushing defense (219.2 yards per game) and the worst effort in terms of total defense (452.6 yards per game allowed) in any season in the program’s history."

His first year here with minimal NFL talent he did produce a top 25 D. Last year was full of terrible angles and bad tackling and other fundermental breakdowns... However, we are playing a tremendous number of freshman.

 

Should he be? Yes!

Should he have already been replaced? Yes!

Will he be on the hot seat? NO! If for no other reason than Strong can't get anyone worthy of the job to replace him. Face it, this is not a "Texas caliber" coaching staff, and there isn't a line of qualified candidates to grab any openings. How can that be with the grossly negligent salaries and contract terms that Patterson gave away? Another FIRST for The University of Texas!

 

We're Texas.

Hook'em!

sp

 

Diaz had better numbers than Bedford last year.

 

It's ironic you would would post this as the defense has been the #1 topic I've talked about with Longhorn friends and I've certainly mentioned it in some of my posts here. Regardless of talent or experience level there is never any excuse for a Texas defense to not be at least top 50.

When Hicks, Brown, Diggs and Thomson were gone I was telling friends we would take a hit. But friends kept saying, no Vance and Charlie will "Coach them UP" and then the defense ended up being substantially worse than even I projected. So much for coaching them up. I was saying Vance should have been the 1st one to be fired. However, that did not happen, but it sure better if our defense doesn't make a significant improvement this year.

And, coincidently, with 6 significant contributors gone from last year's BB team we'll find out just how good of a coach Shaka Smart is this year.

 

Way I see it is Vance rides the hot seat if the defense is the main culprit in causing an excess of losses.

8-5 with a leaky defense, maybe he survives due to fan satisfaction we won 8 and considering youth of the defense.

To reach 8 I'd assume his defense showed well in a decent amount of wins. But multiple ugly blowouts would cause unrest regardless of records.

6 losses while surrendering points in bunches...CS likely has to change DC's to bolster his case for retention and signal coming improvement well beyond 7 wins.

7 losses and the whole thing blows up with all swords pointing at the top.

 

5 or more losses and it should be up to the new head coach whether Bedford stays or goes.

 

Hot seat? Not yet, but by the end of the year

Nice thought, except for the niggling little fact that there won't be a new head coach with only 5 losses.

 

That's why I said "should", but then again, if Powers had done what he was "should" have done, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

I never thought I would live to see The University of Texas football program saying that five losses is acceptable or making progress.

 

Oh how far expectations have fallen. Imagine if that latitude was around back in 2013. We'd still be talking about Sally's cookies right now.

 

Brad,

Such is the great and grand legacy of one Bill Powers. I know he is sooo proud of the dynasty he has created. It takes a gynormous f**k up to make Wallace Hall, JR look smart.

 

My phrase "only 5 losses" is meant in one specific sense, and that is an 8-5 record will not see Charlie job hunting next Spring. It does not mean everybody in the fanbase should accept 5 losses as some new lower standard. Stop projecting your personal BS onto other people's statements.

 

My statement stands. As a supporter, who has missed one home game since 1965, I never thought I would live to see the day that five losses was acceptable. That comment was not directed at you, but rather at a clueless administration that would use a five loss season as a qualifier to keep an under performing coaching staff. Five losses is great at KU, Iowa State, and a large group of other neverwas wannabes and never willbes. but it is not acceptable at The University of Texas, a program which was the premier program less than a decade ago. That rapid decline falls clearly on an administration that took gross negligence to a whole new level.

 

And my final sentence was directed more towards Brad's post than yours. Sabre.

I predicted 9-3 this season (I'm optimistic, obviously). If we instead go 8-4 and lose our bowl game I will not consider this season a failure. Nor will I consider it a failure if we go 7-5 and then win our bowl game, even though those numbers fall below my rosy preseason prediction.

With that said, I will get disgruntled pretty damn quick if that 8-5 mark proves to be a plateau instead of a point on a trendline back towards elite status.

It should be easy for a guy as smart as Brad to grasp, yet he seems to delight in failing to grasp it.

 

I'll be the first to agree 8 wins guarantees a return. Not only that it will create massive excitement for 2017 with so much (8 wins) experience returning and maturing youth.

Only was commenting on how strange it sounds to still hear phrases like "only 5 losses" when discussing Texas football.

Most heavily invested in the program for decades view the last 2.5 years with a much wider and critical lens than the low accountability bunch with gauges starting at 2010. Not saying that's you, Sangre, just saying.

 

If Strong isn't on the hot seat, then Bedford isn't. And Strong is getting atleast two more years so no, he isn't on the hot seat.

 

Warm. Very warm. Especially if he pulls another defensive scheme like he did against Baylor where the entire world knew they were going to run almost every play yet he refused to put 4 guys on the line (he finally did late in the game). I was watching and yelling REALLY loud at the TV that we needed another DL. He should have been able to hear me and, I'm assuming, some of you too.

 

I think Bedford should be evaluated closely. His body language on the sideline is very poor, looking defeated after every bad play. He seems like he is on a string, being jerked way too easily, losing sight of a bigger picture which is keeping his young troops focused the entire game. Many of the blowouts during his tenure are, I think, partially caused by his head hanging, hand wringing, and "oh ****, we're doomed" behavior.
I'm not sold on his schemes either, especially the poor 3rd down calls which give up too many first downs.

Regarding the defense losing the five games next year, I don't quite buy it. I just don't see our D capable of winning games for us.

Our main problem will be a true freshman QB. Talented though he is, a true frosh will make mistakes that costs games. Its unavoidable, part of the learning curve.

 

Normally I'd agree and do understand the concern is warranted, but SB's mentality/behavior seems atypical for a true Frosh.

More importantly, Gilbert's offense is infinitely more QB friendly than most.

Case in point is the true Frosh performance from Stidham in the very similar Baylor offense last year. Both he and Shane arrived during the Spring.

Stidham didn't start Week 1 but played in relief each of the first 7 games.

Even off the bench in his first 7 college appearances he went 24 of 28 (86%), 313 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT. That's insane efficiency and zero turnovers for a true Fresh.

His first college start against KSU...23 of 33 (70%), 419 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.

Through 8 appearances he was still doing nothing to cost his team.

Shane's pressure level will be higher than Stidham's by starting off as the top guy, but executing each of those offenses requires the same traits.

Not expecting miracles right away against a sound ND defense. Yet concluding he's gonna cost us games (plural) with amateur mistakes may be premature in this offense.

Sure we'll lose some with him behind center, but not sold multiple losses will solely be the fault of Shane's green mistakes anymore than those above average vets make.

It's a good bet our true Fresh QB will outperform these levels of efficiency...

2014 Swoopes - 224 of 384 (58%), 13 TD, 11 INT, 116.5 QBR
2015 Swoopes - 47 of 93 (51%), 4 TD, 1 INT, 111.1 QBR
2015 Heard - 92 of 159 (57%), 5 TD, 5 INT, 126.1 QBR

 

The only caution I would give the Stedman comparison, who did Baylor play in those first 7 games?

SMU, Lamar, Kansas, Rice, Tech, Iowa State, West Virginia........

 

And the Baylor OL blocked. I bet even I could complete a number of passes with a good OL in front of me. Although I think Shane will give us the best change to win, none of our QB's will be successful if our OL doesn't improve.

 

You make a lot of good points Brad. And I don't mean to lay any fault on Shane, as odd as that must sound after my statements about a rookie QB. But run pincher makes great points above about BU's O line being more experienced than ours, which is huge. We also will be throwing out a true freshman center. And likely another true freshman on the o line.

Plus, Shane is being rolled out in his debut against a very very good defense and one of the finest coaching staff's in the country. They will test him and confuse him and challenge him unlike anything, smu, lamar, Kansas or rice could imagine.

Its not Shanes's fault if we lose due to inexperience, any more than its a puppy's fault if he is too young to be house trained. Its just a growing pain, and a skill that is learned with time and practice. Ok, poor analogy.

But Shane is very talented and he will be a fine QB. I will not be ragging on Shane, or CS if and when we lose due to inexperience.

 

Bedford's seat should be very hot. I assume people try and lay off of him for the same reasons I do. He is a UT grad and is very likable. I want him to succeed the most of all of our coaches. He needs have the defense going again this year like it was in 2014.

 

I resisted opining on this thread as I wanted to think about it a little more before responding.

But Htown77 pretty much condensed my ongoing thoughts about Bedford.

Yes, heats on Bedford.... another season like last year and CS will have no choice but to make a change.

 

What H said, but remember Strong is the actual DC.

 

I hope we don't have another lousy defensive year like last year. If we do, someone's gonna get clipped.

 

If the D has another poor to bad season, Bedford will very likely get clipped IMO. If the Horns go 7-5 (possibly)or especially 6-6 or worse, Charlie's butt is potentially in serious danger of being clipped, too.

 

Yeah, and "clipped" ain't a good thing.

 

I get it that Charlie's expertise re: x's and o's is on the defensive side. But he is not the head coach/defensive coordinator. Vance Bedford is the DC.. Vance makes the play by play calls, he chooses personnel during the game. He may take some cues from CS, in special situations, sure. That happens with every coach. Nick Saben is a defensive guru. But he is not his DC. Bob Stoops was a Defense guy forever, and when he was hired as head coach at ou he hired a DC. And when stoopsie needed to fire a DC and hire another, he did. I could go on and on with examples.

Please give CS ownership of putting a staff together, for better or worse, and give VB the ownership of how well, or poorly, the defense executes. All the while realizing that the buck stops with CS regarding the overall success or failure of the football team. And while we're at it: HOOK EM!