How bad is this economy going to get?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by AustinHorn24, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    JF
    We ALL know that pick ups are being bought by right wingers to kill innocent peaceful protestors
     
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  2. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    I can believe 34% after sitting in on a Q2 business review. We out performed the general economy but the picture wasn't good.
     
  3. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Light Truck Sales doesn't really provide relevant data on the economy. Respirator mask sales are at all time highs too, but the economy still stinks.
     
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  4. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    [​IMG][/QUOTE]
    Relative to cars, light truck sales have outperformed. But what the above graph doesn't tell you is that both car sales and light track sales have fallen off a cliff. Its just that car sales fell much further. In the period Jan-April, car sales fell 60% and light trucks fell only 30%.

    If I were purchasing a vehicle now, first of all, fuel costs are low. Secondly, many people are driving less for one reason or another (working at home, less travel, etc) so fuel costs aren't a major concern to them. Given a choice, I would rather have own a truck than a car.

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2020.05.29/main.svg

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    I35, I recognize the good things Trump did. There are positive factors. I would call them significant but minor.

    The trade deals he made were okay. Not sure they were big improvements on what we already had. He pulled out of the TPP at the start of his term. There may have been good reasons to do it, but it reduced the amount of trade possible in the last 3 years. Then he has hurt trade with China. So far from an economic standpoint that has hurt the economy too.

    He improved things over Obama no question. There is so much Swamp to drain though to get to meaningful system changes.

    I will say he recently nominated Julie (Judy?) Shelton to the Fed board. She is as good as you will get these days. We need more like her and even better on monetary policy, dollar stability, supply stability, etc.

    Trump just lead the printing of what was it $1T or $2T in new dollars. That is a horrible thing to do and will make any recovery slow. Now he is talking about wanting more "stimulus". That will erase any growth for a decade, much like 2009-2017 but worse.
     
  6. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    The stock market endorses the above.
     
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  7. AC

    AC 1,000+ Posts

     
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  8. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    2020’s worst-performing industries YTD:

    Dept stores -63%
    Airlines -55%
    Travel -51.%
    Oil&Gas -51%
    Resorts & Casinos -45%
     
  9. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Phil, you were correct. The 34% is annualized. The actual Q2 was -9.5% for the US.
     
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  10. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Fortunately, we are having a very good year of crop production.
     
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  11. Phil Elliott

    Phil Elliott 2,500+ Posts

    I've heard that -34% number parroted by local radio and TV news people and not one used the word "annualized". "Journalists" are so incurious anymore. They just wanna make Trump look bad so they don't question anything that is negative towards him and the economy.
     
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  12. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    PE
    If you had not explsined it I would not have known.
     
  13. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Unemployment now “improved to 10%”. We are in regular recession mode now. If more states open up due to falling cases, we will be at 6% unemployment by end of year.
     
  14. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Fixed it Phil.
     
  15. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    41% of all privately owned businesses in Maine have filed for bankruptcy
     
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  16. I35

    I35 5,000+ Posts

    Yep! Confidence in the economy is the biggest driver for the Market.
     
  17. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Confidence in money printing is the driver for the Market.
     
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  18. I35

    I35 5,000+ Posts

    As an investor myself I don’t base my decision on buying or selling stock if money will be printed or not. I look directly at the economy.
     
  19. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    And currently money printing = economy. If you take away the hundreds of billions printed (electronically) since the pandemic, consumption disappears, rent payments don’t get paid, more businesses close or fail to reopen. Any positives in the economy at present is correlated to massive deficit spending. That’s a fact.
     
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  20. I35

    I35 5,000+ Posts

    We are talking about two different things here. My comment was what Trump was accomplishing before the chaos started. You are talking about things that are temporary like the virus and if this was a discussion back in 2001 it would be 911. But we can never not invest because something crazy like 911 or a virus shutting down the country might happen. So you are right about the printing of money. But I got a feeling if Trump’s economy was horrible then there wouldn’t have been a need for a virus panic.

    We’ve been printing money for years. That’s just something I don’t put a lot of thought when i’m investing right now. My point is investors don’t weigh if money is being printed or not when buying or selling stocks.

    I stand by my original point that confidence or lack of in the economy reflects the market going up or down. Example every election when the President is chosen the market in the next couple of days make drastic changes one way or other. The last couple of years of Obama’s Presidency the market had stalled although rising, but at a very minimal pace. We were printing money then and that hadn’t changed. The Market had a big boost up following the election of Trump. That’s because investors had confidence that a business man would boost the economy. You can’t deny that people invest or not invest on confidence or fear. Remember after 911? The market was working its way back slowly and then the Terrorist hit Spain with the train bombings and people Even in the US bailed. That had nothing to do with money being printed.
     
  21. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

     
  22. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    I almost think we’ve got a chicken vs egg debate here. Yes, confidence and fear drive investor sentiment which in turn move markets up or down. After each fear driven crash you described (9-11, Covid-19, etc). The response is always the same; increased federal spending and lower interest rates to get the debt machine humming.

    None of this money printing with impunity would be possible If the dollar wasn’t the global reserve currency. It’s the demand for dollars which allows the US to print, which makes globalism (printing dollars for goods) possible.

    The system where the US dollar defines trade is being challenged by Russia, China, and the many smaller economies that trade with them. We fight them with diplomacy (bribing public officials), sanctions, color revolutions, and military might. We also hold together our allies with the same tools.

    As far Trump, on the one hand he’s enacted policies to overturn globalism, hoping to sever the dependent relationship with China and bring back jobs to the US. On the other hand, the harsh tools used to enforce and maintain dollar supremacy are being met with opposition now that both China and Russia are strong enough to fight back. Trump may reside over the end of globalism, but might well be at the cost of eventually seeing the end of the dollar as reserve currency.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
  23. matt8209

    matt8209 100+ Posts

    grab a couple ar15s for protection, and buy a few bitcoin before the new bullish institution goldman sachs finsihes the hoax of lying their asses off to their clients while they have been buying like crazy. look at todays article. real time ********.
     
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  24. mb227

    mb227 2,500+ Posts

    The unemployment number that ABC called a "slight" improvement was a month over month move from 11.1% to 10.2% -last I checked, an almost 10% decrease is NOT slight. Just further indicia of how much the mainstream media hates DJT.
     
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  25. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    No, that's not a fact. I own a business that hasn't missed a beat and doesn't deal with entities that received any money due to the pandemnic. You act as if the money existing in the economy before the pandemic just disappeared, which it didn't.
     
  26. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    62537FFD-6EE2-4322-B5F2-6088033D96F3.jpeg
     
  27. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

     
  28. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Maybe your business didn’t receive any
    maybe your business doesn’t directly deal with entities that received money due to the pandemic, but that doesn’t exclude the probability that those businesses you deal with might have received revenue from sources that did. Somewhere down the line income was handed out from the government and eventually found its way to your business. Maybe not directly or even second hand, but if you could trace revenue sources like a family tree, there would be “stimulus and unemployment payments” in there somewhere. And certainly that’s true for owners of restaurants, car dealerships and landlords. To deny that hundreds of billions in printed money Handed out hasn’t made a significant impact to goose consumption is just ignorant.
     
  29. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Well now
    "The better than expected jobs gains in July boosted black employment in the United States by more than it boosted white employment. As well, the black-white gap in unemployment is at a historic low.

    The number of black Americans holding jobs in the United States rose 1.4 percent in July, according to data released by the Department of Labor Friday. That bested the 0.6 percent gain for white Americans and 0.7 percent gain for Hispanic Americans. The biggest jobs gains went to Asian Americans, who saw total employment rise by 5.1 percent."Black Employment Rose Faster than White Employment in July, Black-White Jobless Gap at Historic Low
     
  30. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    To deny that money supply existing prior to the pandemic didn't have a greater impact than that injected after the pandemic is ignorant. The factor is about 18:1 in favor of my point.
     

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