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Discussion in 'On The Field' started by militaryhorn, Sep 4, 2021.
Mine's under my left elbow as I type
I have two questions about this year's scoring formula for the prediction contest. These should be clarified before controversy erupts about the all-important quest for HornFans swag, not to mention everlasting fame.
Picking the Game Winner
Clearly, picking the correct winner should have significant weight. If Texas wins by 1, an entrant who picked Texas by 4 should rank ahead of an entrant who picked a 1-point Texas loss, even though the former was off by 3 points and the latter was off by only 2.
On the other hand, I don't think picking the correct winner should be an absolute requirement. Suppose the following scenario:
Texas is playing against a weak team. All entrants but one predict Texas by 20 points or more.
One entrant picks Texas to lose, by a score of 29-28.
Texas wins, 29-28.
In this scenario, I would argue that the only entrant who picked the wrong winner actually made the best prediction.
In prior years, there was a penalty (10 points iirc) for picking the wrong winner. So in the above scenario, the 29-28 pick was two points off, plus a penalty of 10 for getting the wrong winner, yielding a total score of 12. That would rank ahead of the posters who correctly picked Texas to win, but with point differentials larger than 12.
This issue would only matter in close games, which presumably will happen at some point.
Is the prediction contest for the regular season only, or do CCG, bowl, and/or playoff games count? And if they do count, are they equally weighted or do they count extra?
I would say that picking the winner is foremost in determining weekly scores. If you don't pick the correct winner the point difference is irrelevant. The only reason I scored the Arkansas game is that every prediction had Texas winning.
It was suggested that I have a minimum number of predictions in order to qualify for the Texas swag prizes.
I suggest that the winners have to have a minimum number of predicted scores of 8.
I was thinking we could go the full season plus any games after the regular season. We could weight the post season more but what would be the point?
You da boss. I disagree, but what does that matter?
In prior years, that made sense because scores were added together, and lower scores were better. But with this year's scoring system, there is no advantage to be gained by skipping a game and hence no need to discourage it.
That said, at the risk of repeating myself, you da boss.
I agree with you on this one. But if you change your mind -- you da boss.
I wish I was da boss, lol @Dionysus came ranting and raving at me about the minimum stuff...j/k of course but I am going to have a thread on improving my current layout to implement for next year. At that point, all suggestions will be considered for improving the experience and voted on to carry out next year.
I updated the Overall Standings to include the number of predictions that an individual has submitted.
You will need 8 predictions to qualify for Texas Swag prizes.
How do we have people included in the standings that have made zero predictions? Are they week 4 late-comers?
They are new to this week and I will count their prediction when I do the weekly update after the game.
After much rumination,
Could you please put this on the Week 4 Prediction Thread?
Ah dang it. Yup.
Here are the results for Week 4
Overall Standings have been updated also.
What does @LonghornCatholic win THIS week?
Asking for a friend.
I know nothing will be changed (or even discussed) until the end of the year, but I’m putting this here so the point isn’t overlooked at that time.
The formula in past years has been (team A point differential) + (team B point differential) + (margin-of-victory differential). I haven’t looked closely enough at the results in recent weeks to notice that margin of victory doesn’t count for anything this year.
I could come up with a hypothetical example to illustrate the point, but this week’s actual results will do just fine. A number of posters (me, @mb227, @theiioftx, …) correctly picked a high-scoring blowout. But we were all edged out by none other than @militaryhorn, who picked Texas in a fairly close game.
I truly appreciate the effort @militaryhorn puts into managing the contest, and I don’t want this to come across as a criticism because that’s not my intent. I just want to make sure this oversight gets fixed for next year.
All valid points. TBH, I put this together last minute before the first game and I am sure we as a group can come up with something better for next year, if you agree to have me run it again.
My mindset at the time was just simple point differential and a way to break ties. I would like to have a better way that takes more into consideration but it will also have to be something that I can calculate easily in Excel. This helps in making it easier to manage and not take to much of my time.
@NJlonghorn I know you mentioned margin of victory in your post but I think the whole point of the prediction contest is to come as close as someone can to predicting the actual scores of each team.
Otherwise, we could just have a margin of victory prediction. In your scenario, if I would have predicted a final of 37 - 63 for Texas and you with 21 - 56 for Texas who has the better prediction? Me who missed by a total of 9 points combined or you with a perfect margin of victory?
in prior years, the scoring in your hypothetical scenario would have been:
you — 7 for TX, 2 for TT, and 9 for MOV = 18
me — 14 for TX, 14 for TT, and 0 for MOV = 28
And in yesterday’s actual scenario:
you — 22 for TX, 2 for TT, and 24 for MOV = 48
me — 14 for TX, 11 for TT, and 3 for MOV = 28
This isn’t the only valid formula, of course. But I do think it was a pretty good one.
FWIW, I have no expectation of winning under either formula. I use this contest as an opportunity to pump sunshine, not to actually make predictions. It just happened to work for me the last 2 week. Hopefully it will keep working, all the way to a 46-17 prediction against Bama in the National final. (Not even I am crazy enough to pick a 30-point win in that one.)
Easy to do in Excel, btw.
Margin of victory was calculated as an absolute value. I helped Dio with the old formula.
Let's see if I can remember how we did it.
Texas 20, opponent 10
Contestant A picks Texas 17, opponent 7
Contestant B picks Texas 40, opponent 30
Contestant C picks Opponent 20, Texas 10
Contestant A has 6 points (3 off for Texas score, 3 off for opponent score, correct MOV)
Contestant B has 40 points (20 off for Texas score, 20 for opponent, 0 for MOV)
Contestant C has 40 points (10 off for Texas score, 10 off for opponent score and 20 off for MOV)
Low point scorer is the winner, and the calculation of MOV punishes Contestant C for his incorrect pick.
MOV for contestant C is figured this way... Pick was Texas to "win" by (-10) points. Texas actually wins by (+10) points. Difference between those two numbers is 20. Envision a number line if it helps.
Dion did the Excel formula, and if he still has it I am sure he will share with you.
In all honesty, I don't recall how previous years were scored, but I can see how taking the MOV into consideration can make a difference in the results.
At the end of the year, I will just get all the feedback and make suggestions for next year. Once we get a consensus on what people want I will implement it.
I get the math and know how to do it in Excel.
I got nothing to do today. I can go back to the previous weeks and see what happens with the results. If @NJlonghorn comes out on top we can call it good,
Reviewing my spreadsheet from the 2019 contest. Objective is to get a low number. I don't know if this is the ideal method but it’s how we did it.
Example from the KSU game, a 27-24 Texas win. Final spread is 3.
Hornfan A picked Texas to win 34-21.
Missed the Texas score by 7, missed the KSU score by 3. Spread diff = 10.
Their score on this game is 10 because that’s their spread diff, and they picked the winner so no penalty. (Picking the wrong winner adds 10 points to your score.)
Hornfan B picked KSU to win 38-31.
Missed the Texas score by 4, missed the KSU score by 14. Spread diff = 18 ... plus a 10 point penalty for picking the wrong winner, so their score on this game is 28.
Hornfan C won this week, predicting a 28-24 Texas win.
Missed the Texas score by 1, got the KSU score correct. Spread diff = 1, picked the winner ... weekly score = 1.
I had another spreadsheet tab where I tracked everyone’s weekly score, or a value of "NP" to indicate weeks where they did not make a prediction. The rule was a minimum of nine picks over the season to be considered for the season win because cumulative scoring is tallied at the end. Skin in the game required.
I calculated each week if I included MOV and Point Total into the weekly calculations and here is a comparison between the current way and the possible new way.
This is why I hate math.
Not to worry all, I will continue to prop up the top 10, or most likely the top 15, or 20, or whatever.