General Presidential Campaign: Trump vs Hillary

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by mchammer, Jun 20, 2016.

  1. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Need a new thread as the Trump one is too long.

    To get this started, have you noticed a dearth of polling since Orlando? Post your guess of the spread in the polls that surely will come out in the next week. My guess: Clinton +3.
     
  2. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Real level polls or manipulated with anti Trump slant polls?
     
  3. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 5,000+ Posts

    LOL. The pollsters, the media, the Republican party establishment, Corey Lewendowski...who isn't against Trump in the minds of conspiracy theorists?
     
  4. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 5,000+ Posts

    Clinton +10 is my guess. Trump has had a very bad few weeks and his response to the Orlando Massacre isn't getting the expected bump. Heck, even the NRA came out yesterday saying it would have been a very bad idea to have a bunch of night club goers toting guns while drinking.
     
  5. Musburger1

    Musburger1 1,000+ Posts

    I'll throw out a wild prediction.
    If Trump gains the Republican nomination, Clinton will not be indicted.
    If the Reublican convention finds a way to supplant Trump, Hillary will be indicted.
     
  6. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Points for creativity.
     
  7. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 5,000+ Posts

    If Trump exits the Republican convention without the nomination the party will officially be dead. The Rep power brokers who don't support Trump would be cutting off their noses to spite their collective faces. They would emerge with a disintegrating party left to wander in the wilderness of politics for decades.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Monmouth poll: Clinton +7 with all L and G party candidates.
     
  9. Musburger1

    Musburger1 1,000+ Posts

    That was true a month ago, and probably true today. But there is still much time between now and the convention and Trump appears to be losing momentum. My prediction is a bit of a long shot, but nothing in politics shocks me now.
     
  10. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    Trump's campaign manager shitcanned. Link.
     
  11. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 5,000+ Posts

    Lewandowski deserves a lot of credit for Trump's primary success. Does this mean Manafort steps into the lead position as Campaign Manager?
     
  12. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    I'm sure he will, and frankly, that's probably a good thing for Trump. From what I can tell, Lewandowski was a ball-sniffer. He just told Trump to "be himself" and told him how great he is, which certainly was good in a GOP primary. However, I've heard Manafort interviewed several times, and he's much more of an insider and sounds like he advises Trump to be more conventional (meaning more like an adult). It won't be enough to get my vote, but it could make him a more serious general election candidate.
     
  13. huisache

    huisache 2,500+ Posts

    ........reminds me of when the gallant John Bell Hood of Texas was put in charge of routing Sherman.

    Despise Hillary and her hubby but watching this self immolation is going to be real enjoyable.
     
  14. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Latest state polls:

    OH: tied
    PA: +1 Clinton
    FL: +8 Clinton

    Some people in FL must not have liked Trump's response to the shooting.

    National: +4 Clinton
     
  15. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    Wow. Trump is in serious trouble. His campaign has almost no money, and much of what has been raised is being used to pay back Trump and his businesses. Link. I'm sure Trump has some big strategy ready like selling Trump steaks, vodka, and bottled water at campaign rallies in order to raise cash, but there's a good chance this won't work.

    I said earlier that the GOP shouldn't dump Trump or pull any shenanigans at the convention because it would cause even bigger problems. I was wrong. He's in much worse shape than I thought he'd be in, and it's time to cut bait. He is a full blown embarrassment at this point.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  16. Hollandtx

    Hollandtx 250+ Posts

    Agree. It is time for a Republican coup. I never thought I would say this, but I don't see the GOP surviving long with Trump, no matter what. Many that support him aren't true Republicans, but are fringe, first time voters. I don't think they will be around for any future elections, in fact, I think lots of them are just here for the entertainment and an opportunity to vent.

    My only issue is, who to choose as an alternative? Certainly not Mitt, any Graham, or some of the names I have heard bandied about.
    I would be all in with a Kasich nom, at one point he was the only candidate that beat HC in the polls.
    The Republican party I grew up with is on life support, or brain dead. If it takes creating a new party, so be it.

    I'm also a bit worried with the new hacked info. Is there a chance that HC will be booted in favor of Biden? I think Biden would win with a large margin.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  17. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    Without a serious GOTV operation, a significant number won't even turn out for this election. Furthermore, motivating them makes a candidate toxic in a general election. No point in appealing to them.

    Unfortunately, if the delegates dump Trump, they'll probably go with Cruz. He has a lot of committed delegates, and even a lot of Trump delegates are ideological conservatives who like Cruz and would vote for him if not bound by rule to Trump. He certainly wouldn't be my choice, but I could at least vote for him out of nausea with Clinton.

    If they weren't willing to dump Hillary with what is already known, then I don't see them doing it now. They're in the tank for her regardless of the circumstances at least with Trump as her opponent. Could that change if the GOP dumps Trump? Hard to say.
     
  18. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    You are being a tool of the media. Trump campaign didn't start fundraising until May 25. He supposedly raised $15MM since then. Trump was still in primary mode for most of May.
     
  19. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    Put the Trump spin on it all you like. The point is that he's miles behind Hillary (even though he has been in "general election mode" for longer), and she's beating the living hell out of him, while he's saying he's not really going to start until after the convention. Furthermore, considering that he's using a lot of his campaign money to reimburse Trump entities, I'm doubtful that he'll really self-fund to a meaningful extent. Self-funders pay themselves back after the election, if at all.

    The bottom line is that if you've got the $200 to buy some frozen Trump steaks, you better do it soon. He needs the money. In fact, now I'm not so sure that Lewandowski got fired. His paycheck may have just bounced.
     
  20. huisache

    huisache 2,500+ Posts

    Trump is greatness. Think of the possibilities; Sarah Palin as Sec of State----she can see Russia from Alaska you know. Newt for Veep, he has a Ph.D from somewhere in history and knows everything---ask him.

    Treasury Secretary should be one of the gold shills.

    Bobcat Goldthwait should be Press Secretary, at least until he gets the Rhett Butler role in the remake of Gone With the Wind.

    Mel Gibson has to go in there somewhere.

    This is so wonderful and just paves the way for Oprah in 2020, don't you see?

    The comic potential here is just amazing.

    Pray for a country which can choose between this Geek and Nixon in a Pantsuit. We are skrewed
     
    • Like Like x 1
  21. Htown77

    Htown77 2,500+ Posts

    ^ I would take Newt over Trump or Clinton.
     
  22. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Considering you've been so accurate this election season...

    Latest poll: +4 Clinton. Trump running ahead of Romney in many swing states such as OH and PA. WHAT A DISASTER!
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2016
  23. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 5,000+ Posts

    Isn't that the problem? He waited so long to raise money and now is playing perpetual catch-up with skeptical Republican donors. His "be quiet" to the Republican leaders who were mouthing what the donor class is thinking based on reports can't help his fundraising efforts.
     
  24. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 5,000+ Posts

    Remember, the Republicans walked into this election with a built-in advantage with an electorate that wanted something different and a "D" candidate that was toxic. Now you're celebrating being close heading into the convention?
     
  25. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Your comments are far more calibrated than Mr Deez.
     
  26. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

  27. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 5,000+ Posts

    Really?

    Uhh...isn't Donald Trump referencing himself? This is what's laughable about the Trump stump speech. To paraphrase it "I've been part of rigging the system to make a lot of money for me and my children including outsourcing my products being made but only I can fix it."

    I read through half of the speech to see what Trump's ideas were. The speech included lots of rhetoric about raising up the middle class, bringing jobs back to America from offshoring and making America great again. I can support all those ideas. Now tell me how...(silence)...(silence)...(silence)...not a single idea on how to do that. Like the majority of HRC's speeches. This wasn't a "vote for me" but rather "I'm not HRC" speech. In turn, I'll put that in the garbage pile, pablum for his supporters but no meat to convince anyone to vote for him.
     
  28. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Wait until his tax plan for a reason to vote for him. In June, it's about your opponent. The Dems have perfected this.
     
  29. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    What prediction are you referring to?

    A few things. First, that's a generous poll. The RCP average is not as kind to Trump. Second, in case you didn't notice, he's not running against Romney. Third, he's losing to Clinton (his actual opponent) in every swing state except Georgia and North Carolina, which aren't supposed to be swing states. Finally, if you want to make the irrelevant comparison to Romney, Trump has virtually no campaign and no money. Accordingly, he's much less likely to improve his standing as much as Romney did. Romney had the ability to answer the attacks and make some of his own. Trump does not.
     
  30. mchammer

    mchammer 2,500+ Posts

    Really? What was Romney's response to the dog on roof of car and the charge by Reid he paid no taxes for 10 years? See Trumps's speech today for a real counter-attack.
     

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