Because of people like my college buddy, Ian Davis Hillary could never match what Obama volunteers have been doing on the ground for over a year. She's mainly been banking on the establishment and endorsements. But Obama's tidal wave of grassroots support will be the difference on Tuesday, especially at the caucus level.
Nothing against your friend but if Clinton loses in a close one, it will be because of Republicans crossing over (which will have zero to do with Dem volunteres). The vagaries of presidential primaries have somehow conspired to give Texans a once in a lifetime opportunity to strike a blow against the Clintons and their grand ambitions (devine intervention?). I dont expect that opportunity is lost on many who are paying attention. I know its not a lost point among my circle in urban Houston.
The Dems in my family are trying to get me to cross over and they are almost split. I still doubt I do it though because I don't want either to win actually.
I just got back from sitting around smoking cigars and drinking with a group of mainly Republicans and most either have or are talking about voting for HCR in the Dem primary. I couldn't even begin to tell you the numbers of cross over voters, or which candidate Republican crossovers are going to vote for more. I do know that with the McCain having nearly locked up the Repub nomination there are going to be many crossovers. We will see who will benefit more. I wrote the above before reading the article. Now that I have read it I have a couple of other comments... Basically, this guy who has no real job, but earns enough money to pay his parents rent is the exact type of person who is going to push Obama over the top into victory. This is the exact type of thing that scares me about Obama.
I have a healthy mix of Dem and Republican friends, it is pretty much split. Also, none described a hatred of Hillary, those voting against her simply do not like her policy ideas.
I still do not see hate as anything positive. I am horrified by the last 8 years of W, but have never stated I hate the man. Sorry I do not get the hate motivation.
I personally know the Romneys and they firmly believed all through their campaigning that Obama's campaign was the most impressive machine they had ever seen and that he would be a beast to beat if it continued to grow the way it was growing.
His campaign is already a beast. Very well organized, could even be more so than W's last 2 elections.
There are Ian Davis's all over the country which is why Obama will be the next president. Our steering committee in SD is 14 months old now and is still very active even though our primary was on Super Tuesday. We have at least 500 volunteers making calls into Texas. My wife probably spent 5 hours calling on our vacation in Maui sitting on the balcony watching whales breaching in the distance with a Lava Flow in one hand and a phone in the other, and a wireless laptop in her lap providing the phone numbers. (I hate phone banking, but nonetheless have put in many hours making phone calls in CA and into Nevada.) And yes, if anyone wants to talk issues with Ms. SDhorn, she knows most if not all of Obama’s positions. But mostly, the phone calls just remind people when the primary is, explain the caucus procedure, and identify supporters who will be contacted on election day if the polling stations do not indicate they have voted. If you can actually get your supporters to the polls, you dramatically increase your chances of winning. In a race in 06, my candidate would have won if only half of the Dems who had permanent absentee ballots on their kitchen counters but did not vote would have voted. The Obama campaign is also very good for the Dem party. The SD Dem party was almost non-existent before 04. The energetic refugees from the grassroots Clark and Dean campaigns have transformed the SD party into a very active organization, but our precinct captain program was relatively anemic with only 200 captains. For the Obama primary we had over 400 captains and my guess is that at least a third will continue to be active. The make-up of our steering committee is very diverse. We have lawyers, a doctor, computer scientists, writers, small business owners, under grad and grad students, a retired Repub businessman, an economist, community organizers, union political leaders, a chef, several wives of rich husbands, etc. We range in age from 19 to 84. And we can throw great parties!! I will be in Austin on business Tuesday and my wife will come with me to work on GOTV. And of course, we will not miss the celebration party or at least what we hope will be a celebration Don’t forget to participate in the caucus Tuesday night. It is not enough to simply vote in the primary. And caucuses are fun. You get to meet your neighbors and find out who they are supporting.
Republicans crossing over to vote for Obama, in the hopes of contributing to the downfall of "*****", are in the big picture only hurting McCain since BO has a higher chance of winning in November than does Hillary. If the Rs were smart, they would crossover and voter for HRC, thus guaranteeing a Republican President.
sorry naked bongo if I implied something truly negative about Ian. I know he is a buddy of yours, and I don't know him. I was only going on what was in that article. I realise today that when I posted that last night it might seem as if it were a personal attack on Ian and it wasn't meant to be that at all.
I think republicans crossing over will probably vote more for Obama. Hillary has a better than 50% chance of winning the general and that is something most repubicans cannot stand. Then again, there will some many who underestimate Hillary in the general and thus vote for her now.
