Confidence 2022 Season Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by militaryhorn, Jul 15, 2022.

  1. militaryhorn

    militaryhorn Prediction Contest Guru

    In conjunction with 2022 Prediction Thread, I was thinking about having a contest for predicting the overall season. It will work like the ESPN weekly contest for predicting games that week where you pick the winner and assign a numeric value (confidence). You get the points that you assigned for that game if you predict the correct outcome. All submissions must be submitted before our first game and every game must be predicted, this is not a weekly entry contest.

    In this case, I will post the schedule and you pick whether Texas wins or loses that matchup and assign a point value. There will be extra points to earn if you pick the team they play in a Big XII Championship game.

    Here is the schedule:

    Texas vs. ULM (Home) Sept 3rd
    Texas vs. Alabama (Home) Sept 10th
    Texas vs. UTSA (Home) Sept 17th
    Texas vs. Texas Tech (Away) Sept 24th
    Texas vs. WVU (Home) Oct 1st
    Texas vs. OU (Dallas) Oct 8th
    Texas vs. Iowa St. (Home) Oct 15th
    Texas vs. Oklahoma St. (Away) Oct 22nd
    Bye Week Oct 29th
    Texas vs. Kansas St (Away) Nov 5th
    Texas vs. TCU (Home) Nov 12th
    Texas vs. Kansas (Away) Nov 19th
    Texas vs. Baylor (Home) Nov 25th
    Texas vs ??? (Arlington) Dec 3rd

    Here is an example of how to submit your entry:

    Texas vs. ULM (Home) Sept 3rd
    Texas Win 12

    Texas vs. Alabama (Home) Sept 10th
    Texas Loss 11

    Texas vs. UTSA (Home) Sept 17th
    Texas Win 10

    Texas vs. Texas Tech (Away) Sept 24th
    Texas Win 9

    Texas vs. WVU (Home) Oct 1st
    Texas Win 8

    Texas vs. OU (Dallas) Oct 8th
    Texas Win 7

    Texas vs. Iowa St. (Home) Oct 15th
    Texas Win 6

    Texas vs. Oklahoma St. (Away) Oct 22nd
    Texas Loss 5

    Bye Week Oct 29th

    Texas vs. Kansas St (Away) Nov 5th
    Texas Win 4

    Texas vs. TCU (Home) Nov 12th
    Texas Win 3

    Texas vs. Kansas (Away) Nov 19th
    Texas Win 2

    Texas vs. Baylor (Home) Nov 25th
    Texas Win 1

    Texas vs ??? (Arlington) Dec 3rd
    Texas vs. Baylor
    Texas Win

    The Big XII Championship game will award 13 pts for predicting the correct outcome you submitted (if you pick a win and Texas wins you get 13 pts) and if you have the correct team you will get an additional 20 pts.

    Another way to earn extra points is to correctly predict their overall regular season record, which will be based on your game predictions, and will receive 15 points. In my example above I predicted a 10-2 regular season, if Texas ends up having a 10-2 season I will get 15 extra points. It will not matter which games they win or lose as long as the record reflects your overall record...you get the bonus points.

    The max points you can achieve is 126 points and it is earned by predicting every game correctly and picking the Big XII Championship opponent correctly and predicting how Texas does in this game correctly.

    Ideas? Suggestions? Dumb idea?
     
  2. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 2,500+ Posts

    No one has replied to this yet?
    I like the idea.
    If I am the only participant and win, do I still get an awesome, high-quality, big ticket prize HF is known for?
     
  3. IvanDiabloHorn

    IvanDiabloHorn 1,000+ Posts

    What is the maximum confidence points per game?
     
  4. WorsterMan

    WorsterMan 10,000+ Posts

    Top prize: Allsome HF Mousepad along with 5 star dinner choice with SabreHorn.

    Second prize is budget lunch with me at Arby's!
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  5. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Must bring your own barf bucket & ******** repellant
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
  6. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 2,500+ Posts

    Well count me in....prize or not.

    I understood all except the instructions on the Championship game point allocation
     
  7. Creek

    Creek 1,000+ Posts

    The way you have the points set up, the gap between 1st and 20th place will be 2-4 points. Then if you pick the right record you get 15 points. So you pick the right record you’d win. I’d reduce the right record bonus points to 3.
     
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  8. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    Scotch with MB or a free flight with HIC are better prizes. Then there is a pickled egg with a Mich Ultra happy hour with Bubba. @OUBubba
     
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    Last edited: Jul 29, 2022
  9. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life 5,000+ Posts

    No matter where we end up I'm tired of us being hyped up everywhere every preseason. I see we're favored in every game except Bama. So what....but everyone all over social media is mocking Texas since obviously we haven't done much of anything in over a decade. I suspect we end up 9-3ish this year, but if we go 11-1 and are in playoff conversation I'm going to blast some of these idiots.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Yeah Vol I’m now a sit back and let chips fall as they may kinda fan. I’ve accepted just enjoy the event and ignore all the noise surrounding it because we haven’t rewarded the optimism in a VERY long time. Better to be a realist and happily surprised than soak in the hoopla and be disappointed once again.
    hookem
     
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  11. militaryhorn

    militaryhorn Prediction Contest Guru

    There is a twelve game schedule and you assign a point value between 1 and 12. You can only use each number once.

    For example, in game one, if you think there is no way we can lose that game you would assign 12 points to that game. Then the second game you feel that there is a 90% chance we lose that game you would put 11 points towards it.

    The OU game you might feel it's a toss up game and would only value it for 1 point. The idea is that the more confident you feel about your pick the more points you assign to that game but can only use your points once.
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2022
  12. militaryhorn

    militaryhorn Prediction Contest Guru

    For the championship game, if we make it, you pick a win or loss. If you get that correct, you will get 13 points.

    You also have to pick a team they are going to face in the Championship game, if you pick the correct team then you get 20 points regardless of the outcome of your pick on whether Texas wins or loses.

    If Texas doesn't make the game nobody gets any points for the Championship game.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2022
  13. militaryhorn

    militaryhorn Prediction Contest Guru

    I don't quite understand how you think the difference between 1st and 20th place can be 2-4 points. I might assign 12 points to a game that you assign 1 point and we both pick a win but Texas loses then I lose 12 points while you only lose 1 point. If we both pick every game correctly except the one i mentioned above then you win by 12 points.

    The 15 points is for someone who gets the record right but maybe lost a 12 point pick while someone else has the wrong record but earned more points by not winning the low confidence picks and won more of the high confidence picks.
     
  14. dukesteer

    dukesteer 5,000+ Posts

    I’m in…
     
  15. IvanDiabloHorn

    IvanDiabloHorn 1,000+ Posts

  16. CTex

    CTex 100+ Posts

    Im in
     
  17. Creek

    Creek 1,000+ Posts

    I had first read it that you only get points if Texas wins. But I see you can get points if you pick against Texas. Do we pick everything in advance or week by week?
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  18. militaryhorn

    militaryhorn Prediction Contest Guru

    You will pick everything in advance before the first game starts.
     
  19. longhornlegend

    longhornlegend 500+ Posts

    This is futile until we see if PK can field a descent defense. Hoping for 9+ but if PK makes it the full year with the same performance as last year, we may be lucky to win 4.
     
  20. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 10,000+ Posts

    "The warts are gone" - that should be worth 3-4 additional wins
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  21. WorsterMan

    WorsterMan 10,000+ Posts

  22. EDT

    EDT 1,000+ Posts

    Sabre, From your mouth to God's ears! :pray-hands:
     
  23. WorsterMan

    WorsterMan 10,000+ Posts

    EDT, dude, ..... we need a famous EDT meme!
     
  24. EDT

    EDT 1,000+ Posts

    HAHA! :smh:
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  25. Dionysus

    Dionysus Idoit Admin

    I had lunch with Sabre a few years ago and only had to apply the ******** repellant two or three times the entire meal, so it’s a very manageable situation.
     
    • Funny Funny x 3
  26. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 10,000+ Posts

    What Dion didn't reveal was that lunch was a McDonald's drive through and only lasted about four minutes.
     
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  27. LonghornCatholic

    LonghornCatholic Catholic like Sarkisian

    So the weekly predict score vs..... is gone?
     
    • Like Like x 1
  28. Dionysus

    Dionysus Idoit Admin

    The weekly prediction thread was fun if we can keep that
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  29. militaryhorn

    militaryhorn Prediction Contest Guru

    No, that will still happen. I won't post the thread until game week.

    This is a separate contest.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  30. 1sahorn

    1sahorn 500+ Posts

    I believe maximum confidence was expressed in a song written & released by Maestro McConaughey (to the team during pre-game photos) in 2006, just before the Rose Bowl. It goes like this:

    "Somebody don't think so...
    Somebody knows so."
     

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