Coronavirus

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Clean, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    I’m not in Texas, but Abbott comes across as a me too pandering politician nationally. Desantis and Noem showed real guts and leadership. Politicians like Abbott and Lee who aspire for higher office showed zero leadership.
     
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  2. AustinHorn24

    AustinHorn24 250+ Posts

    LMAO you think the people in the study I just posted were cleaning their mask every day or switching to a new one?

    You can't make reasonable comments on something you haven't even read.
     
  3. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    That was a pile of university horse ****. Tell me how there was any relatable correlation to that study. Look, wear your mask. Hell double up. The government depends on you sheep. Again, feel free to stop taking welfare here too.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. Chop

    Chop 5,000+ Posts

    It’s us and Mississippi that have just eliminated the mask requirements.
     
  5. Hollandtx

    Hollandtx 250+ Posts

    Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the hypocrisy flows from the left.
    108 illegal immigrants that tested positive for Covid hopped on buses to travel throughout the country, after hanging around in Texas and Mexico waiting.
    Of course they were not socially distancing, or wearing masks.
    They don't have to quarantine for 2 weeks to enter, don't have to show proof of vaccination, and the border patrol isn't equipped or required to test them.
    And, they may travel with the virus.

    It's a great double standard when we allow people like this in to the US easily, while the other side of the mouth spouts continued masking, isolating, social distancing, and ever other precaution.
    If Texas sees a surge over the next few weeks, who knows if it will be due to the Abbott order, or, the critical situation at the border with illegal immigrants pouring in daily.
    Either way, Abbott and Texans will be crucified.
    I simply don't understand how rational people can't see that any open borders at this moment is a terrible decision.
    Then again, I have white privilege, am practicing "whataboutism", am racist, and now, a Neanderthal.
    Don't even get me started on the dead silence on keeping these poor people in those horrible Trump cages. I'm so happy we have a real leader who CARES about people in charge of housing them in the thin tents he left behind in his previous role as VP. :rolleyes1:
     
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  6. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 1,000+ Posts

    Thought I'd drop in to drop 2 data sets for you all to consider. I'm not going back to read the last couple months of the thread, so I don't know whether this stuff has already been discussed. I'll try to drop back at some point to check in on responses, but frankly (and thankfully) HornFans is no longer part of my routine so I may not remember to.

    First, CDC's death totals lag by multiple weeks, but the 2020 data is pretty much complete now. If you go to this CDC webpage and scroll about 1/3 of the way down the page, you'll find a link to an excel spreadsheet called "National and State Estimates of Excess Deaths". Scroll down to the section giving USA totals and isolate the columns giving total actual deaths and total expected deaths (based on 95% confidence that deaths in a typical year for the week in question would be at or below that number). The difference between those columns is the number of excess deaths for the week. Here's the data:

    Week Obsvd # Avg. Exp. Excess Deaths

    2/29/2020 59305 59016 289

    3/7/2020 59691 58646 1045

    3/14/2020 58645 58156 489

    3/21/2020 59205 57686 1519

    3/28/2020 62991 57234 5757

    4/4/2020 72291 56638 15653

    4/11/2020 79063 56048 23015

    4/18/2020 76765 55410 21355

    4/25/2020 73883 54725 19158

    5/2/2020 69301 53951 15350

    5/9/2020 66783 53347 13436

    5/16/2020 64451 52878 11573

    5/23/2020 61609 52491 9118

    5/30/2020 59659 52251 7408

    6/6/2020 58858 52134 6724

    6/13/2020 58001 51992 6009

    6/20/2020 57961 51973 5988

    6/27/2020 58472 51844 6628

    7/4/2020 59777 51620 8157

    7/11/2020 61881 51476 10405

    7/18/2020 63114 51327 11787

    7/25/2020 64203 51242 12961

    8/1/2020 64153 51140 13013

    8/8/2020 63685 51162 12523

    8/15/2020 63576 51183 12393

    8/22/2020 62491 51280 11211

    8/29/2020 61003 51387 9616

    9/5/2020 60151 51603 8548

    9/12/2020 59878 51748 8130

    9/19/2020 59932 52052 7880

    9/26/2020 60778 52387 8391

    10/3/2020 59847 52693 7154

    10/10/2020 61782 52963 8819

    10/17/2020 60413 53367 7046

    10/24/2020 61897 53674 8223

    10/31/2020 63172 54011 9161

    11/7/2020 66350 54387 11963

    11/14/2020 67822 54708 13114

    11/21/2020 70708 55183 15525

    11/28/2020 72106 55681 16425

    12/5/2020 75644 56316 19328

    12/12/2020 79846 56761 23085

    12/19/2020 80548 57714 22834

    12/26/2020 81675 58766 22909

    TOTAL 2863366 2372251 491115


    This shows that an extra 491,115 people died in the USA between late February 2020 and the end of 2020, as compared to expectations over the same period. Note that this is a conservative estimate; if you compare to the average number of expected deaths (as opposed to the 95% confidence number), the count would be higher.

    I'll put the second data set in a separate post.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 1,000+ Posts

    Second, the data breakdowns by age group take even longer to compile. This article contains the following chart of deaths in the 25-44 demographic between March 2020 and July 2020:

    [​IMG]

    This reflects an estimated excess of 11,899 deaths for the 5 months in question, with a 95% confidence interval of 9373 to 14266. Only 4,535 of those deaths was formally attributed to COVID-19. While correlation does not prove causation, this strongly suggests that COVID-19 deaths in the 25-44 cohort have been severely undercounted.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    NJ
    So are you OK with Biden allowing illegals into our country?
    Illegals who tested positive and may be on their way to your state?
     
  9. mb227

    mb227 2,500+ Posts

    Still amazing to me that those who are up in arms about Texas dropping the mandate seem to have zero qualms about the virtually unchecked swarms crossing the border.

    Of course, the illegals won't pay their own way either...just like some here.
     
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  10. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    It's all about optics? That makes sense.

     
    • WTF? WTF? x 1
  11. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    NJLonghorn, you are assuming all excess deaths are COVID. They aren't.

    Do you have any data showing excess deaths compared over the last several years?
     
  12. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    We can look at case studies or we can look at the actual time series plots of cases/deaths with the timing of mandates and lockdowns shown. One is an experiment. One is the actual data.

    Then compare country to country, state to state, city to city. Here's one comparing states with varying levels of restrictions. Can you tell the difference?

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Here is another.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Did masks help Germany?

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Remember this the next time you read about a case study, if they don't show you a wide time line.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    The Asian countries are doing well because they all wear masks.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Masks don't seem to shift the curves temporally. They seem to determine who got hit harder either.

     
  18. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    • Agree Agree x 1
  19. OUBubba

    OUBubba Reluctant and Bullied Sponsor

    You're aggressively anti mask. You're doing the Lord's work.
     
  20. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    US vaccination rate hit 2m yesterday. This is 7 day average, so no one-off situation. Biden has been president for 6 weeks. Give him all the credit.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  21. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Doing some math in my head. Min daily rate is 2.5m and max is 4m. Anything above 4m is ludicrous level from a mnfg or logistics point of view.

    At 4m daily, all 250m adults can be vaccinated by end of June (assuming 2 doses per person).

    At 2.5m daily and 100m J&J doses, then 250m adults vaccinated by end of July.
     
  22. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

  23. Sangre Naranjada

    Sangre Naranjada Winebibber

    New sig
     
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    • Funny Funny x 1
  24. AustinHorn24

    AustinHorn24 250+ Posts

    Nice work but don't bother. Posting actual studies on this thread is worthless because too many of the people here are uneducated clowns who won't read it anyways and will just say FAKE DATA and claim you are in league with Fauci to run a massive conspiracy to create fake corona deaths.
     
  25. bystander

    bystander 5,000+ Posts

  26. X Misn Tx

    X Misn Tx 2,500+ Posts

    i know the tendency is to only see the far side of the other's group of people.

    But I'm a guy who thinks Abbott was premature and that masks help, who is also a strong border guy.

    I'd say illegals in detention who test positive should stay there until they are out of quarantine as a public safety measure...wherever they go/are sent.

    I think there are plenty of people who have this same perspective. (Abbott was premature AND we should keep our citizens safe from sick illegals)
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  27. 4th_floor

    4th_floor Dude, where's my laptop?

    What's misleading about Monahans posts? I see a lot of data that generally supports my earlier assertion that masks are not proven effective against Covid-19.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  28. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Bubba?
    Are you ok with Biden releasing illegals with covid into the country?
     
  29. 4th_floor

    4th_floor Dude, where's my laptop?

    I guess we will know in a few months the effects of removing the mask mandate. I expect a small spike due to all the dumbasses who will rush out to the bars that reopen - similar to last summer. After about a month, I think the number of Covid cases will continue to decline. I don't expect much of a spike in deaths, if any. Most of the vulnerable population has already been vacinnated or has died.

    As for me, I think I will continue to use caution when I go shopping or out to a restaurant. But I plan on ditching the mask unless required by the business owner.
     
  30. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Municipal officials in Brownsville, Texas, say that six percent of migrants released into their community who are tested for COVID-19 are getting positive results. More than 100 tested positive since the releases began in late January.
    That is one city
    But Bubba abd NJ keep playing games with data cuz THAT is so much more important
     

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