Prediction for how Texas does this year

I haven’t been shy about my positive opinion of ShakaBall and the talent on this team. It’s time to take a firm stand on how this team is going to do this year. I believe that the B12 is the deepest BBall conference in D1 and there are some really good teams on our schedule. Road wins are going to be tough across the board and if we don’t exploit our home court advantage it’s going to cost us. Here is the current AP ranking and records for all B12 teams:

AP Rank.….B12 Team.….…W-L..…….%.....Streak………PF……...PA
…#2…….……Kansas…..….….9-1….…0.900…..W8………..89.8…..66.1
…#3…….……Oklahoma.….…8-0….…1.000…..W8………..87.8…..64.4
…#5…….……Iowa St….….….9-1….....0.900……L1….…….84.8…...69.3
…#20………..W. Virginia…...9-1….…0.900…..W2………..85.9…...59.9
…#16………..Baylor……...…..8-2….…0.800……L1………...82.4…...63.1
..………………Texas Tech….…8-1….…0.889…..W7……….76.6…...65.1
…..……………Kansas State….8-2….…0.800……W1………73.8…...64.2
……..…………TEXAS……......…8-3….…0.727……W6………76.9…...67.9
………..………Okla State…..…7-4….…0.636……L1….…….72.6…...65.4
…………..……TCU………….......5-4….…0.556……W1…….…73.8…...68.1
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/conferences/standings/_/id/8/big-12-conference

Wow. 5 teams currently ranked with 3 in the top 10 (likely 2 after Iowa St. drops after their loss to N. Iowa; Baylor’s loss to aggy shouldn’t drop them out of the top 25, but they should be below WV). If we can beat UConn in our next game, Texas should be the 6th ranked team when conference play starts January 2nd.

My prediction is that Texas places third in conference play and it could be higher depending upon how much our play improves as the season progresses. I predict a 20+ win season and Texas will be an at-large pick for the tourney if they don’t get an automatic bid.

Okay, I’m on the record now. What do you think?

 

We should finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th. You never know how conference upsets will shuffle the deck. I predict a 6 seed or higher in the NCAA barring a rash of injuries or some such.

 

The B12 is the toughest conference, top to bottom, in the nation. So finishing 4th or 5th gets us into the Big Dance. And that's all we need to make a little noise.

Big change this year is that, I predict, we will NOT be one and done in the March tourney.

 

Doing some research, I believe that Baylor’s record is deceiving. So, they might not be as tough as their current ranking.

Strength of Schedule (to date)
Rank....School……..……W-L………..SOS…………Opponent Winning %
16……….Texas……………8-3……..…0.6069……………0.6480 (19)
17……….Iowa St…………9-1………..0.6032……………0.6335 (22)
28……….Texas Tech…..8-1………..0.5875……………0.6196 (31)
104……..Oklahoma……8-0………..0.5351…………….0.5351 (181)
109………Kansas………..8-1………..0.5309…………….0.5182 (149)
111………Kan St…………8-2…………0.5295……………..0.5095 (165)
183………W. Virg……….9-1………..0.4968………………0.4702 (220)
228……….TCU……………5-4………..0.4750………………0.4522 (247)
241……….Okla St………7-4…………0.4693………………0.4274 (277)
271……….Baylor……….8-2…………0.4530………………0.4131 (291)

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/sos

We’ll see how Baylor does when they start conference play. Color me not impressed. Only three power conference games (Vandy, Oregon & aggy), and they lost 2 (Ore & aggy) and just beat Vandy by 2. http://www.baylorbears.com/sports/m-baskbl/sched/bay-m-baskbl-sched.html

Tech in Lubbock is our first conference game. That is going to be a tough game and will be a good win if we can get it.

 

If I am reading your chart correctly, then UT has played the 16th toughest schedule in the country. That is pretty salty. Our won-loss record just got more impressive!

 

Iowa State and Oklahoma are the only teams that scare me in the B12. Kansas is, well, Kansas. But I think they can be inconsistent and will drop a few games. Oklahoma powered up big time after losing only one starter from last year. Iowa State is also stacked but their year 1 coach doesn't have major conference exposure and I think that holds them back. Baylor is a soft imposter as Möbius points out. Tech will play tough in Lubbuttock and we know Tubby can coach. WVA's squad is an oddity to me but Huggy can coach.

I think we drop both to OU, split Iowa St., and Kansas and lose a couple of random off night road games to scrubs.. Probably Tech and KSt. Finish 12-6, 22-9. #4 seed, make it to conference semis. #6 seed in the Dance and get knocked off in the sweet 16.

That's my conservative opinion. Big12 is THE power basketball conf. this year. I think the Big12 gets 2 teams in the final four. Shaka wins newcomer of the year award over Prohm.

I'd be ecstatic with an outcome remotely close to this scenario.

 

Top 5 in the Big 12, top 8 seed in the tournament and 2 wins and a nail biter in the Sweet 16!!! Too close to call........

 

It all depends on free throw shooting. As Freshmen get better and the rest get into the Shaka system, we could be in the thick of things if the charity stripe doesn't get us beat...Same holds true for the women's team. Free throws ....only thing holding them back.....SMH

 

Baylor basketball schedules patsies at the same rate the football team does. Hmmmmmm.

 

Crap. With Cam out for the foreseeable future, I've got to change my season prediction. Missing Cam, I think that we finish 5th or better. I still think that we make the Tourney but it's likely going to be a much tougher row to hoe without Cam.

 

I don't think this team will win 20 games or make the tourney without Cam. 7th place finish in the conference. Too young and too small. Sadly. I had high hopes for this team. Those hopes are gone.

 

Agreed Mobius. And this is precisely why I qualified my first post in the thread.

 

Txlndagt, I know that I view the world through burnt orange colored glassed, but I honestly believe that the freshmen are going to provide the three point firepower, combined with Felix, that Shaka needs to power his offense. And, along with Ibeh's D help, I'm betting that Cleare steps up and performs at a level that provides an offensive lift that we need to make us a very tough team to beat. I'm not dissing your opinion, just pointing out the strides that Davis and Mack have made as well as "Snoop" Roach's sporadic improvement. I am positive that this is not a Barnes team that folds when things get tough and falls apart because of lack of team cohesion. This team is going to rally around each other and play quality Skakaball that is going to be tough to beat. Don't give up hope. First step will be beating TTech at home tomorrow. If we beat Tech, that's a big step in the right direction. FYI, I'll be hoarse before I'm finished watching that game if it is close because I yell at the TV like I did at the Drum during Lemmon's days.

 

I appreciate your optimism Mobius. I do. I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic. if the Big 12 wasn't so damn tough, or if we'd been able to ease into league play 12-0 like we could have, my predictions would be a little different. It's going to be tough to beat half the teams in our league one time, much less both meetings.

Losing Cam forces everyone to play a different style now. Chemistry is completely different. Lineup changes, schemes, output reduction, unmet expectations from guys having to play in different roles: will all be hurdles. We needed momentum to get through Big 12 play, not setbacks.

Without an effective 4/5 providing a post threat, opposing teams are going to be able to exploit that (like UConn) and push out their backcourt on defense and disrupt our perimeter shooters, and convert more of their paint possessions on offense. Ibeh is our best rim protector and if he can play smarter (less aggressively) and not get into foul trouble so early, and just settle in and convert more consistently on offense, thats a good look for us. But Prince has work to do and he needs more minutes too. Cleare (as we've discussed here) has the most upside in the post, but all in all he's not conditioned to be a major post threat either, yet.

If Shaka runs 4 guards with Ibeh at Center: really utilize our depth and speed and stick to the press, create lots of TO's, frustrate the hell out of Big 12 opponents, get good looks behind the arc and just outscore everyone, I think we win those contests. But I don't see him doing that much. I dont think Shaka is going to deviate from what he's been doing - trying to stay somewhat sizeable in the post by rotating bigs and just letting the young guys get minutes and try to produce what they can. Which means we're going to stay in foul trouble, and we're going to end up in a lot of close contests where FTs are going to decide outcome in the waning minutes. Not ideal for us.

I'll be the first to admit I was wrong though and will gladly eat my words if Shaka and the boys can find a groove and overcome the Cam loss. Tech at United will be a good road test for us. I have the utmost faith in Smart to continue to adjust and get the most out of this squad.

 

Texas places second to last in conference ahead of TCU, wins 4 total conference games. 12 wins on the season

 

Although five seniors returned this year, only Ridley, Felix and Lammert have big roles to fill on this team. By far, Ridley is the most important. Felix a distant 2nd with his three point shooting, and then Lammert with his contributions on all levels, is third on the list. Ibeh can block shots every now and then, but he is not a difference maker. He gives up more points by committing unnecessary fouls than he prevents via his defense.

Taylor is the big dog now, and boy is he good. But he is not enough. We have no strong inside game. Either offensively or defensively, or rebounds. Essentially, the team has no depth, especially inside. Our freshmen will get better and by next year we will have some serious game. But Cleare will have to develop quickly, and hopefully some recruits to fill the vacuum.

I don't see how we finish in the top half of the conference this year. Mainly because it is the toughest conference in the country top to bottom.

 

As excited as I am about Shakaball in the future, Ridley's going down for the year will turn this year into a mess.
UNLESS the team shoots 70%-75% from the free throw line (vs the 62% we're shooing now)
UNLESS Tevin Mack can start shooting 35%-40% from the field (28% now), and over 75% from the free throw line (67% now)
UNLESS Cleare can shoot better than his current 60% from the free throw line
UNLESS Kevin Roach can shoot upwards of 35%-38% from the 3-point line and 70% from the free throw line (now 52%)
UNLESS Prince Ibeh can get to 50% from the free throw line (now 18%),
I see this year as a total bust. If these current shooting percentages continue, I see only 4 more wins in the Big XII......
Funny thing is, all of our competition's freshmen are shooting far above what our "hot shooting" freshmen are.
Sad to say, it's not looking good for the rest of the year.
I sure wish Shaka had Ridley and could have made a big splash in his first year. But it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

 

I'm changing my tune. I think we'll win exactly 20 games and pick up an at large bid based on conference difficulty-strength of schedule and quality wins over what should end up being 4 or 5 top #20 opponents. We have #3 UNC, #17 ISU, and we should grab another from Baylor and WVU who will both be ranked when we beat them. Simply based on the law of averages which dictates to me that exactly 50% of the games we play like world beaters and the other 50%, well, you know.

 

I wish I could have your optimism. If wishes were Steers, we'd ride in style.

 

I sure hope you are correct in your prognostication. You make some really good points.

I'm thinking we win 8 or 9 of the remaining games which brings us to 18 or 19 wins. Nineteen wins puts us square on the bubble. This includes one win the B12 tourney. I think we get swept by ku and okla; win our home games with everybody else. If we get really hot from three point land we have a shot to steal one from ku or okie.

When Isiah plays at his top level we have a shot against anyone. But the other guys have to help him.

The wild card, to me, is Cam. If he returns in the last week of Feb, by the B12 tourney and gives us 15 or 20 minutes a game the we have a real shot to win more than one game in the conference tourney and then we go to the big dance. With Taylor and Cam playing we might get to the Sweet Sixteen. Our freshmen will be pretty salty by then, imho. Also, with the additional PT Ibeh and Cleare are getting they would be in a position to provide decent minutes subbing for Cam till he rounds into shape enough to play more minutes.

 

I asked an NCAA athletic trainer I know about that injury and he said for a big man, it was easily a 10 week to boot off, 2 week aggressive rehab, rest and recovery. 3 months from late December would put him into post March madness. I don't see how Cam would be able to insert at any point in the season. I don't know that him coming back to finish a couple tournament games would help either though. Having been dormant and out of the adjusted system for so long would be potentially more of a hindrance. Similar to last year when Taylor got back into the game towards the end after his wrist injury; he still wasn't 100% and it interfered with the dynamic The team had created without him in the lineup.

 

Ouch. I did not know this was the recovery schedule for Cam's type of injury. This is hard to hear on many levels. Sounds like Ibeh and Cleare are it for the five slot for the rest of the season. Wish Cam the best for NBA draft and beyond.

 

Nice call. We only have one more conference game to win. Which one do you think it will be, Nostradamus?

 

Hmm, sensing the slightest bit of sarcasm with your post. Seeing as Texas has lost on the road to two of the weakest teams in the conference, my prediction may not be that far off at the end of the season.

While I'll admit I did not think this team would beat Iowa State at home, I'll still stand by my projection. Don't think this team will finish much higher than the bottom of the conference, not because they aren't any good, but they just aren't as good as the rest of their competition in the Big 12

 

Got it. You stand by your prediction: Texas wins one more game all season long.

If that was a Vegas line, I'd bet my mortgage on the over.

 

"The common timetable for recovery from such an injury is six to eight weeks, which would mean a return at some point in late February. Ridley will undergo surgery on Tuesday and head coach Shaka Smart said Monday that he is "really, really hopeful" that his starting center will be able to return at some point this season."

Cowboys' DE Demarcus Lawrence fractured his foot last year and was back playing in 8 weeks. He said he likely could've played in 6th or 7th week but was ineligible due to an 8-week IR designation. Lawrence is a big man and the stress he put on the healed foot taking on 300+ pounders is enormously more demanding than a basketball center.

This season Dez Bryant fractured his foot (same type as Lawrence) on 9/13 and was back playing on 11/1.

Unless Ridley has an atypical, more expansive fracture...8 weeks is the norm...as referenced in the quote in the beginning.

As for predictions...18-13 before the conf tourney. Win one and lose one in conf tourney and fall a game short of dancing.

 

I'm not saying that I still think Texas is only going to win one more game. But I made the prediction when I made it, and whether or not it was shortsighted by frustration with the team's performance at the time, I'm still standing by the prediction that I made. If it's wrong, I'll eat crow, and if it's right, I'll have stood by it.

@Sangre Naranjada, I understand that you are not the biggest fan of mine, and I get it, but I think we both agree that we'll be happy if my prediction was wrong.

 

I will be happy, no doubt. I suspect you will be too, though I am certain it won't stop you from vomiting your frustrations all over the board every time we play poorly.

 

The extent of his fracture hasn't really been made public but we can assume its the most severe grade because it required surgery. Ask any ortho; a foot fracture that requires surgery is the most severe form of that type of injury. Fractures that are six to eight weeks to recover are not usually ones that require surgery and usually apply to people that are of average stature. Cam Ridley is 6'9", 285. I'm no Physicist but I'd estimate someone hauling that much density around is at a much higher risk for re-injury. I sure hope he comes back in time for some tournament play - but I would rather he wait as long as possible and be 100% healed in the event he has a shot at an NBA D League opportunity.

 

6'3, 250 DeMarcus Lawrence broke his foot on 7/30 and had surgery shortly after.
This quote was a month into his rehab...

"DeMarcus Lawrence is a month away from practicing and six weeks from being eligible to play in a game, but the Dallas Cowboys rookie defensive end received some good news on Monday. Lawrence had his surgically-repaired right foot examined by doctors and was told "everything's on track with my recovery."

Sure Ridley is a bigger man, but there's no comparison on the amount of force Lawrence's surgically-repaired foot had to absorb as a DE upon return. Ridley isn't blasting into 300+ pound monster RT's like Lawrence was in 2014.

For the record, Dez also had surgery on his broken foot and played 8 weeks later.

"Bryant tweeted that his surgery, which repaired a fracture to the fifth metatarsal of his right foot, “went great.” He could begin conditioning as early as two-to-three weeks into his rehab."

Just saying, surgery is not uncommon with a broken foot, nor is a return in 8 weeks.