But crimea was always part of Russia. Europe fought a really stupid war over this in the 1850s. See “The Charge of the Light Brigade.” Putin only “invaded” after a non-democratic pro-EU coup overthrew the democratically elected government. I would agree with you if he had invaded all of Ukraine or all of Georgia. Instead he took only the part of Georgia with his pipeline, his navel port (which should have been part of russia in the first place) and he has half-heartily supported eastern Ukraine in their civil war. Those are not the actions of an aggressor. Those are defensive actions.
And that is also why I dont think he has any plans of actually attacking a NATO country or doing anything that would lead to a real conflict. When push comes to shove, he is a mafia boss. He is bad, sure. He wants wealth, he wants power, but he is not interested in starting a direct conflict where he could lose everything. He wants $, not world domination. “Standing up” to the west with little border actions keeps his popularity up.
No because you are assuming some sort of crazy Falklands scenario where if we do not have tanks there, Putin will take it as a sign he can move in. I just do not think that is the case. He did not take the whole of Georgia and only is half heartily supporting eastern ukraine. He is not going to do anything that would lead to a direct conflict with NATO.
The red army does not exist anymore. If there ever is a conventional war between nuclear powers on NATO soil, it will quickly turn nuclear.
I will also add, I am not sure we can trust the western Ukraine any more than Russia.
Last edited: May 30, 2018