Since it’s only 11 Days, 1 hour, 50 minutes... I thought it might be time to get on the record for the 2018 campaign. So here goes. My Mendoza Line is 9 wins. Last year it was 8 and, on a wing and a prayer, we struggled to find 7. 9 wins this year would not really impress me or perhaps any of the recruits, but I believe it to be a baseline below which we cannot fall. I personally think we need 10 wins to really show momentum, so that’s what I will go with for the season, 10 wins. That includes the bowl game. I think we will be stronger at the QB position with more experience and more depth, stronger at the RB position with a portfolio of options, and stronger in the OL which, of course, is critical. I also think we have some likely breakout players, including Collin Johnson and Hager. Maybe Kirk Johnson? (Wouldn’t that be a nice surprise?) It wouldn’t surprise me if our secondary is a strength, and that the young guns make their mark early. My biggest concern, aside from injuries and the unpredictability of the QB position, is the offensive play-calling. I think that more than 10 wins is not unattainable but I am trying to manage my annual tendency for dilution at this time of the year.
I say 10 wins total. We'll lose a couple among OU, TCU and USC. No sure losses on the schedule, but outside Tulsa and Kansas, and Baylor, nobody that couldn't play out of their minds and beat us.
I am being overly optimistic and going with 11-1. At the very least, I hope we finally do better than 8-5 as we have not hit that since Mack Brown.
I say 10-3 with a loss in the bowl game to Georgia and Rising the 4th quarter QB. You read it here first. Then comes the inspired recruiting; we get a surprise flip and we finish 6th in recruiting for 2019 when it's all said and done.
If Herman takes a more active role in the offense like people have been saying he has during the offseason I think 9 wins will happen. Possibly even 10 with what may be a down year in the conference with all the turn around at the QB spot.
I'd love to believe it, but I haven't seen one shred of evidence we can consistently run the ball against good defenses. I've heard all this before. 8-4, with visible improvement. If we get to OU week with only one loss, I'll revise that.
9 wins is my personal Mendoza line too. I have faith in Herman, and more faith in McKnight than any other S&C coach in a long time. I'm thinking 9 wins regular season plus a 10th in the bowl game.
I'm sticking with my earlier prediction... 9-3 plus a bowl win Losses against TCU and Iowa State (a team I think will suprise people) and one more Don't care who we play or beat in a bowl...let's just get back to that magic number 10
So many variables. OL health & success is MOST critical to the season, closely followed by QB execution and play calling..... The return of Beck at TE cannot be overlooked as a VERY positive factor for the O. Heart says 10-2 and brain says a soft 9-3... I'll go with the brain at this point. Regardless... I especially want a win this season over ou!
I shall reserve comment until I find out if: 1) We have a QB that can read a defense, and said QB is actually on the field 2) We have a QB on the field that can throw a ball farther than 30 yards to a wide open receiver. 3) We throw a fade to a 6'6' WR against a 5'10" DB in man coverage 4) Our coaching staff decides to exploit the opponents weaknesses - see also 2017 OU. 5) Beck or Hager is in at FB on goalline offense
I cannot believe we are only 10.5 days out from the season. My how time flies. I predict 10 wins including the bowl. I think we get to a good bowl and lose that one to drop to 10-3. Hopefully, TH learned his lesson (on the job) last year and stays much more involved in the play calling. We may even win the bowl game and go 11-2 or so. That would put us top 10! TH just needs to be calling plays. That is critical.
I never learned to not get excited about an upcoming season so I bet a coworker a whopping $10 on a victory against USC and double or nothing on beating OU. With that said I cant bear to guess the number of victories this year so I'll officially abstain from submitting a number. I am convinced we'll win more than last year.
I am right with you. The stretch of USC, TCU, KSU, and OU is brutal. I think we only emerge 2-2 from that series. I think we also drop either OSU (in Stillwater) or W. Va. with a very good Grier at QB. Essentially I think we go 3-3 against our 6 best opponents. Remember we still have complete question marks at O-line, TE, and RB. Those units put nothing on the field last year that can be relied on.
I just don't think we've gotten over the "win every game we're supposed to win" hump quite yet. The Tech game from last year is the kind of game that happens early in September, not the end of the season. I'm shooting for an 8-4 regular season, with 9-3 a very real possibility. I highly doubt we fall to 7-5, but if we did, I don't think it would jeopardize Herman's position. The definite wins are Tulsa, Baylor, Tech, and KU. The "most likely" remaining wins are Maryland, OK State, and Iowa State. Losing any of those games would be a serious kick in the crotch after what we endured in close games last season. Here's the other games on the slate: USC - I'd love to see more about how they've replaced some of their best players, including QB, before rendering a judgment either way. I think it'll be about as close as last year's game, unless one side goes all turnover crazy. TCU - I'm pretty much chalking this one up as a big fat L right now. I'd love to be proven wrong, but Patterson just has it out for us and knows our weaknesses better than any other coach in the conference. Playing them early doesn't bode well for us either. I think it'll look a lot like the 2012 game where we just kind of walked in at home expecting to win and look like crap on offense. KSU - Delton is going to turn heads this year. He nearly beat OU singlehanded last season, and when he played against us, we had a tough time stopping him. Unless he's injured or something, I don't know how easy it'll be to go into Manhattan and deliver a W. OU - I think it kind of depends on what lessons the team has learned before October. If we're resilient like last year's game, I think we win. But if we have brain farts and allow another 17-point lead early, I doubt we'll come back. If Ehlinger can trust his OL and receivers more than last year, and only take off as an absolute last resort, we should win. WVU - I had this one as a "probably" W but I think we got lucky last year when Grier went down against us. I'm sure he has revenge on the mind and we'll see if all our freshmen DBs can keep up. I still think we win because we'll be prepared by then and at home.
You can't do that. That's like saying you'll call the coin after it's flipped. Duke asked for a prognostication. Anyone can make an accurate prediction after all the variables are known. I nailed it last year with a 7-6 guess before the season started. I'll go 8-5 this year.
I hear where you are coming from Horns11. I am more optimistic against TCU than most. Yes, they are highly ranked and Patterson does seem to have our number but I think this season bodes well for us. My hope is that Texas is riding a high from beating USC and TCU is down in the dumps from an OSU loss at the time of the game. I know some people think the game after a big win can be a let down, but I think this team needs confidence more than it needs to be on alert for being over-confident. I don't think any of our players think we waltz over competitive teams like TCU right now. That just isn't Texas right now. We might overlook Iowa State, but not TCU. Also, TCU is replacing a lot on offense. QB and 4 of 5 o-linemen. Their D will be salty as always, but so will ours. First team to 17 probably wins. I like our odds.
I can I did I will continue to do so until those variables get resolved. This team can win 12 games, but won't. It can lose 10 games, but won't. So it comes down to coaching, preparation, having the right people on the field at the right time, and COMMON SENSE! I expected too much last year and was disappointed in the small things that I expect a high priced coaching staff to fix. Hence, I want more, expect more, and deserve more than the amateur hour I got in 2017. I shall attend every game as I have for 48 years, but want the passion and hunger than Mack Brown's last teams lacked, and the ingame stupidity by the coaches that I witnessed last year to have been corrected.
^^^^ I think that statement sums it up for most of us about last season. The bar is much higher for TH and his staff this season. Expectations for much better attention to detail, approach and preparation AND much better game day decision making - as you said use COMMON SENSE!
LOL^^ I was nodding my head at every point until this one. I like it, if only for the entertainment value of seeing Hager in the backfield. Brain says go with 8-4 and a bowl win to get to 9. I fear QB position will cost us more in tight situations than help us, until I'm proven wrong. I hope I'm proven wrong, and the QB position actually wins us a game or two.
I agree with Dukesteer that 9 wins is the Mendoza line. I see 3 probable losses on the schedule. I think we win one of those 3, but lose 1 that we shouldn't. So, I predict 10 - 3 with a bowl win......... and pain.
I think the ceiling is 8-4 so we finish either 9-4 or 8-5. Either way, pretty ho-hum. Still not sold on Tommy. For at least the 5th year in a row, coaching continues to be the weak link. I’ll jump on the bandwagon if we ever get rolling. Until then, I’ll observe from afar.
I think 8 is the ceiling. This team & staff have David McWilliams written all over them, i fear, like the 1990 paper tigers
