Handicapping this game is tough. Home game, TH factor. One healthy RB, DB's were suspect at times vs. LT.... my confidence is marginal after viewing one game. Hope I'm wrong and I'm dining on a BIG plate of crow next Sunday, but my gut is telling me: Tiggers 28 Horns 24.
Tom Herman coached teams are 13-2-1 (10 straight up wins) as underdogs against spread. 8-2-1 while at UT. His teams DO NOT get blown out and favorites struggle to win and almost never cover. TH coached teams have won outright by an average of 12.14 in 10 victories over favorites and lost by an average of 5 in 4 losses to favorites. Should be close regardless of who wins.
I approach this prediction with minimal confidence. Hard to make judgments from the season opener for either team - both were slightly sloppy in some areas and need to improve quickly before the big game Saturday. I don't like the RB situation for Texas, and the defense has to tighten up pass coverage and tackling - but I have confidence that the staff will address those issues. My gut feel - home field advantage in a tight game. Texas 35 LSU 31
With rain lacking in the Austin forecast and the game being slated for 6:30p, the heat (and to a lesser extent, humidity) won't be a big factor. Weather this time of year is not substantially different between the two schools. Conditioning will still be a variable, as we have already seen the hydration card played by one P5 program (Taggart raised it yesterday). Defense has to quit trying to arm tackle and quit tacking air. And we damned sure better not see someone celebrating a hit where the receiver catches the ball and gets another ten yards (or more). If a player does that again, they should drop to the bottom of the depth chart. They are going to be looking at the number of times LSU put the ball in the air last week and too many looking to showboat will inevitably blow some plays as they have images of a pick-6 dancing in their sleep. LSU is now up to a four-point favorite. I don't think that is realistic as is the fact that the line keeps going up. Herman-coached teams traditionally do well as a dog as has been noted time and again. I like the fact that Texas covered against La Tech given that Texas sometimes lets the foot off the throat in games like that. So...with that being said...I see this as... Texas- 24 LSU- 23 Difference in the game will be a field goal by Dicker the Kicker in the last three minutes of the game. LSU will still have time to work with, but not enough to get inside of the 30 (which would be needed for their kicker to have a realistic shot at a winner with zeroes on the clock).
Man!! I wish I could go to this game. Hopefully the fans play a big role in causing kitties to screw up and inspire the Longhorns. Both defenses will bend but not break so lots of field goals. Hopefully Texas has one more from Dicker the Kicker and wins. Texas 26 LSU 23
Run, I dont necessarily disagree with the sentiment in your post...and LSU has alot of talent, but do you think TH's UH team had anywhere close to the talent level of OU when they they slapped them down?
31-24 Horns. This goes deep into 4th Qtr....we’ll have panic attacks for 3+ hrs until D comes up with a stop/turnover & Sam takes a few knees to run out the last 60 seconds. Of course, if I’m wrong, I’ll deny this prediction!
Actually...YES. UH had some bosses on offense that gave OU's defense fits. They had enough speed on defense to handle OU's offense. They easily matched OU point for point. We do not match up well with LSU in the trenches, and our secondary has some question marks, judging from the La Tech game. Our strength ( WRs) unfortunately is matched with LSU's strength in the secondary. Our rebuilt OL has to go against a massive and quick LSU front. Not sure our offense can keep pace if our defense can't slow down that hurry up offense LSU now uses. IF our defense steps up, I think we have enough offense to win the game. Very much like the Sugar Bowl win.....tee the bad boy up and lets see what happens !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can only compare the mean of 2 teams, not something outside of the control limit on the top side vs something else outside of the control limit on the bottom side. Sure, those may happen, but it certainly isn't the norm. And OU got beat by UH because they had no defense.
I do not disagree with either of you; but I am suggesting that these occurrences are not necessarily outliers with TH coached teams. I just brought up one obvious example. I agree with your assessment of facts and what is normative...just pointing out what may be an established mean of a different kind. 10-2-1 with 10 straight up wins as a dog is pretty impressive. (I will say not all of those favorites were more talented in all likelihood) Anyway...wasn't really arguing against your post. I just think the TH underdog angle is an intriguing wrinkle in this match up...given the circumstances you rightly state. If I were some of UT's talent, I'd be sick of hearing about LSU's at this point and ready to prove what's what. Like Majestic said...Let's get it on and find out!
I predict major gridlock on the streets of Austin* during the period of noon 9/6/19 through noon 9/8/19, thanks to the projected influx of an estimated 100,000-150,000 LSU fans *worse than usual, even
Seen a lot of duplicate scores on this thread. @Dionysus perhaps give bonus points in a tie to the first person to pick the winner? Or too much additional work? (Added column to sort by date picked?)
I understand the reasoning but that would penalize someone who makes a good prediction but maybe doesn't frequent the board as often as others. We can figure out a tie-breaker later if we need to.
My heart wants to pick Texas but my brain says otherwise. Texas - 17 LSU - 31 I believe that the lack of a pass rush will be the downfall and we will get picked apart in the passing game.
I already made my pick, but I wish I can change it. This LSU bunch is way too confident, it will be their downfall. They are talking a good game just like gawga.
