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Discussion in 'On The Field' started by Handler, Mar 23, 2020.
Imagine if half the team is infected for 2 weeks.
50-60% of the deaths are from nursing homes. Practice social distancing and let the games go on.
The school will be open to classes. Only question is whether people will be on campus and to what degree will classes be attended in person.
glimmer of hope ...
"Texas AD Chris Del Conte informed the Longhorns that there “will be a football season” even if it starts later than the current college football schedule."
Texas to announce fall plans by end of June ...
UT officials target late-June to announce fall semester plans
aggy to reopen all campuses for the fall semester and "be ready for football.”
Just stupid to open places where deaths and infection rates have not declined for a minimum of two weeks. Better a month or 6 weeks with widely available anti-body testing and contact tracing in place. Pretty much guarantees there will be a second spike in the Fall or by Winter in both the rates and everything goes to hell even worse than now. Then you can kiss Spring and Summer sports goodbye, again.
Look at WA state which was so bad in the beginning before they let the medical experts take over. Now they have contained the spread well. Then look at NY where they delayed before following the medical experts. They are still fighting the spread but are slowing it.
Lastly look at the world and the results where nations acted very early and followed medical expert's advice and those who waited or have politicians who fought with the medical experts. The results were decisive based on early actions or inactions, unfortunately the latter in most cases. Infection rates do not lie, but some nations continue to lie about the true infection rate impact.
umm ... its a plan not even decided upon till end of june ...
“Our goal remains to reopen the Forty Acres in the fall, likely with some courses and activities held in person and others online as dictated by health and safety concerns. But to get there, we still have a great deal of planning to do, and we must first assess and address a range of risks and solutions.
I was referring more to the state wide openings which the politicians are pursuing so prematurely. Being at a short term plateau in new infections and deaths is good sign but not a signal that worse outcomes are not possible in the immediate future if isolation or precautions are lifted. Declines in both categories have to be measurable for at least a couple of weeks before gradual openings can be implemented. In Texas, the rate of increase of infections and deaths has declined, but the absolute numbers themselves are still increasing. We are not at the plateau yet but are merely approaching it. We are most definitely in decline.
Also, local population statistics need to be considered. If you are on a ranch in Starr County, it might be OK to shout at your neighbor near the fenceline. If you are in a big metropolitan area, it is not time to go out clubbing. go to church, school or any large close together gathering. In both of these situations, there must first be sufficiently reliable and accurate antibody testing. Secondly, there must be a system in place for rapid and effective contact tracing and following testing.
If UT in particular were an isolated population, then controls could be more effective. But it is not and is therefore affected by the health of the larger population in which it is embedded. There needs to be the testing, contact tracing and ultimately more effective therapies and a vaccine to reopen completely with some heightened precautions. No one in the USA is quite there yet.
The UW mapping of when states could have a safe gradual reopening of each state had Texas at June 17 last week. This week it was June 21. So as a population, we are doing better but are still in need of improvement. To have any successful recovery, we need to maintain lives into that recovery. Replacing the ones we have already lost is impossible but minimizing future losses must be the primary goal for a successful future recovery. Trust the epidemiologists, not the politicians on this one. That is how WA state went from the most initially impacted state to one of the most controlled states. And even they are just very slightly opening up now.
There is some chatter that the virus sort of disappears after mid-June. Seems like they are waiting to see what happens.
The models used for "mapping " are slightly better than a wild *** guess. But you are free to continue your quarantine until you feel safe.
Models produce data points - not answers. I work with them daily, and they are a wild a$$ guess backed by math and some science. As such, their results are a good starting point, but far from a decision-making endpoint.
This chatter is coming from ******** artists.
The experts have already said this virus is going nowhere.
It will most likely become seasonal like the flu.
We will deal with it until we get a vaccine.
I believe it was SARS that just disappeared so people want to latch onto that.
This isn't SARS.
Coronavirus in Texas: State sees highest single-day death toll from COVID-19
Most deaths in a day to date
3rd highest new cases to date
some of you mofos are not social distancing.
i actually think we do need to open up the economy, but i don't understand why we can't require masks/social distancing. please don't respond about effectiveness of masks in breathing in covid-19. that's not the science anymore. if everyone used masks, rates would go down because more of your nasty spit would be blocked by your masks. my mask won't keep me from getting your nasty. but it will block a bunch of my nasty from going into the air. and if everyone is blocking most of their nasty, it's better for everyone.
i'm both sides of the aisle on this. don't open the economy, then ask nicely for people to wear masks and social distance. get money flowing, but be cautious with human lives.
What needs to Happen to Restart College Football per the NCAA
NCAA unveils 'core principles' required to return college sports
Lots of valid data points produce valid histories and good projections of future growth trends. Human behavior is the great uncontrolled variable in these models.
Check out Singapore for a more definitive answer.
Unfortunately no; because human behavior over a is the only set can be reproduced. Climatic and other conditions cannot.
Interesting to see recent debate over Sweden, Japan, S Korea et al and similar, non-lockdown, countries approach to CCP. Alot of future debate will revolve around comparing and contrasting various countries' handling of the virus. I don't put much stock in WHO at all, but they have now changed their judgement of these countries apparently and it is at least being debated now which is/was the better approach. I'm guessing the truth lies somewhere in the middle. These countries and quite a few health officials (and my very educated and talented, health and medically-trained wife) believe strongly that this virus will make it's way through our society one way or another and it won't make much difference whether it is now or later. This is the debate now and why some are speaking favorably of these other approaches...even some who, a few weeks ago, were supporting very stringent and total lockdowns.
I advocate a nuanced approach...not all or nothing, one size fits all, for the record.
Rain, I tend to agree with your analysis. The three countries you mentioned all have universal health care that provides diminishing healthcare the older you get. I would add that South Korea is only slightly better than North Korea on the truthfulness meter; Japan, where you see sick people wearing masks on the street regularly, is struggling and may not be counting on the same basis as the US; and Sweden does not have a population density that would support mass spread [not to mention the work week there is 35 hours (including lunchtime) with rare overtime so the likelihood of infection is low].
My wife and I both are skeptical about the reporting process in Dallas County, but to be safe we have already decided not to venture anywhere approaching normal until June. The issue is while the reported cases are increasing, the percentage of the population being tested is going up faster than the number of reported cases. So by one measure, Dallas County is getting worse, but by another reported measure it is getting better.
Finally, we can still hear that sucking sound from the north, and Herman is struggling with recruiting in North Texas.
Interesting read from couple of days ago...
Big 12 commish updates college football's return timetable
Start sooner rather than later?
thanks for sharing ...
I heard the SEC commish say on the radio that one possible scenario is that if safe to do so in the SEC footprint and not elsewhere, the SEC will not wait ...
in this scenario, would we have conference play without a playoff? maybe bowl season pre BCS?
SEC champ automatically the natty champ?
What was being discussed was that some areas of the country are going to be ready to play on schedule in September, but not so in areas of the ACC, B1G, and PAC-12. In that case, the NCAA is thinking about letting schools in the "safe areas" play and not letting the non-safe area schools play. The $EC probably would be intact: Northwestern, aOSU, Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois would not play in the B1G; the Big 12 might lose WVa; the ACC would lose everyone north of UVa; but the PAC-12 would be decimated with the California schools (at least USC and UCLA) and Washington schools not playing. As far as the Independents, ND would be a no go, but BYU would be able to play. As you can imagine there is a lack of momentum for this type of plan right now, but the closer to 01 July, the tighter everyone sphincter is going to be.
The article I read said this was one of several ideas. The main thing to come out of the article is the NCAA is determined to play football sometime during the 2020-2021 school year. Another issue up for discussion is what happens when one player tests positive? Does that school have to sit out (no practice) for 14 days and if after that time is the school eligible to pick-up its schedule or once a positive test that school is out for the remainder of the season? Finally, different groups are studying the other fall and winter sports. Right now they are crossing everything that can be crossed that there will be a vaccine out by the time to at least play the conference schedules of the spring sports.
So you say add another wing to the aggy hall of champions bldg, JF??!
ags get Alabama and LSU as their last two games this season. So the likely scenario is they are 10-0 (a very high probably with that high school/JUCO schedule of theirs) and somehow report a positive case during the week leading up to the Alabama game. So they are out at least until the week of the CCG. Jumbo starts yelling that aggy is the rightful S$C West Champ since they are undefeated. When that effort falls on its face all aggies start boasting about their "undefeated season" (sort of like State Penn in 1969).
All models are wrong, some are useful
Open up. I believe strongly in the herd immunity aspect. Things would have looked bad at first but by protecting the vulnerable and allowing the workforce to continue would have produced better results then what we’ve experienced. IMO