One thing that jumps out at me right away after two games is this: I'm glad I didn't buy into the hype.
This team has all the makings of a group that could be really good in a year, or two, with more good recruiting. But what I'm seeing right now on offense is a starting QB that quite frankly is playing pretty OK for a sophomore, and is actually showing improvement in some areas. I'm seeing an o-line that's rounding into shape but still isn't where it needs to be in the run game. I'm seeing a decent running back group where a true freshman is clearly the best of the group. I'm seeing a solid group of receivers with some game-breaking capability. And basically that adds up to an offense that makes some plays, looks out of sorts at times, and is starting to develop some sort of identity.
On defense, this team looks like a group that hasn't recruited well on the d-line in almost a decade. That's causing solid linebackers to look mediocre at times, and while we're holding up OK in the straight-up run game against lower level talent, I don't see this team shutting down a good running game. We've got a secondary that has some guys who are extraordinarily talented and athletic, but is still making freshman mistakes because they're freshmen. But they're not getting help from upperclassmen who aren't as talented, and have some real limits on what they can do.
With another strong recruiting class, I like where we're going with talent, I'm just concerned that the bar is being raised by A&M and Oklahoma, and the longer this takes to get rolling, the farther we get from signing the 5-stars across the board that we need to get this program back.
I picked eight wins this year and they can still get that, and maybe even more if the switch really gets flipped. My HOPE (and yes, I know what some of you are going to say...) is that there are some things we're not putting out there on offense yet, particularly every time I watch Sam roll the pocket out on a two-man rout that effectively takes away about two-thirds of the field - and has been predictably ineffective.
What I like so far:
- We're being more stubborn with the run. This team definitely looks best when it's running between the tackles and opening cutback lanes, which ONE of our backs is really good at seeing, and another one occasionally is...
- When Sam decides to play hero ball - which we all know can't be what the offense is - he's still pretty good at all the things we liked about him last year.
- The receiver screen game is much improved now that Sam is starting to throw in front of his receiver and get him headed toward the line of scrimmage quicker (this was not happening against Maryland, it was against Tulsa, and LJH had a big game partly because of that.)
- Pass blocking has not been a liability to this point.
- Straight run defense has generally been pretty good except the stupid jet sweep.
What has to change:
- We have to have a plan for eight-man drops. My vote is quick hitches out of the backfield to Watson, more called QB draws, and oh yeah, stop getting in third and long so much... (Having said that... We did a much better job against it than we did against Maryland, but that's partly because Tulsa's defense sucks.)
- More wildcat with LJH.
- Sam has to stop holding the ball on the zone read and make a decision. The runs are taking WAY too long to develop and it's hanging his backs out to dry. Make a decision and go with it. Have a plan for what you're going to do if the end doesn't commit.
- (Related) - Never EVER EVER EVER call another zone read on a play where you need less than a yard, particularly inside the 5. It's stupid. It does not work except against really really bad defenses.
- Fix. The. Punt. Protection. Now.
- Brandon Jones needs to get back. We miss him terribly.
- (Assuming the above happens) Blitz. A lot. Our pass rush is absolutely abysmal right now and that has to change. Maybe that's just us playing base, vanilla defense and maybe not, but I'm not sure we've hit a QB with a four-man rush yet. At some point, we're going to have to trust the DBs to make plays back there, and they're having to do that anyway. Might as well at least give them a smaller window of time to have to defend.
- Ingram needs 20 touches a game.
- Watson should get at least three receptions a game.
- More tempo. PLEASE...
- This team has to figure out how to stay dialed in for an entire game.
I'm not sunshine pumping. This team is not as bad as people are saying. There's hope, and there's actual improvement that's getting obscured by some frustrating mistakes and lackadaisical/tight/inexperienced/unprepared/care-to-much mistakes (or whatever reason/excuse we're hearing this week.)
But those of you who point to a couple of NFL drafted upper classmen as proof that this team is "loaded with talent" are missing what I've seen at Texas as long as I've followed it. Texas will ALWAYS have a handful of really talented guys. You can't win with a handful of really talented guys. You need talent up and down the lineup, and we're not there yet with this group. Offensive line still needs an upgrade. QB still needs an upgrade (maybe with experience? Maybe with one of the young guys? Maybe RJ comes in next year and makes us forget VY? Who knows...) DL still needs an upgrade.
Herman will have one more year at least after this. He's not going anywhere. So let's see what he does with this and where it ends up at year's end.
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