More conference realignment speculation

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by Irish Horn, Dec 8, 2018.

  1. X Misn Tx

    X Misn Tx 2,500+ Posts

    i disagree. top/big school teams that suck would put their coaches on the hot seat so fast if they risked relegation. middle teams that made a great coaching hire (ala Baylor or Tech) that performed great will earn their way up, whereas if their coach leaves and they go back to mediocrity risk going down to the 2nd tier conference.

    you wouldn't have to lock schools out (and risk the lawsuits).

    If I used Sagarin Ratings...

    Ranking Team Conference
    Division 1
    6 Oregon A = 93.65 PAC-12-N 1
    7 Oklahoma A = 93.37 BIG 12 2
    15 Texas A = 86.53 BIG 12 3
    16 Baylor A = 86.22 BIG 12 4
    17 Washington A = 86.13 PAC-12-N 5
    20 Utah A = 83.82 PAC-12-S 6
    22 Oklahoma State A = 81.39 BIG 12 7
    26 Southern California A = 80.73 PAC-12-S 8
    27 Kansas State A = 80.60 BIG 12 9 go down
    28 Iowa State A = 80.25 BIG 12 10 go down
    37 Arizona State A = 76.97 PAC-12-S 11 go down
    38 TCU A = 76.42 BIG 12 12 go down
    Division 2
    41 California A = 75.82 PAC-12-N 13 go up
    46 Washington State A = 74.18 PAC-12-N 14 go up
    52 Texas Tech A = 72.23 BIG 12 15 go up
    53 West Virginia A = 72.21 BIG 12 16 go up
    57 Oregon State A = 71.44 PAC-12-N 17
    61 UCLA A = 69.92 PAC-12-S 18
    63 Colorado A = 69.75 PAC-12-S 19
    73 Stanford A = 67.76 PAC-12-N 20
    83 Arizona A = 64.94 PAC-12-S 21
    85 Kansas A = 64.04 BIG 12 22

    you could negotiate a huge TV contract and Div 1 teams get 1.2 shares and Div 2 teams get .8 shares.

    that would be very motivating to compete at a high level. teams that go up and down average out at 1 share. Div 1 teams that stay there get a bigger portion based on performance.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    As cool as that is, I don't think member schools outside of Texas, OU, USC, and maybe like Oregon and Washington would ever agree to it. Stanford has the potential to be a division champ some years, but not others. There's no way they're signing off on lower revenues, or the risk thereof. UCLA brings a lot of viewership into deals.

    The risk of moving up/down means they can't budget adequately year to year if they're one of those bubble teams. I'm all for the relegation thing; I just don't think it can be tied to money. Just competition level.
     
  3. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    Just an opinion, but I doubt that any conference is willing to give up existing TV money in order to add tougher teams to the schedule of Conf and OOC games while decreasing the number of easy wins in their own conference. Conferences will not give up control of TV contracts to NCAA like Basketball has.
     
  4. LonghornDave

    LonghornDave 1,000+ Posts

    With this lineup we would have been division 2, 2 of the last 6 years.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
  5. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    PAC-12 might. They are in a serious revenue rut with bad conference TV rights contracts.
     
  6. LonghornDave

    LonghornDave 1,000+ Posts

    I hope somehow someone can work this out. I kind of think the conference model does not work and ultimately payment will be made per game to the participants. Seems unfair that some teams are paid the same amount as the other members for losing games in conference and beating unknown teams out of conference.
     
  7. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    If the P12 has a few schools willing to move they will have to find a conference willing to take them and dilute the TV contract for that conference for each member.
     
  8. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    I think we're just back to the thing that would have been the main option 9 years ago. Add Texas, OU, OK State, and swap what would have been A&M for Tech. Pac-16. Disney pays out the remainder of the LHN contract in order to bail on it and then buys the TV rights for the new conference. It goes way up from the "diluted" version that they currently have, thanks to the excitement generated not just by Texas/OU, but also new basketball rivalries, chances for the third tier rights at nonrevenue sports like baseball, etc.

    I think you do two divisions:
    South/East
    Texas
    Tech
    OU
    OK State
    Arizona
    AZ State
    Colorado
    Utah

    North/West
    USC
    UCLA
    Cal
    Stanford
    Washington
    Washington St
    Oregon
    Oregon St

    Play the 7 teams in your division every year plus alternate home-and-homes with 2 from the other division. Championship doesn't necessarily need to stay in Santa Clara, but the new LA stadium wouldn't exactly be fair for the "East" division team either. Maybe Empower/Mile High or alternate the site based on division tie-ins. Whenever the "West" division hosts, they could put it at Santa Clara, LA, Seattle, etc. And when the "East" division hosts, they could put it at Arlington, Denver, Glendale, etc.

    As for the old Big XII minus 6? I think they'll find homes. B1G could get ISU and/or the Kansas schools. Maybe even WVU if they didn't go ACC. The Texas schools would be the ones out in the cold... TCU would try to package themselves as a +1 if one of the other Power-5 came a knockin' for Kansas (basketball) or WVU (most sports). Baylor is SOL. Probably AAC for them.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  9. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    To be fair the lack of TV money is self-inflicted by the way they developed the PAC-12 Networks without a stable TV partner.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  10. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

  11. Statalyzer

    Statalyzer 10,000+ Posts

    They don't already?
     
  12. X Misn Tx

    X Misn Tx 2,500+ Posts

    prolly right.

    and i'm not advocating for it. just read the earlier post and created a D1/D2 model.
     
  13. LonghornDave

    LonghornDave 1,000+ Posts

  14. LonghornDave

    LonghornDave 1,000+ Posts

    That one is easy. Budget for a B share.
     
  15. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    RJ Young knows:

     
  16. LonghornDave

    LonghornDave 1,000+ Posts

    Good points. Makes me glad we did not join PAC. Big 12 not ideal but we should be able to qualify for Top 4 for the time being.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  17. Austin_Bill

    Austin_Bill 2,500+ Posts

    A better deal will be to destroy both the Big 12 and Pac 12 and form a single conference. Let the crap schools find their own way. I think between 22 teams we can find 12 good schools to make up the New conference.

    I ask, no Colorado, no FeCal, no ISU, KSU, WSU, OSU, TCU, and No BU.

    I'd take Washington, Oregon, USC, Utah, AUS and UA. In the Big 12 I'd take Texas, blowu, Okie Lite, KU, Tech and find a 6th school like Nebraska, or Arkansas.
     
    • Disagree Disagree x 5
  18. longhorn47

    longhorn47 250+ Posts

    If you're only talking about football, these are ok, but if you're talking about a conference for all sports, then Stanford (WBB, baseball, softball, volleyball) needs to be considered.
     
    • Agree Agree x 7
  19. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    Not to mention academics. Get the private schools and the pick of the litter will follow. ND would also be attracted to a conference with USC, Stanford, Texas and OU.
     
  20. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    ND isn't going to affiliate with any conference for football until the CFP forces them to in order to be eligible for playoff consideration.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  21. X Misn Tx

    X Misn Tx 2,500+ Posts

    stanford has lots of good sports
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  22. LonghornDave

    LonghornDave 1,000+ Posts

    Agree but would like Arkie and Nebraska or
    I tend to agree BUT I think the virus will hasten the death of the NCAA in football. NCAA may still have some oversight for all other sports but with doubts about fall football and the political entanglements that will be front and center, the football elite have a chance for real and meaningful change. ESPN/Disney being wounded, is an added twist. Safe travel is another twist. The question is who will/can take the lead? AD at Pac and Big are proven failures and SEC has succeeded on arrogance and smoke and mirrors (and good football). ACC is still basketball centric and then there is Bowlesby. probably need to start over.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  23. BurntOrangeLH

    BurntOrangeLH 2,500+ Posts

    True, but the question then will be where do they want to be? USC, Stanford and Texas are compelling and attractive foes, historically. The first three and ND are good schools, also.
     
  24. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    Notre Dame already has USC and Stanford on their schedule.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  25. LonghornDave

    LonghornDave 1,000+ Posts

    Agree but Houston > Arlington or Glendale and better food than Denver.
     
  26. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    I'm fine with Houston hosting a CCG if it came to that. I think college teams enjoy AT&T Stadium's "grandeur," if you can call it that. Those early season kickoff games with Alabama or whoever always generate a lot of buzz.

    I'd also appreciate road trips to Boulder (even though the fans suck, Colorado is pretty and I have family nearby), SLC, and Tempe. I like Tucson, but Tucson is kind of a ***** to get to... only one flight per day from DFW. Looks like Bush has two per day that go there, and Austin only has connecting flights. But I guess we'd only be going there every other year, so... still easier than WVU or ISU.

    There'd obviously be a lot more energy going to somewhere like Autzen Stadium or back to USC than our divisional games. Corvallis is pretty but desolate. At least Pullman gets flights and you don't have to drive from Spokane or anything.
     
  27. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    Two problems with the Pac16 discussion are the current problem with the Pac12. With the conference located in Mountain and Pacific time zones to compete with 11am, 2:30pm and 7 pm primetime CST with games from SEC, ACC, B1G and B12 you will have to have 9am, 12:30 pm and 5 pm kickoffs to compete for the TV viewers. People have a preference to watch the best teams at the most convenient times.
    The second problem is Disney already has the B12 access and bought out the FOX so they will no inclination to buy out anything when they already have the contracts.
    The TV dollars will control the decision process and no conference wants to decrease their $$$ and TV viewership because most of their conference is located in Pacific and Mountain geography.
    We will have to wait until GOR expiration 2032? for new TV contracts as the cord cutting and streaming realities will negatively impact the distribution of the live sports to the viewers.
     
  28. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Pecos, Disney did not get any of the Fox sports networks. Fox Sports (FoxSports 1 and 2 and the streaming Fox Sports) stayed with Fox and the regional Fox networks (except the Yankees Channel which the Yankees bought) were bought by Sinclair Broadcasting. The concern in the industry is Sinclair hasn't done anything (not even renaming) with Fox Regionals since buying them.

    Like any other contract in the free world, the GOR can be changed or terminated if all parties to the contracts so desire.
     
  29. PecosBill

    PecosBill 500+ Posts

    Viper what I was talking about is the position that FOX has going forward after the sale of the FOX TV assets and splitting up the company. Correct FOX Sports networks are still intact and the regional networks went with Sinclair are no longer have the footprint with tier 3 TV rights in CFB. Sinclair has no funds to compete in CFB.

    FOX had the chance to bid on the new 2022 SEC rights that were with CBS and probably the premium content available in CFB. CBS bid $55M and ESPN(Disney) bid $311M+ indicating how much value the balance of the SEC TV rights were to ESPN/ABC/Disney. FOX had the same opportunity to bid as ESPN and CBS but chose not to make an effort.

    FOX and ESPN had alternating rights for presenting TXOU and FOX chose to sell their remaining term to ESPN.

    FOX pre sale was a major player in all sports and trying to control a bigger piece of the lucrative live content preferred by viewers. FOX post sale now has new strategy and has backed away from CFB assets like 3rd tier or sold the assets and contracts.

    You are correct that Disney did not purchase FOX CFB assets in the FOX sale but they chose not to compete with Disney/ABC/ESPN/Streaming going forward and have taken a different direction since the sale.

    How this impacts the future of CFB TV rights will depend on who chooses to bid on the contracts. So far FOX has stepped away from CFB and headed toward MLB and NFL.

    As far as the GOR and the B12 TV rights is concerned the B12 owns the CFB rights to 2032, the B12 schools are under contract to provide the content and the companies that pay for those rights are getting fewer and less CFB footprint other than Disney. The B12 will be less likely to give up its biggest asset it if is not a player in some future conference realignment configuration. Disney does not need to pay more for what it already controls.
     
  30. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    I hear what you are saying about the GOR, but the chances that the current Grants hold until 2035 are very small. There will be reorganization before then and the surviving conferences will play all networks off each other.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2

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